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研究生: 李美伶
論文名稱: 天津銀行業開放對其經濟成長的影響
Impact of banking industry liberalization on economic growth in Tianjin
指導教授: 黃智聰
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 行政管理碩士學程
Master for Eminent Public Administrators
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 70
中文關鍵詞: 經濟成長外資銀行中資銀行外國直接投資
外文關鍵詞: economic growth, foreign-invested banks, Chinese banks, foreign direct investment (FDI)
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  • 本研究探討天津1981年至2010年間,經濟成長與銀行放款間的關係。除了將銀行分為中資銀行及外資銀行兩類外,並且將外資直接投資因素納入考慮,檢視其在銀行放款與經濟成長間所扮演的角色。運用VECM模型實證結果發現:中資銀行及外資銀行的放款與天津市經濟成長呈現正向相關,前者效果會受到後者的影響而提升;後者與外資直接投資亦呈現正向相關,同時,證實了外資銀行「客戶追隨理論」可適用於天津。


    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與目的 1
    第二節 研究架構與流程 3
    第二章 理論基礎與相關文獻回顧 5
    第一節 金融發展與經濟成長關係的文獻探討 5
    第二節 中國大陸金融發展與經濟成長關係的文獻探討 7
    第三節 外國銀行對地主國經濟影響的文獻探討 9
    第三章 天津金融與經濟發展情形 11
    第一節 天津金融發展歷程 11
    第二節 天津經濟發展歷程 13
    第三節 天津市金融開放政策情況 17
    第四節 天津市銀行業經營情況 20
    第四章 研究設計與方法 24
    第一節 實證研究之設計 24
    第二節 相關係數分析 27
    第三節 單根檢定(Unit Root Test) 28
    第四節 共整合檢定(Cointegration Test) 30
    第五節 向量誤差修正模型(Vector Error Correction Model) 32
    第六節 Granger因果關係檢定 34
    第五章 實證結果與分析 36
    第一節 變數定義與資料來源 36
    第二節 變數變動趨勢及敘述統計概述 40
    第三節 相關係數分析 45
    第四節 ADF單根檢定實證結果 46
    第五節 Johansen共整合檢定實證結果 49
    第六節 向量誤差修正模型(VECM)實證結果分析 52
    第七節 Granger因果關係檢定 55
    第六章 結論及建議 62
    第一節 研究結論 62
    第二節 研究建議及限制 64
    參考文獻 66

    參考文獻
    一、中文部分
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    5.呂青樺、沈中華(2010),「外資銀行、城市銀行與中國的城市經濟成長」,《遠景基金會季刊》(台北),11(2),頁43-97。
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    10.張淑華(2006),「金融發展與經濟成長之因果關係-日本、台灣與韓國之實證研究」,《真理財經學報》(台北),2006(14),頁1-40。

    二、英文部分
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    5.Bencivenga, Valerie R., and Bruce D. Smith (1998),“Economic Development and Financial Depth in a Model with Costly Financial Intermediation.” Research in Economics, 52(4),363-386.
    6.C.M.Buch (2000), “Why do banks go abroad?” Journal of Financial Markets , Institution & Instruments, 9(1),40-41.
    Dages, B. Gerard, Linda Goldberg, and Daniel Kinney (2000), “Foreign and Domestic Bank Participation in Emerging Markets: Lessons from Argentina and Mexico.” Economic Policy Review, 6(3),17-36.
    7.Demetriades, Panicos O., and Khaled A. Hussein (1996), “Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-series Evidence from 16 Countries.” Journal of Development Economics, 51(2),387-411.
    8.Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Ross Levine, and Hong G. Min (1998), “Opening to Foreign Banks: Issues of Stability, Efficiency, and Growth.” In Seongtae Lee, (eds), The Implications of Globalization of World Financial Markets . Seoul:Bank of Korea. 83-115.
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    12.Fase, M. M. G., and R. C. N. Abma (2003), “Financial Environment and Economic Growth in Selected Asian Countries.” Journal of Asian Economics, 14(1),11-21.
    13.Granger, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods.” Econometrica, 37(3) ,424-438.
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    15.Greenwood, Jeremy, and Boyan Jovanovic (1990),“Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income.” Journal of Political Economy, 98(5),1076-1107.
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    20.Lehner, Maria, and Monika Schnitzer (2008), “Entry of Foreign Banks and Their Impact on Host Countries.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 36(3),430-452.
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    22.Peek, Joe, and Eric Rosengren (2000), “Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States.” The American Economic Review, 90(1),30-45.
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    三、網際網路
    1.天津智庫(2012),《天津市金融改革創新和金融業發展備忘錄》,<http://www.
    022net.com/2011/7-1/522660112821489.html>.
    2.Aziz, Jahangir and Christoph Duenwald (2002), “Growth-Financial Intermediation Nexus in China. ” IMF Working Paper, No. 02/194, International Monetary Fund, <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02194.pdf>.
    3.Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve (2003), “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Chinese Style. ”World Bank Working Paper, <http://www-wds.worldbank.
    org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2003/05/30/000094946_03052004111116/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf>.
    4.Cheng, Xiaoqiang and Hans Degryse (2006), “The Impact of Bank and Non-bank Financial Institutions on Local Economic Growth in China. ”Discussion Paper, No. 171, LICOS, <http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=53967>.
    5.Goldberg, Linda, B. Gerard Dages and Daniel Kinney (2001), “When is U.S. Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile. ”Staff Reports, No.119, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, <http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_ reports/ sr119.html>.
    6.Khan, Mohsin S. and Abdelhak S. Senhadji (2000), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview. ” IMF Working Paper, No. 00/209, International Monetary Fund, <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/
    wp00209.pdf>.

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