民國八十八年六月二十二日立法院三讀通過營業稅法第十一條修正條文，將銀行、保險等七大行業的營業稅率由5％降為2％，此次營業稅調降對於政府營業稅稅收影響重大（政府每年的稅收損失約420億元，占當年營業稅收16.9％），並引發後續之稅率調降風波（三大工商團體要求金融業之營業稅稅率降至為零）。本研究的主旨是探討該降稅事件對於金融業營收管理之影響，首先以T統計量檢定八十八年度第二季之營業收入是否存在非預期之波動，其次，以迴歸分析解釋該季之非預期波動的可能原因。實證結果顯示；

1.民國八十八年第二季營業收入的實際變動顯著低於預期應有之正常波動，而上述營業收入的非預期波動於民國八十八年第三季及第四季並不會重複發生，支持本文之推論，即因營業稅率調降之營收管理現象僅存在於八十八年度第二季。

2.民國八十八年第二季營業收入的非預期波動與自有資金比例有負向關係，而與買賣票券利益（淨額）有正向關係。此外，公營銀行民國八十八年第二季營業收入的非預期波動大於非公營銀行。

過去一般研究企業之盈餘管理，較著墨於盈餘與股價之實證關係，而對於金融業之研究範疇也多侷限於資本適足率等議題，本文藉由此次營業稅稅率之調降，針對該稅率調降前之八十八年度第二季進行實證研究，金融業者是否利用稅率變動期間進行營業收入之管理，及其解釋因素之探討，研究結果有下列參考之價值（1）提供財政部賦稅署估計稅率變動所產生之潛在稅收損失，（2）提供投資人與債權人關於金融業季報表之可靠性評估，（3）提供稅率改變之租稅動機對於盈餘管理相關議題的實證研究。

June, twenty-second, 1999, the legislative Yuan passed the law reform of Operating Tax, and lowered the operating tax rate of banks, insurance, and other financial organizations from 5 percent to 2 percent which had great influence on the government’s revenue of operating tax and gave rise to the following incident of tax rate lowering.

This study’s main object is to investigate whether operating revenues of financial organizations are managed in response to the change in the operating tax rate. First, testing if there exists any unexpected fluctuation in the second quarter’s operating revenue by T-test. Second, using regression model to explain the possible causes of that quarter’s unexpected fluctuation.

The result of empirical tests show that：

1. The actual fluctuation of 1999 second quarter’s operating revenue is obviously lower then the expected normal fluctuation while the mentioned unexpected fluctuation is not repeated in the 1999 third and fourth quarter, which provides evidence of the phenomenon of deferring operating revenues in response to a large decrease in the operating tax rate only exists in the second quarter of 1999.

2. The unexpected fluctuation of the second quarter’s operating revenue is negatively related with the percentage of self-held capital and positively related with the net gain of securities transactions. Besides, government-held banks’ unexpected fluctuation of the 1999 second quarter’s operating revenue is greater than that of private banks.This study takes interest in the change in the operating tax and investigates whether the tax rate change provides the financiers a substantial incentive to defer their quarterly operating revenue. It also tries to identify situations in which incentives to manage operating revenue exist.

The result of this possesses the following contributions：（1）it provides government to measure the potential loss of operating tax revenue when estimating the impact of tax rate changes, and（2）it also provides the investors and creditors to measure the reliability of the quarterly financial statements. Finally,（3）it provides the tax motivation of empirical study to enlarge the related subjects of earning management.

一、中文部分
1. 洪淑琴，民國八十五年六月，臺灣銀行業資本與盈餘關聯性之研究，國立政治大學會計學系碩士班碩士論文。
2. 陳育成，民國八十六年四月，商業銀行資本適足率資訊內涵與資本調控問題之研究，國立政治大學會計學系博士班博士論文。
3. 陳家齊，民國八十六年六月，我國新上市公司實質盈餘管理之研究，國立政治大學會計學系碩士班碩士論文。
4. 葉東煇，民國八十五年六月，股票類別變更與盈餘管理關係之研究，國立政治大學會計學系碩士班碩士論文。
5. 曾國禓，民國八十四年六月，上市後業績衰退與盈餘管理關係之研究，國立政治大學會計學系碩士班碩士論文。
6. 蔡郁仁，民國八十七年六月，盈餘管理季節性之研究，國立政治大學會計學系碩士班碩士論文。
7. 劉啟群，民國八十八年七月，我國金融業會計損益項目季別分析：盈餘管理間接測試法，會計評論31期：63-79。
8. 鄭丁旺、康榮寶、李建然、金成隆、劉正田，民國八十一年十月，上市承銷價與盈餘管理，第四屆會計理論與實務研討會。
9. 財政部，民國八十七年十二月，賦稅革新總報告書，第三編銷售稅革新方案：63-72。
10. 中文報紙：中時電子報http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/vup 新聞檢索
（1） 工商時報，「短視粗糙的決策 」，社論，88/2/21。
（2） 工商時報，焦點新聞，【記者何曼卿 台北報導】，88/6/5。
（3） 工商時報，「金融業營業稅減徵 範圍將擴大」，焦點新聞，88/8/4。
（4） 工商時報，「請李總統務必力挺財政部一次」，論壇，88/10/23。
（5） 工商時報，「9月本國銀行逾放比率金額雙見新高點」，財經產業，88/10/31。
（6） 工商時報，「財部同意：銀行逾六月催收款 四年內打銷」，焦點新聞，88/12/26。
（7） 工商時報，「痛下決心整頓壞帳銀行業才能重生」，論壇，88/12/27。
（8） 中時晚報，「銀行逾放比 台開２０％排第一」，焦點新聞－立委公布排行榜，88/5/18。
（9） 中時晚報，「金融營業稅調降至2% 下周闖關」，焦點新聞，88/6/17。
（10）中國時報，「短期激勵措施尚不足以徹底扭轉危機」，社論，88/2/20。
（11）中國時報，「銀行營業稅稅率降為２％」，焦點新聞，88/2/20 。
（12）中國時報，「金融營業稅調降 可望快速通關」，財經，88/6/18。
（13）中國時報，「金融營業稅降為2％ 立院三讀通過」，財經，88/6/23。
（14）中國時報，「金融業營業稅率不調降 四年後再檢討 」，焦點新聞，88/10/17。
（15）中國時報，「王得山：稅收失血千億 已無降稅空間 」，政治新聞，88/10/22。
（16）中國時報，「降稅收益未用於打銷呆帳 須繳庫」，財經產業，88/10/31。
二、 英文部分
1. Aharony, J., C. J. Lin, and M. P. Loeb. 1993. Initial public offerings, accounting choices, and earnings management. Contemporary Accounting Research, Fall：61-81.
2. Barth, M. E., W. H. Beaver, and M. A. Wolfson. 1990.Components of earnings and the structure of bank share prices. Financial Analysts Journal, （May-June）：53-60.
3. Beatty, A., S. L. Chamberlain, and J. Magliolo. 1995. Managing financial reports of commercial banks：The influence of taxes, regulatory capital, and earnings. Journal of Accounting Research, Vol.33 No. 2,（Autumn）：231-261.
4. Beidleman, C. R. 1973. Income smoothing：The role of management. The Accounting Review48, October：653-667.
5. Copeland, R. M. 1986. Income smoothing empirical research in accounting：Selected studies, Supplement to Vol6, Journal of Accounting Research.
6. Friedlan, J. M. 1994 Accounting choices of issuers of initial public offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research, Summer：1-31.
7. Guenther, D.A.1994.Earnings management in response to corporate tax rate change: Evidence from the 1986 Tax Reform Act. The Accounting Review 69（January）:230-243 .
8. Healy, P. M. 1985. The effect of bonus schemes on accounting decisions. Journal of Accounting and economics, April：85-107.
9. Jone, J. J. 1991. Earnings management during import relief investigations. Journal of accounting research, Autumn：193-228.
10. Lopez, T. J., P. R. Regier, T.Lee.1998.Identifying Tax-Induced Earnings Management Around TRA 86 as a Function of Prior Tax-Aggressive Behavior.JATA20（Fall）：37-56.
11. Maydew, E.1997.Tax induced earnings management by firms with net operating losses. Journal of Accounting Research 35（Spring）: 83-95.
12. Moyer, S. E. 1990. Capital adequacy ratio regulations and accounting choices in commercial banks. Journal of Accounting and Economics.（13）：123-154.
13. Ronen, J. and S. Sadan. 1981. Smoothing numbers：Objectives, means, and implications, Addison-Wesley Publishing Inc.
14. Sandra, A. B., L. Chamberlain, and J. Magliolo. 1995. Managing financial reports of commercial banks：The influence of taxes, regulatory capital, and earnings. Journal of Accounting Research. （Autumn）：231-261.
15. Shipper, K., 1989. Commentary on Earnings Management. Accounting Horizons 3 （December）：91-102.
16. Scholes, M. S., G. P. Wilson, and M. A. Wolfson. 1990. Tax planning, regulatory capital planning, and financial reporting strategy for commercial banks. The Review of Financial Studies Vol.3, No.4：635-650.
17. Scholes, M. S., G. P. Wilson, and M. A. Wolfson.1992.Firms’responses to anticipated reductions in tax rates: The Tax Reform Act of 1986. Journal of Accounting Research 30（Supplement）: 161-185.
18. Watts, R. L., and J. L. Zimmerman. 1978. Towards a positive theory of the determination of accounting standards. The Accounting Review, January：52-77.
19. Watts, R. L., and J. L. Zimmerman. 1990. Positive accounting theory：A ten year perspective. The Accounting Review, January： 131-156.
20. Zmijewski, M., and R. Hagerman.1981. An income strategy approach to the positive theory of accounting standard setting/choice. Journal of Accounting and Economics Vol.3 （August）：129-149.