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| 研究生： |
李承翰 Lee, Cheng-Han |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
台灣職業籃球洋將效益之三層次分析：以2023–24年PLG賽季為例 A Three-Level Analysis of Foreign Player Effectiveness in Taiwanese Professional Basketball: Evidence from the 2023–24 PLG Season |
| 指導教授： |
吳文傑
Wu, Wen-Chieh |
| 口試委員: |
孫秉宏
嚴萬軒 |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
社會科學學院 - 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) International Master's Program of Applied Economics and Social Development(IMES) |
| 論文出版年： | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度： | 113 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 113 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 洋將 、勝率 、邏輯斯迴歸 、球隊風格 、PLG聯盟 、籃球數據分析 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | foreign players, win probability, logistic regression, team style, P. LEAGUE+, basketball analytics |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：19 下載：0 |
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本研究探討洋將（外籍球員）對台灣 P. LEAGUE+（PLG）職業籃球隊勝率的影響。在聯盟對洋將依賴程度日益加深、戰術角色日趨多元的情況下，球隊在選擇合適洋將時常面臨缺乏量化工具的困境。為此，本研究建構三層次的邏輯斯迴歸分析架構，分別從洋將的比賽表現、背景特徵與所處球隊或對手的情境三方面切入，分析其與勝率之關聯性。透過集群分析將球隊類型分為進攻型、防守型與均衡型，並於聯盟層級、球隊類型與對手類型模型中評估洋將效益。研究結果顯示，二分球命中率、球隊得分、籃板與阻攻為提升勝率的顯著關鍵變數；而 NBA 經歷或得分量等傳統指標則未必具穩定影響力。此發現指出，評估洋將時不應僅依賴表面數據，而應重視其與戰術體系的契合度。最終，本研究提出「洋將使用建議矩陣」，作為台灣職業籃球隊在陣容設計與戰術規劃時的參考依據。
This study explores how foreign basketball players (imports) influence the win probability of professional teams in Taiwan’s P. LEAGUE+ (PLG). Amid increasing reliance on imports and expanding tactical roles, teams often struggle with selecting suitable players due to a lack of quantitative tools. This research constructs a three-tiered logistic regression framework to analyze the relationship between foreign players’ performance metrics, background traits, and team or opponent context. By categorizing teams into offensive, defensive, and balanced styles using cluster analysis, the study evaluates foreign player effectiveness across league-wide, team-type, and opponent-type models. Results show that two-point field goal percentage, team points, rebounds, and blocks significantly improve win probability, while traditional markers such as NBA experience or scoring volume are not consistently impactful. The findings reveal that imports must be assessed not just by raw stats but by their fit within tactical systems. The study concludes with a “Foreign Player Usage Matrix” providing practical recommendations for roster design and strategic planning in Taiwanese basketball.
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Objectives and Questions 2
1.3 Research Significance 3
1.4 Research Limitations 4
1.5 Research Structure and Process 4
Chapter 2. Literature Review 6
2.1 Thematic Background and Conceptual Definitions 6
2.2 Review of Relevant Domestic and International Studies 7
2.3 Theoretical Basis for Research Methodology and Variable Selection 10
2.4 Research Gaps and Positioning of This Study 10
Chapter 3. Research Methodology 11
3.1 Research Framework and Design Logic 11
3.2 Research Hypotheses 12
3.3 Data Sources and Processing Procedure 14
3.4 Modeling Approach and Estimation Techniques 15
3.5 Variable Definitions and Classifications 17
3.6 Model Structure and Estimation Strategy 20
Chapter 4. Empirical Analysis and Results 20
4.1 League-Level Analysis 21
4.1.1 Logistic Regression Results – League Level 27
4.1.2 Odds Ratio and Marginal Effect – League Level 32
4.1.3 Summary of the League-Level Model 38
4.2 Team-Level Model Analysis 39
4.2.1 Logistic Regression by Team-Types 52
4.2.2 Marginal Effect and Odds Ratio by Team-Types 59
4.2.3 Summary of Team-Based Models 66
4.3 Opponent Team Model Analysis 67
4.3.1 Logistic Regression by Opponent Types 86
4.3.2 Odds Ratio and Marginal Effect – by Opponent Types 93
4.3.3 Summary of Opp0nents-Based Models 98
4.4 Integrated Analysis of Team Type and Opponent Type Models 98
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 101
5.1 Summary of Research Findings and Model Review 101
5.2 Practical Implications and Strategic Recommendations 104
5.3 Research Contributions and Innovations 106
5.4 Research Limitations and Future Directions 108
5.5 Conclusion and Reflection: Building Taiwan’s Own Logic for Import Utilization 109
References 111
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Magel, R. C., & Unruh, S. (2013). Determining Factors Influencing the Outcome of College Basketball Games. *Open Journal of Statistics, 3*(4), 293–298.
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全文公開日期 2030/06/21