| 研究生: |
王敬惟 Wang, Ching Wei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
通貨膨脹率指標與內生成長:小型開放經濟的分析 Inflation Targeting and Endogenous Growth: An Analysis of Small Open Economy |
| 指導教授: |
賴景昌
Lai, Ching Chong |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2015 |
| 畢業學年度: | 103 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 50 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 通貨膨脹率指標 、內生成長 、均衡不確定性 、勞動外生 、勞動內生 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Inflation Targeting, Endogenous Growth, Indeterminacy, Inelastic Labor Supply, Elastic Labor Supply |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:104 下載:24 |
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本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型,並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方式,將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此,我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下,央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策,民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動,並探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相關變數的成長率。
根據本文的分析,我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下,通貨膨脹率與Tobin q值呈現負向關係,由此我們可以推論,提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時,經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性,表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時,名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不同比例的變動,且變動方向不確定,需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分,宣告期間的長短僅影響經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度,不影響動態調整路徑的形狀。
在勞動內生化的狀況下,通貨膨脹率增減不影響Tobin q值的變動,故提高通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策,勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時,經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性,表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動在央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時,名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例變動。最後,政策宣示部分,政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。
第一章 緒論 · · ·· · · · · · · · · · · · 1
第一節 研究動機與文獻回顧 · · · · · · ·· 1
第二節 本文架構 · · · · · · · · · · · · 4
第二章 理論模型 · · · · · · · · · · · · · 5
第一節 代表性個人決策 · · · · · · · · · 5
第二節 政府與中央銀行 · · · · · · · · · 7
第三節 總體經濟模型 · · · · · · · · · · 8
第三章 勞動外生 · · · · · · · · · · · · 10
第一節 均衡成長與通貨膨脹率指標 · · ·· 10
第二節 動態傳遞與預料到的貨幣政策 · · 14
第四章 勞動內生 · · · · · · · · · · · 23
第一節 均衡成長與通貨膨脹率指標 · ·· 23
第二節 動態傳遞與預料到的貨幣政策 · · 31
第五章 結論 · · · · · · · · · · · · · 46
附錄 A · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 47
參考文獻 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 48
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