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研究生： 林靜美
Lin, Ching Mei
論文名稱： 台灣直轄市政府債務管理因素之研究-預算制度、融資工具與管理行為對債務管理成果的影響
How Is the Debt Managed in Taiwan Municipal Governments? The Influence of Budget Institution, Financing Instruments and Managerial Behavior on Debt Management Outcome
指導教授： 郭昱瑩
Kuo, Yu Ying
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 社會科學學院 - 公共行政學系
Department of Public Administration
論文出版年： 2013
畢業學年度： 101
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 198
中文關鍵詞： 債務管理 、地方政府 、直轄市公債 、債信 、債務負擔能力分析 、債務管理政策 、資本市場
外文關鍵詞： Debt Management, Local Government, Municipal Bonds, Creditworthiness, Debt Affordability Analysis, Debt Management Policy, Market-Based Capital Market
相關次數： 點閱：70  下載：22 
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    • 本文研究目的在於探討地方政府債務管理的影響因素，包含預算制度、融資工具的選擇與管理過程的考量。針對五個特別直轄市，以質化:二手資料分析與半結構式深度訪談，再輔以量化: 官方統計資料等資料蒐集方式，論證五直轄市的債務管理問題與解決之道。全文以三個小研究構成:
    研究一: 針對法治面、融資工具與制度面及債信與財務管理面評估總體的市場機制建立是否完善。基於研究一發現兩問題:台灣面臨法治面，融資舉債過度集權化與市場開放自由化之間，供給與需求規範的不對稱；以及缺少以市場為標準的信評資訊。據此，研究二: 探討影響五直轄市財務管理科行政人員管理決策因素；研究三: 量化財務資訊分析五特別直轄市的債務負擔能力債務成果對債信的影響。
    本文結論: 雖然融資工具與制度經過中央政府推動多年後已達市場健全；但是，地方政府傾向以政府的招牌輕易的向銀行融資，其實際舉債成本是納稅人無法監督的。為增加債務管理透明度，地方政府應以健全的資本市場為融資管道。其好處為 (1) 增加債務透明度: 有效提供願意借錢的債權人(需求者)與納稅人真實的債務資訊；(2) 以市場標準客觀正確的評估舉債成本: (3)強調債信: 可讓債務發行者(供給者)可以在市場中找到最便宜的借錢方式。債務融資市場化，可強化五直轄市政府的債務管理績效。據此，建議五特別直轄市應儘速訂定債務管理政策，出版債務負擔能力分析以加強自身債信。

    This research aims to assess the influence of debt management factors regarding budgetary institution, choosing of financing instruments, and managerial behavior on the debt management outcome. Three studies are conducted to claim the adequacy of adopting a market-based for debt financing in special municipalities. Study 1 accesses the development of municipal bonds market with three critical dimensions: (i) legal and policy environment, (ii) financial instruments and institutions, and (iii) borrower creditworthiness and financial management. Based on the results of study 1, two further inquiries are emerged, the asymmetric development in the dimension of the legal and policy environment as well as the dimension of borrower creditworthiness and financial management. In order to address these two inquiries, study 2 applies in-depth interview to investigate how budgetary institution in terms of the legal and policy environment influences managerial decisions on debt management; study 3 adopts debt affordability model to evaluate the borrower creditworthiness and financial management outcome. The research concludes as follows: first of all, the capital market is ready for the central government to delegate the authority of bond issuance to local governments. However, in five municipalities, the lack of transparency strengthens strong ties between banks and special municipalities. This has formed obstacles to adopt capital market as low cost and transparent financing mechanism. Second, although data for debt affordability ratios are available, without a market-based financing mechanism and well-established debt management policies, the new formed municipalities lack the motivation construct creditworthiness that complies with the standard of market-based capital market. This further impedes the debt capacity and lower borrowing cost. As a result, more invisible debts are accumulating without symmetric information for taxpayers to oversight. This dissertation claims that five municipalities are urgent to establish debt management policies and applying stock market and a well-organized securities market to issue debt. Through market-based capital financing, financial information disclosure and debt affordability analysis will be strengthened. Furthermore, market-based financing facilitates competition on debt management outcome regarding self-financing and debt capacity in special municipalities. This redirects their efforts from political debates on getting more centrally-allocated fund to solid managerial improvement on debt capacity.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    LIST OF TABLES VII
    LIST OF FIGURES X
    ABBREVIATIONS XII
    CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
    I. Research Rationale 1
    II. Research Objectives and Questions 2
    III. Organization of this Dissertation 3
    CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW: CAPITAL MARKET, BUDGETARY INSTITUTION AND DEBT MANAGEMENT 4
    I. Theory and Practice of a Capital Financing and Budgeting of the U.S. Government 4
    1.1 The U.S. Bond Market’s history, Institutions, Participants and Practices 4
    1.2 The Players and Their Roles 6
    II. The Motivation, Decisions and Practice of an Issuer in the Municipal Bond Market 7
    III. Literature on Debt Financing Factors That Influence Issuance Costs 9
    3.1 Structuring, Sizing and Issuance Cost 9
    3.2 Interest Rate Calculation Index and Cost 11
    3.3 Sale Methods and Debt Structuring 12
    3.4 Issuance Cost and Credit Enhancement 13
    3.5 Debt Affordability, Debt Policy, Capital Improvement Programs and Debt Management 14
    A. Debt Policies 16
    B. Effect of Debt Policies 17
    C. Elements of Debt Policy in State and Local Governments 17
    3.6 Three Studies 18
    CHAPTER 3 STUDY 1: MARKET-BASED CAPITAL MARKET AND READINESS TO ISSUE MUNICIPAL BONDS IN TAIWAN 20
    I. Introduction 20
    II. Literature Review 21
    2.1 Political-Economy and Changed Government Structure in Taiwan 21
    Regulated Capital Market and Economic Development in Taiwan 22
    2.2 From a Highly Regulated Market to a Liberalized One 23
    2.3 Adjusted Government Structure and Liberalized Capital Market 26
    A. Government Structure 26
    B. Central Government Bonds 26
    C. Bonds Issuance in Local Governments 27
    D. Emergent Issues 28
    2.4 Assessing Municipal Bond Market Development 29
    2.5 Evaluation Criteria of Each Dimension 30
    2.6 Summary 32
    III. Methodology 33
    3.1 Measurements and Analysis 33
    3.2 Data Collection Methods 35
    3.3 Limitations 36
    IV. Findings and Discussion of Study 1 36
    4.1 Legal and Policy Environment 36
    A. Supply Side in Legal and Policy Environment in the 1990s 36
    1. Public Debt Act and Debt Limitation 37
    2. Central Government Bonds and Loans Act 37
    3. Tax, Centrally-Funded Tax Revenues and Expenditures 38
    4. Bonds Issuance Procedure and Monitory 39
    B. Demand Side in Legal and Policy Environment 39
    1. Outstanding Debt and Scale of Market 39
    2. Organization Structure in the Capital Market 40
    2. Diversity of the Primary Market 43
    3. Depth of Bonds Market 44
    4. Underwriter and Bonds Issuances Process 45
    5. The Combinations of Instruments 46
    4.2 Financial Instruments and Institutions 46
    A. Supply Side in Financial Instruments and Institutions 47
    1. Financial Instruments and Institutions in the Market 47
    2. Relaxing the Regulations for Diversity of Investors and Instruments 48
    B. Demand Side in Financial Instruments and Institutions 49
    4.3 Borrow Creditworthiness and Financial Management 50
    A. Supply Side of the Borrow Creditworthiness and Financial Management 50
    1. Accounting Systems that Support Local Liability Management 50
    2. Criteria for Budgetary Grants and Subsidized Market Loans 51
    B. Demand Side of Borrower Creditworthiness and Financial Management 51
    1. Strong Credit Quality in Taiwan, and Information Regarding Risk 51
    2. Tax-Support Debt 52
    3. Separate Corporate Issuers 52
    V. Conclusions and Implications 53
    5.1 Research Findings 54
    5.2 Research Contribution to the Literature 54
    5.3 Implications of the Research Findings 55
    5.4 Research Recommendation for Advanced Research 55
    CHAPTER 4 STUDY 2: THE IMPACTS OF BUDGETARY INSTITUTION AND FINANCIAL BEHAVIORS ON DEBT MANAGEMENT OUTCOME 56
    I. Introduction 56
    Research Questions 57
    II. Literature Review 57
    2.1 Asymmetric Information Theory and Application 58
    A. Moral hazard with Hidden Actions 59
    B. Moral Hazard with Hidden Information 59
    C. Adverse Selection 59
    D. Signal Model 59
    2.2 Budgetary Institutions and Their Impacts on Fiscal Outcome 60
    2.3 Conceptual Framework and Research Questions 60
    III. Methodology 61
    3.1 Qualitative Data Collection with In-Depth Interview 61
    3.2 Interview Sampling 62
    3.3 Semi-Structured Questionnaire 62
    3.4 Secondary Data 63
    3.5 Qualitative Data Analysis 63
    A. Horizontal and Thematic Analysis 63
    1. Description of Organizations 63
    2. Description of Concept 63
    3. Planning and Adopting a Debt Financing Strategy 63
    4. Internal and External Factors Affecting Debt Management 64
    5. Changing and Adapting Debt Management 64
    B. Steps Horizontal Analysis of NVIVO 64
    1. Opening a Project 64
    2. Highlighting Coded Sections 64
    3. Creating Annotations 64
    IV. Findings and Discussion of Study 2 65
    4.1 Factors Affecting the Debt Management of Organizations 65
    A. External Factors 66
    1. Political Climate, Conflict and Interdependence 68
    2. Limitations Imposed by Organizational Debt Limits 70
    3. Compromising and Managing Differences within a Coalition 71
    4. Inaccurate Public Perceptions 73
    B. Internal Factors 74
    1. Capacity 74
    2. Leadership 76
    3. Administration Costs 77
    4.2 The Players and Their Roles in Municipal Debt Issuance Process 77
    A. No Financial Advisor in Five Municipalities 78
    B. Short-Term or Long-Term Financing 81
    1. Short-Term and Long-Term Debt 82
    2. Bond Issuance 83
    3. Others 84
    C. Negotiated or Competitive 84
    D. Structuring and Sizing 86
    E. Interest Rate 87
    F. Credit Worthiness 87
    G. Citizens/ Taxpayers 88
    V. Conclusion of Study 2 89
    5.1 Research Findings and Implications 89
    5.2 Policy Recommendations to Debt Policies of Five Special Municipalities 89
    5.3 Debt Management Practice (Rule of Thumb) and Policy in Taiwan 91
    5.4 The Limitations of the Study 2 93
    CHAPTER 5 STUDY 3: FISCAL AFFORDABILITY AND BORROWER CREDIT WORTHINESS IN FIVE MUNICIPALITIES 94
    I. Introduction 94
    II. Literature Review 95
    2.1 Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures 95
    A. 1999 AGAGRE 95
    B. 2012 AGAGRE Draft Bill 98
    C. Regulations for Allocation of Centrally-Funded Tax Revenues 100
    2.2 Debt Accumulation in Five Municipalities 100
    A. Taipei Special Municipality 101
    B. New Taipei Special Municipality 102
    C. Taichung Special Municipality 103
    D. Tainan Special Municipality 104
    E. Kaohsiung Special Municipality 105
    2.3 Public Debt Management and Creditworthiness 106
    III. Methodology 108
    3.1 Quantitative Data Collection 109
    3.2 Measurements 109
    3.3 Creditworthiness Analysis 110
    3.4 Conceptual Framework 111
    3.5 Limitations 111
    IV. Findings and Discussions 111
    4.1 Debt Affordability Analysis of Five Municipalities after the Reorganization 112
    A. Taipei Special Municipality 113
    B. New Taipei Special Municipality 114
    C. Taichung Special Municipality 114
    D. Tainan Special Municipality 115
    E. Kaohsiung Special Municipality 116
    4.2 Debt Affordability, Debt Management Performance and Creditworthiness 116
    A. Debt Management Performance and Creditworthiness 117
    1. Ratio 1-Growth in Outstanding Public Debt Ratio 117
    2. Ratio 2 and 3-Self-Supporting Debt and Net Tax-Supported Debt Service Ratio 117
    3. Ratio 4, 5, and 6-Long-Term Debt Capacity under a Cap Benchmark Ratio, Long-Term Debt Ratio, and Short-Term debt Ratio 118
    4. Ratio 7-Total Financing Revenue as a Percentage of General Expenditure 122
    5. Ratio 8 Debt Service as a Percentage of Total Debt Financing Revenue for General Expenditure 122
    6. Ratio 9 Self-Financing Ratio 124
    7. Ratio 10, 11, and 12 Outstanding Debt Per Capita, Total Outstanding Debt to Personal Income, and Total Outstanding Debt to Household Income 125
    B. Economics Ratios 126
    4.3 Overall Evaluation of Creditworthiness in Five Special Municipalities 127
    Summary 127
    CHAPTER 6 EPILOGUE: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 128
    I. Summary 128
    II. Research Findings and Policy Implications 129
    III. Contribution to the Literature 130
    IV. Research Advices for Advanced Research 131
    V. Conclusion 131
    BIBLIOGRAPHY 133
    Chinese References 137
    APPENDICES 140
    Appendix A 141
    Function of a Financial Advisor 141
    Appendix B 142
    Creditworthiness Indicators 142
    Appendix C 143
    Elements of Debt Policies 143
    Appendix D 144
    Semi-Structure Interview Questions 144
    Appendix E 145
    Interview Questions in Chinese 145
    Appendix F 146
    Interview Case 1 146
    Appendix G 156
    Interview Case 2 156
    Appendix H 173
    Interview Case 3 173
    Appendix I 177
    Interview Case 4 177
    Appendix J 189
    Interview Case 5 189

    LIST OF TABLES
    TABLE 2-1 MUNICIPAL BOND DEFAULTS, 1940-1994 5
    TABLE 2-2 DEFAULT RATE 1987-2003 5
    TABLE 2-3 BOND ISSUERS-STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS’ MOTIVATIONS AND LIMITATIONS 8
    TABLE 2-4 $100 BOND ISSUANCE AND FIXED-RATE DEBT SERVICE STRUCTURE 10
    TABLE 2-5 FISCAL AFFORDABILITY STATISTICS FOR CREDIT WORTHINESS 16
    TABLE 3-1 PERCENTAGE OF SMALL/MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN TAIWAN 24
    TABLE 3-2 THE ALIGNMENT OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN ANALYZING CAPITAL MARKET 35
    TABLE 3-3 DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE OUTSTANDING DEBT 40
    TABLE 3-4 DIVERSE ISSUERS AND SECURITIES IN TAIWAN CAPITAL MARKET 44
    TABLE 3-5 NUMBER OF BANK AND FINANCING INSTITUTIONS 48
    TABLE 3-6 NUMBER OF SECURITIES SERVICES PROVIDERS 49
    TABLE 3-7 RESEARCH CONCLUSIONS: READINESS FOR BOND ISSUANCE 53
    TABLE 4-1 INTERVIEW CASES 62
    TABLE 4-2 EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEBT MANAGEMENT WORK OF THE MUNICIPAL ORGANIZATIONS 66
    TABLE 4-3 DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICIES AND RULE OF THUMB IN THE FIVE MUNICIPALITIES 92
    TABLE 5-1 ACT GOVERNING THE ALLOCATION OF GOVERNMENT REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES AT PRESENT 97
    TABLE 5-2 THE CHANGED DISTRIBUTION OF CENTRALLY-ALLOCATED TAX REVENUES 98
    TABLE 5-3 NATIONAL TAXES THAT IS ALLOCATED TO LOCAL AS RACFTR 99
    TABLE 5-4 DRAFT BILL 2012 AND ITS REGULATIONS FOR ALLOCATION OF CENTRALLY-FUNDED TAX REVENUES 100
    TABLE 5-5 OUTSTANDING DEBT IN TAIPEI CITY, 2002 THROUGH 2011 101
    TABLE 5-6 OUTSTANDING DEBT IN NEW TAIPEI CITY, 2002 THROUGH 2011 102
    TABLE 5-7 OUTSTANDING DEBT IN TAICHUNG CITY, 2002 THROUGH 2011 103
    TABLE 5-8 OUTSTANDING DEBT IN TAINAN CITY, 2002 THROUGH 2011 104
    TABLE 5-9 OUTSTANDING DEBT IN KAOHSIUNG CITY, 2002 THROUGH 2011 105
    TABLE 5-10 DEBT AFFORDABILITY RATIOS: DEFINITIONS AND FORMULAS 109
    TABLE 5-11 DEBT AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS, 2010 VS. 2011 112
    TABLE 5-12 GROWTH IN OUTSTANDING PUBLIC DEBT RATIO (%) 117
    TABLE 5-13 SELF-SUPPORTING DEBT RATIO, 2010 VS. 2011 118
    TABLE 5-14 DEBT CAPACITY, 2010 VS. 2011 122
    TABLE 5-15 TOTAL FINANCING REVENUE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GENERAL EXPENDITURE 122
    TABLE 5-16 DEBT SERVICE AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DEBT FINANCING REVENUE FOR GENERAL EXPENDITURE 124
    TABLE 5-17 TABLE DEBT AFFORDABILITY RATIO, 2010 VS. 2011 125
    TABLE 5-18 OUTSTANDING DEBT PER CAPITA, TO PERSONAL INCOME, AND TO HOUSEHOLD INCOME 126

    LIST OF FIGURES
    FIGURE 2-1 PARTICIPANTS IN THE MUNICIPAL BONDS ISSUANCE PROCESS 6
    FIGURE 2-2 EQUAL PRINCIPAL AND LEVEL DEBT SERVICE 10
    FIGURE 2-3 THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM, DEBT POLICY, AND AFFORDABILITY 15
    FIGURE 3-1 PERCENTAGE OF GDP IN AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY, AND SERVICE INDUSTRY 22
    FIGURE 3-2 FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING MUNICIPAL BONDS MARKET DEVELOPMENT 29
    FIGURE 3-3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 33
    FIGURE 3-4 STRUCTURE OF SECURITY MARKET 41
    FIGURE 3-5 STRUCTURE OF BONDS MARKET 42
    FIGURE 3-6 ACTORS IN DEVELOPING BOND MARKET 42
    FIGURE 4-1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 61
    FIGURE 4-2 PARTICIPANTS IN THE MUNICIPAL DEBT ISSUANCE PROCESS IN TAIWAN 78
    FIGURE 5-1 TREND OF DEBT ACCUMULATION IN TAIPEI 102
    FIGURE 5-2 TREND OF DEBT ACCUMULATION IN NEW TAIPEI 103
    FIGURE 5-3 TREND OF DEBT ACCUMULATION IN TAICHUNG CITY 104
    FIGURE 5-4 TREND OF DEBT ACCUMULATION IN TAINAN CITY 105
    FIGURE 5-5 TREND OF DEBT ACCUMULATION IN TAINAN CITY 106
    FIGURE 5-6 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 111
    FIGURE 5-7 SELF-SUPPORTING DEBT RATIO IN FIVE SPECIAL MUNICIPALITIES, 2002 THROUGH 2011 118
    FIGURE 5-8 DEBT CAPACITY UNDER A CAP BENCHMARK RATIO IN TAIPEI MUNICIPALITY 119
    FIGURE 5-9 DEBT CAPACITY UNDER A CAP BENCHMARK RATIO IN NEW TAIPEI MUNICIPALITY 119
    FIGURE 5-10 DEBT CAPACITY UNDER A CAP BENCHMARK RATIO IN TAICHUNG MUNICIPALITY 120
    FIGURE 5-11 DEBT CAPACITY UNDER A CAP BENCHMARK RATIO IN TAINAN MUNICIPALITY 120
    FIGURE 5-12 DEBT CAPACITY UNDER A CAP BENCHMARK RATIO IN KAOHSIUNG MUNICIPALITY 121
    FIGURE 5-13 DEBT SERVICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF OPERATING EXPENDITURES 123
    FIGURE 5-14 DEBT SERVICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DEBT FINANCING REVENUE FOR GENERAL EXPENDITURE, 2002 THROUGH 2011 123
    FIGURE 5-15 SELF-FINANCING RATIO 125

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