本研究以地緣政治動盪與災害性供應鏈中斷為核心情境，整合代理人基礎模型（ABM）及動態規劃（DP），從品牌商視角系統性評估四種採購策略：單一採購（Strategy A）、雙重採購（Strategy B）、備援採購 I（Strategy C）與備援採購 II（Strategy D）在兩風險環境下的獲利能力與服務水準。模型設計上，本研究以採購策略選擇為核心，先由 ABM 模擬供應端節點在外部風險下的產能折減與恢復，再將產能折減序列作為 DP 模型的供應約束，並以庫存水準作為跨期狀態變數，連結各期訂購決策、供應缺口與服務水準表現。以 A公司之A系列平板產品供應鏈為實證場域，本研究模擬 16 個季度，針對地緣政治產能上限、自然災害頻率、備援成本、恢復速率與次要供應商成本進行系統性敏感度分析，並比較協作式與自主式兩種產能恢復情境。
研究結果顯示，地緣政治產能上限係數（T）是驅動策略排名轉換的關鍵變數。在低度產能限制（T≥0.5）下，Strategy A 於全部 30 次模擬中均勝出，Strategy C 之平均獲利差距不及 0.05%，可作為低成本保險型策略。當 T 降至 0.3 時，Strategy C 在協作式恢復情境下勝出次數超越 Strategy A，策略正式轉換。備援成本差距與恢復速率共同決定 Strategy C 與 D 之競爭邊界，Strategy B 僅在次要供應商成本溢價極低時方能勝出。
本研究揭示地緣政治風險之「衝擊強度」非「發生頻率」才是驅動策略轉換的機制，並提出以 T 為核心、整合恢復情境判斷的採購韌性決策框架，為跨國品牌商提供具情境解析度的實務參考。

This study integrates Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and Dynamic Programming (DP) to evaluate four procurement strategies: single sourcing (Strategy A), dual sourcing (Strategy B), backup sourcing I (Strategy C), and backup sourcing II (Strategy D) Under compounded geopolitical and disaster-related supply chain disruptions, using Company A's Product A supply chain as an empirical case across 16 quarters.

Results reveal that the geopolitical capacity ceiling coefficient (T) is the sole driver of procurement strategy rank reversals. Under low constraint environments (T ≥ 0.5), Strategy A dominates all 30 simulation runs, with Strategy C serving as a low-cost insurance alternative within 0.05% profit difference. When 𝒯 falls to 0.3, Strategy C surpasses Strategy A under collaborative recovery, confirming a definitive transition. Backup cost differentials and recovery rates jointly determine the competitive boundary between Strategies C and D, while Strategy B only prevails when secondary supplier cost premiums are minimal.

This study demonstrates that geopolitical risk intensity—not frequency—drives strategy transitions, and proposes a T-centered procurement resilience decision framework for multinational brand owners.

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