本文主旨在設立一個考慮遠期外匯市場之總體經濟模型，完整地將避險貿易行為、拋補利率行為及純粹投機行為綜合起來，使即期外匯市場與遠期外陸市場緊密結合。本文主要探討的問題為:

1.貨幣供給增加，即期匯率之動態調整是否有調整過度或調整不及現象?

2. 若政府的目標要使即期匯率波動變的最小，其最適貨幣政策函數為何?

在此嚐試將模型求解成完全縮減式，並且做台灣即期匯率動態調整之實證分析，其採用方法包括檢定一階自我相關、計量迴歸分析－聯立估計三條完全縮減式。

本文分析，得到下列幾項結論:

一、當投機行為大於貿易商於遠期、即期外匯市場之避險行為時，導致短期即期匯率波動超過長期均衡即期匯率波動，即產生了即期匯率過度調整的現象。反之

，當投機行為小於貿易商於遠期、即期外匯市場之避險行為時，短期即期匯率波動小於長期均衡即期匯率波動，則即期匯率有調整不及的現象。

二、政府欲使即期匯率波動變為最小，最適貨幣政策函數包括即期匯率不偏估計式、t時產出水準、t時外國利率與t - 1 時及t - 2 時之即期匯率、物價水準、產出水準、及外國利率。

三、根據台灣實證資料(民國七十五年九月至七十八年二月)之迴歸分析顯示:

(1) 三種主要即期匯率(新台幣/日幣、新台幣/馬克、新台幣/英鎊)檢定一階自我相關，發現並沒有一階自我相關情況。

(2) 此三種主要即期匯率(新台幣/日幣、新台幣/馬克、新台幣/英鎊)做聯立之迴歸分析，結果皆是即期匯率調整不及現象。也就是說，台灣這段期間，投機行為小於貿易商於遠期、即期外匯市場之避險行為。

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