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研究生: 羅嘉言
Lo, Jia Yan
論文名稱:
Algorithmic pairs trading in the foreign exchange market
指導教授: 張元晨
Chang, Yuan chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 財務管理學系
Department of Finance
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 49
中文關鍵詞: 配對交易外匯演算法
外文關鍵詞: Pairs trading, Foreign exchange, Algorithm
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  • We implement the arbitrage strategies, Pair trading in the foreign exchange markets. Utilizing daily data from Jan. 2000 to Apr. 2014, our strategies generate Sharp ratios as high as 0.22. Based on the market neutrality and hedging characteristic in long-short investment, we provide the profitability analysis using four different approaches after considering transaction costs. These approaches consist of match with minimum distance between two normalized prices Distance); estimation of long-term equilibrium and model the resulting residuals (Cointegration); linear and Non-linear relationship between two potential assets (Correlation and Copula). With the result of CAPM test, positive and significant alpha represent our trading strategies is profitable during our sample period. The sources of excess returns reflect difference of liquidity, price pressure while executing trading and the compensation of violation in “Law of One Price"


    We implement the arbitrage strategies, Pair trading in the foreign exchange markets. Utilizing daily data from Jan. 2000 to Apr. 2014, our strategies generate Sharp ratios as high as 0.22. Based on the market neutrality and hedging characteristic in long-short investment, we provide the profitability analysis using four different approaches after considering transaction costs. These approaches consist of match with minimum distance between two normalized prices Distance); estimation of long-term equilibrium and model the resulting residuals (Cointegration); linear and Non-linear relationship between two potential assets (Correlation and Copula). With the result of CAPM test, positive and significant alpha represent our trading strategies is profitable during our sample period. The sources of excess returns reflect difference of liquidity, price pressure while executing trading and the compensation of violation in “Law of One Price"

    Table of Contents
    1. INTRODUCTION 1
    2. METHODOLOGY 5
    2.1 DISTANCE APPROACH 5
    2.1.1 Pairs selection in training period 6
    2.1.2 Open/close signal in trading period 6
    2.1.3 Assessment of trading performance 7
    2.2 COINTEGRATION APPROACH 9
    2.2.1 Pairs selection in training period 10
    2.2.1.1 Step 1 (Detecting stationary process form each currency) 11
    2.2.1.2 Step 2 (Checking the co-integration relationship) 11
    2.2.2 Open/close signal in trading period 12
    2.3 COPULA / CORRELATION APPROACH 14
    2.3.1 Pairs selection in training period 14
    2.3.2 Open/close signal in trading period 15
    2.4 OTHER APPROACHES 16
    3. DATA DESCRIPTION AND PORTFOLIO CLASSIFICATION 17
    3.1 DATA SOURCES 17
    3.2 PORTFOLIO CLASSIFICATION 19
    4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS 21
    4.1 MAIN RESULTS 21
    4.2 MARKET RISK AND VALUE AT RISK (VAR) ANALYSIS 23
    4.3 SUBPERIOD ANALYSIS 25
    5. CONCLUSION 26
    6. REFERENCES 28
    APPENDIX A 48

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