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研究生: 李宸昕
Lee, Chen Hsin
論文名稱: 探討美國上市公司MD&A揭露與財務表現一致性之決定因素
Explore the Determinants of the Consistency between US Listed Companies’ MD&A Disclosure and Financial Performance
指導教授: 周濟群
Chou, Chi Chun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accounting
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 52
中文關鍵詞: MD&AK-Means文字探勘
外文關鍵詞: MD&A, K-Means, text mining
相關次數: 點閱:63下載:5
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  • 本研究透過文字探勘對美國企業2004年至2014年的MD&A資訊進行分析,並搭配財務資訊相互比較,分析美國企業所揭露的MD&A語調一致性,接著透過實證研究分析造成美國企業MD&A語調一致性結果的原因。MD&A非量化資訊運用Loughran and McDonald正負向詞典、TFIDF、K-Means等技術進行分析,並結合財務資訊分析,分析美國企業2004年至2014年的MD&A資訊;再利用企業績效變異度、企業規模與企業成立年數等變數,來分析影響公司MD&A揭露誇大與否的因素。
    研究結果顯示,企業規模、企業風險程度、分析師追蹤人數與企業成立年
    數皆會深深影響MD&A語調的一致性。除了主要實證分析結果外,另外搭配三組穩健性測試來測試模型的敏感性。本研究希望讓資訊使用者運用企業所揭露的MD&A資訊時,能做更多適當的調整,考慮公司MD&A的揭露是否有過度樂觀誇大或是過度悲觀的情勢,並且可以藉此做出正確的經濟決策。


    This study presented a way to analyze the MD&A information of US listed companies from 2004 to 2014 via text mining techniques such as Loughran and McDonald Word Count and TFIDF. Then I cross compare a company’s MD&A information with its financial information using K-Means and establish an index to capture the consistency between the two types of information. Finally, I develop empirical model with explanatory variables such as volatility of earnings, company scale, company’s age, etc. for the consistency index.
    According to the empirical results, company scale, company operating risks, analyst coverage, and company’s age are significantly related to the MD&A consistency. Three robustness checks demonstrate the similar results. The results suggest investors an additional way of using MD&A other than merely reading it. Investors should consider whether the MD&A is overstated or understated while using it in their investment decisions.

    壹、 緒論 1
    一、 研究背景與動機 1
    二、 研究問題與目的 3
    三、 論文架構 4
    貳、 文獻探討及相關工具介紹 6
    一、 探討量化及非量化資訊之相關文獻 6
    二、 年報使用者運用MD&A資訊之相關文獻 8
    三、 MD&A資訊之相關文獻 10
    四、 群集分析工具K-Means 12
    五、 文字探勘工具 14
    參、 研究方法 18
    一、 研究方法架構 18
    二、 研究樣本 20
    三、 MD&A資料處理 20
    四、 財務資料處理 22
    五、 MD&A資料與財務資料分群一致性分析 23
    六、 建立實證研究模型 24
    肆、 實作結果與分析 32
    一、 蒐集研究樣本 32
    二、 MD&A資料分析 32
    三、 財務資料分析 33
    四、 MD&A資料與財務資料分群一致性分析 34
    五、 實證結果分析 36
    伍、 結論與建議 47
    一、 研究結論 47
    二、 研究限制 49
    三、 研究建議 49
    陸、 參考文獻 50
    一、 文獻 50
    二、 其他資料 52

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