中國與南韓正在從事自由貿易協定之洽簽程序，本篇論文的目的即在於評估其經濟效果。本文應用多國多部門之一般均衡模型，模擬二國農工商品完全自由化在靜態及考慮資本累積之動態效果。
實證效果顯示，上述二種模擬情境下，中國與南韓的整體社會福利都有正面效益，因此本文建議中韓應儘速完成可行性研究階段並開始諮商。如此，中國可以早日扮演建立東亞經濟整合的領導角色，而南韓也可以享受中韓自由貿易協定加上美韓自由貿易協定所產生之綜效。
目前亞洲任何一個已形成或是正在洽簽的自由貿易協定皆不包含台灣，故台灣應積極參與多邊體系下的貿易談判，以減低自由貿易協定所帶來的歧視，並應採納多樣化的協定而非拘泥於自由貿易協定之形式。同時應優先考量可以避免中國政治壓力及可擴大台灣經濟利益的議題，例如：雙邊投資協定及避免雙重課稅協定，以為洽簽正式之自由貿易協定鋪路。

關鍵字：中國、南韓、自由貿易協定、多國多部門之一般均衡分析

China and South Korea are in the process of pursuing a free trade agreement. The purpose of this study is to assess its economic effects. The paper employs CGE models and the GTAP database to conduct a simulation with full elimination of tariffs in all sectors. Two CGE models are used. One is a static CGE model that captures the short-run effects, and the other captures the static effects as well as the capital accumulation effects arising from higher savings and investment induced by the static gains.
The study finds that both South Korea and China will enjoy the welfare gains from the deals. We suggest that China and Korea complete feasibility studies and start the negotiation process at the earliest possible time for the purposes that China can play a leading role in building an East Asian economic integration and that Korea can enjoy the effects of multiple FTAs due to the Korea-China FTA plus Korea-US FTA. In addition, none of the bilateral agreements in Asia includes Taiwan. Taiwan should aggressively engage in trade negotiations under a multilateral system to decrease the discrimination caused by the free trade agreements and adopt diversified forms of agreements instead of focusing on “FTAs” only. Besides, Taiwan should prioritize the issues that can avoid the political pressure from China and expand Taiwan’s economic benefit, such as Bilateral Investment Agreement and Double Taxation Agreement, in order to pave the way for a formal FTA.

Key words: China, South Korea, Free Trade Agreement, GTAP

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