| 研究生: |
方承平 Elpeni Fitrah |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
印尼在印度洋-太平洋地區戰略方針的前景: 挑戰與侷限 The Prospect of Indonesian Strategic Approach in Indo-Pacific: Challenges and Limitations |
| 指導教授: |
劉復國
Fu-Kuo Liu |
| 學位類別: |
博士
Doctor |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS) International Doctor Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IDAS) |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 281 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 印度尼西亞 、印度洋-太平洋 、外交政策 、合法性 、地緣政治和戰略 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:48 下載:35 |
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本研究旨在探討印尼在印度洋-太平洋地區戰略方針的前景。本研究的理論依據來自多個因素,包括印尼沿亞洲中央海洋軸線的戰略地理位置、佐科-维多多總統強調海洋規章的外交政策綱領以及印尼在促進印度洋-太平洋區域構想方面的積極作用。印尼採取的戰略方針是在該地區相互競爭的地缘政治願景之間取得平衡。這一方法由三大支柱支撑:作為寶貴談判工具的獨立而積極的外交政策、作為中等強國戰略的全球海洋支點(Global Maritime Fulcrum)以及被稱為東協印太展望(ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific)的印太建設地區戰略框架的建立。
然而,國際政治固有的複雜性和不確定性史印尼的戰略方針具有一定的規範性、實用性和靈活性。因為印尼傾向於過度依賴以東協為基礎的機制來應對印太戰略挑戰。因此,印尼在印太地區的外交政策可能面臨很大的風險,導致潛在損失。為全面分析這一情況,本研究採用了政治合法性展望的模型,該模型將展望理論和新古典現實主義融入到國際關係研究中。這種研究方法可以深入研究一個國家的外交政策行為。
根據這一調查,本研究認為,印尼領導人的政治合法性對印尼在印度太平洋地區外交的決策過程有重大影響。考慮到這些因素,我們可以對印尼在該地區面臨的挑戰和機遇有更細膩的了解。
This study aims to explore the prospects of Indonesia's strategic approach in the Indo-Pacific. The rationale for this research emerges from several factors, including Indonesia's strategic geographical location along the central maritime axis of Asia, President Joko Widodo's foreign policy platform emphasizing the maritime paradigm, and Indonesia's active role in promoting the regional conception of the Indo-Pacific. The strategic approach adopted by Indonesia is to strike a balance between competing geopolitical visions in the region. This approach is underpinned by three main pillars: an independent and active foreign policy that serves as a valuable bargaining tool, the adoption of a Global Maritime Fulcrum as a middle power strategy, and the establishment of a strategic regional framework for Indo-Pacific construction known as the ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP).
However, the complexities and uncertainties inherent in international politics make Indonesia's strategic approach somewhat normative, pragmatic, and inflexible, as it tends to overly rely on ASEAN-based mechanisms to address Indo-Pacific strategic challenges. As a result, Indonesia's foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region may be exposed to a significant level of risk, leading to potential losses. To comprehensively analyze the situation, this study employs the Political Legitimacy-Prospect Model, which integrates Prospect Theory and Neoclassical Realism in the study of international relations. This approach allows for an in-depth examination of a country's foreign policy behavior.
In light of this investigation, the study contends that the perceived political legitimacy of Indonesian leaders significantly influences the decision-making process of Indonesian foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific. Taking these factors into account provides a more nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities Indonesia faces in the region.
TABLE OF CONTENT
TITLE PAGE i
AKNOWLEDGEMENT iii
ABSTRACT v
LIST OF TABLES xi
LIST FIGURES xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xiii
CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION: BASIC CONSTRUCTION OF THIS STUDY 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Puzzle and Problem Identification 6
1.3. Research Objectives 13
1.4. Literature Review 14
1.4.1. From the Asia Pacific to Indo-Pacific's Conception 17
1.4.2. The Rise of China and Its Impact on Geopolitical Shift in Indo-Pacific 20
1.4.3. Indonesia's position in the geopolitical constellation of Indo-Pacific 27
1.5. Theoretical Framework and Operationalization 32
1.5.1. Political Legitimacy-Prospect Model; a linkage between Neoclassical Realism and Prospect Theory 32
1.5.2. Theory Operationalization 37
1.6. Argument 38
1.7. Research Method 39
1.7.1. Research Type 39
1.7.2. Data Collection and Data Analysis 41
1.8. Potential Limitation and Expected Contribution 44
1.9. Outline Chapters 45
CHAPTER 2 – UNDERSTANDING THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION: AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH 47
2.2. A Way to Understand Indo-Pacific 47
2.3. Significance and reality of the Indo-Pacific region: from Geography to Geopolitics? 61
2.4. Perspectives, Vision, and Diplomacy of Global Powers 64
2.5. Challenges to the Indo-Pacific 79
CHAPTER 3 - THE MAIN IDEA OF INDONESIA'S GEOPOLITICAL CONSTRUCTION 82
3.1. Basic Concept of Geopolitics 82
3.2. Geostrategy in a Nutshell 88
3.3. Indonesia's Geopolitics and Geostrategy 90
3.3.1. Wawasan Nusantara as Indonesia's Geopolitical Understanding 91
3.3.2. Development of the Indonesian Territory 94
3.3.3. The Benefits 101
3.3.4. Basic Concepts of Indonesian Geostrategy/National Resilience 103
3.3.4. Additional Info: Capital City Relocation as Realization of Indo-Pacific Ambitions 105
CHAPTER 4 – INDONESIA'S STRATEGIC APPROACH TO THE INDO-PACIFIC 106
4.1. Introduction 106
4.2. Indonesian Perspective 107
4.3. Indonesian Strategic Approach 114
4.3.1. Building a cooperation-based Indo-pacific concept from IPT to AOIP/ Advocating the Indo-Pacific idea 114
4.3.2. ASEAN Centrality 125
4.3.3. Maritime Diplomacy through Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) 127
4.3.4. Independent and Active Foreign Policy Principle 130
CHAPTER 5 - THE RATIONALE BEHIND INDONESIA'S STRATEGIC APPROACH IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: A POLITICAL LEGITIMACY-PROSPECT MODEL ANALYSIS 134
5.1. Introduction 134
5.2. Analyzing Indonesia's Foreign Policy Decision Making Process in the Indo-Pacific 134
5.2.1. Framing the Indo-Pacific Issues 134
5.2.2. Reference Points: How the Legitimacy Aspect Leads to the Domain of Actions 141
CHAPTER 6 - CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS 164
6.1. Introduction 164
6.2. Potential Conflict Escalation in the Indo-Pacific; A Wake-Up Call for Indonesia to Get Ready for All Possibilities 165
6.3. Challenges to the ASEAN Centrality 173
6.3.1. AUKUS and It's Impact to the Stability of ASEAN 173
6.3.2. ASEAN Incapability to Play a Central Role in the Current Regional Geopolitical Conditions 178
6.3.3. The Challenge to 2023 Indonesia's Chairmanship of ASEAN 180
6.4. Other Types of Challenges and Limitations 182
6.4.1. Be Careful with Inward-looking Approach 182
6.4.2. How Does Indonesia Realize The Indo-Pacific Concept? 183
6.4.3. The Challenge of Navigating Partnership with Middle Powers in the Region 184
CHAPTER 7 - CONCLUSION 185
7.1. Critiques to Indonesian Strategic Approach to the Indo-Pacific 185
7.2. Room for Improvement 191
REFERENCES 198
APPENDIX 230
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