跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 彭竣永
論文名稱: 通貨膨脹持續性:分量單根檢定之應用
Inflation persistence:the application of quantile unit root test
指導教授: 林馨怡
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 66
中文關鍵詞: 通貨膨脹持續性分量自我回歸分量單根檢定
相關次數: 點閱:391下載:30
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 通貨膨脹持續性在總體經濟學中是一個相當重要的議題,特別是針對貨幣政策的研究。本文使用 Koenker and Xiao (2004, 2006) 的分量單根檢定以及分量自我迴歸模型,分析35個國家1958--2010年的通貨膨脹持續性。實證結果發現在這35個國家的通貨膨脹持續性估計值會隨著分量不同而不同,同時通貨膨脹持續性與通貨膨脹具有正向關係,這顯示通貨膨脹持續性具有不對稱性質。所有國家分量單根檢定的結果顯示通貨膨脹率在不同分量下具有定態與非定態性質。本文也將部分國家依地區與政策制度等特性區分成不同時期並進行討論,實證結果可以發現大部分國家的通貨膨脹持續性在現今已有下降的趨勢。


    1 前言...................................1
    2 文獻回顧...............................3
    3 理論模型...............................10
    3.1 分量自我迴歸.........................10
    3.1.1 模型設定與估計.....................10
    3.1.2 大樣本性質.........................11
    3.1.3 假設檢定...........................15
    3.2 分量單根檢定.........................16
    4 實證結果...............................25
    4.1 資料.................................25
    4.2 分量自我回歸.........................27
    4.3 分量單根檢定.........................30
    4.4 全部分配之分量單根檢定...............34
    4.5 Benati(2008)分類.....................35
    4.6 東南亞...............................39
    4.7 拉丁美洲.............................45
    4.8 穩健性檢驗...........................50
    5 結論...................................61
    參考文獻.................................62

    Aksoy, Y., A. Orphanides, D. Small, V. Wieland and D. Wilcox (2006),
    A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic a Approach to Disinflation,
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 1877-1893.

    Baillie, R.T., C.F. Chung, and M.A. Tieslau(1996),
    Analyzing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model,
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 23-40.

    Bassett, G. and R. Koenker (1982),
    An Empirical Quantile Function for Linear Models with iid Errors ,
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 407-415.

    Benati, L. (2008),
    Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes,
    Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123, 1005-1060.

    Berg, A., E. Borensztein, and P. Mauro (2002),
    An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America,
    North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 13, 213-235.

    Canova, F. (2005),
    The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America,
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 229-251.

    Capistran, C. and M. Ramos-Francia (2009),
    Inflation Dynamics in Latin America,
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 27, 349-362.

    Cogley, T. and T.J. Sargent (2001),
    Evolving Post-world war II US Inflation Dynamics,
    NBER macroeconomics annual 2001, 16, 331-373.

    Cogley, T. and T.J. Sargent (2005),
    Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US,
    Review of Economic dynamics, 8, 262-302.

    Cogley, T., G.E. Primiceri, and T.J. Sargent (2007),
    Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S.,
    NBER Working Paper 13749.

    Cogley, T. and A. M. Sbordone (2008),
    Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,
    The American Economic Review, 98, 2101-2126.

    Coleman, S. (2010),
    Inflation Persistence in the Franc Zone: Evidence from Disaggregated Prices,
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 32, 426-442.

    Cook, S. (2009),
    A Re-examination of the Stationarity of Inflation,
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 1047-1053.

    Crowder, W.J. and M.E. Wohar (1999),
    Are Tax Effects Important in the Long-run Fisher Relationship? Evidence from the municipal bond market,
    Journal of Finance, 54, 307-317.

    Cuestas J.C. and B. Harrison (2010),
    Inflation Persistence and Nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European Countries ,
    Economics Letters, 106, 81-83.

    Culver, S. E. and D. H. Papell (1997),
    Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from sequential break and panel data models ,
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 12, 435-444.

    Evans, M.D.D. and K.K. Lewis (1995),
    Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-run Fisher Relation?,
    Journal of Finance, 50, 225-253.

    Fuhrer, J.and G. Moore (1995),
    Inflation Persistence,
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 127-159.

    Gadea, M.D. and L. Mayoral (2006),
    The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach,
    International Journal of Central Banking, , 51-104.

    Gali, J. and M.Gertler (1999),
    Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis,
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 44,195-222.

    Galvao, A.F. Jr., G.Montes-Rojas, and S.Y. Park (2009),
    Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns,
    City University Economics Discussion Papers, No 09/04.

    Garcia, R. and P. Perron (1996),
    An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts ,
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78, 111-125.

    Gerlach, S. and P. Tillmann (2010),
    Inflation Targeting and Inflation Persistence in Asia ,
    CEPR Discussion Paper, No. DP8046.

    Gregoriou, A. and A. Kontonikas (2009),
    Modeling the Behaviour of Inflation Deviations from the Target,
    Economic Modelling, 26, 90-95.

    Gunterbrunner, C. and J. Jure$\check{c$kov$\acute{a$(1992),
    Regression Rank Scores and Regression Quantiles,
    The Annals of Statistics, 20, 305-330.

    Hall, R. (1999),
    Comment on Rethinking the Role of the NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty,
    Monetary Policy Rules, NBER Conference Report

    Halunga, A. G., D. R. Osborn and M. Sensier (2009),
    Changes in the Order of Integration of US and UK Inflation,
    The Annals of Statistics, 20, 305-330.

    Henry,O.T. and K. Shields (2004),
    Is There a Unit Root in Inflation?,
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 26, 481-500.

    Herce, M. (1996),
    Asymptotic Theory of LAD Estimation in a Unit Root Process With Finite Variance Errors,
    Econometric Theory, 12, 129-153.

    Knight, K. (1989),
    Limit Theory for Autoregressive-Parameter Estimates in an Infinite-Variance Random Walk,
    Canadian Journal of Statistics, 17, 261-278.

    Koenker, R. and G. Bassett (1978),
    Regression Quantiles.,
    Econometrica , 46, 33-50.

    Koenker, R. and Z. Xiao (2004),
    Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference,
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99, 775-787.

    Koenker, R. and Z. Xiao (2006),
    Quantile Autoregression,
    Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, 980-990.

    Kumar, M.S. and T. Okimoto (2007),
    Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates,
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, 1457-1479.

    Lee, H. and J. Wu (2001),
    Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries ,
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 477-487.

    Levin, A. T. and J. M. Piger (2004),
    Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?,
    Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Working Paper 2002-023.

    Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1976),
    Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique,
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19-46.

    Machado, J.A.F. (1993),
    Robust Model Selection and M-estimation,
    Econometric Theory, 9, 478-493.

    Nelson, C.R. and G. W. Schwert(1977),
    Short-term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis that the Real Rate of Interest is Constant,
    The American Economic Review, 67, 478-486.

    Nelson, C.R. and C.R. Plosser (1982),
    Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconmic Time Series: Some evidence and implications,
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139-162.

    Nobay, B., I. Paya, and D.A. Peel (2010),
    Inflation Dynamics in the US: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion,
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42, 135-150.

    Noriega, A.E. and M Ramos-Francia (2009),
    The Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation,
    Economics Letters, 105, 168-172.

    O'Reilly, G. and K. Whelan (2005),
    Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?,
    Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 709-720.

    Portnoy, S. (1984),
    Tightness of the Sequence of Empiric cdf Processes Defined From Regression Fractiles,
    in Robust and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis, eds. J. Franke, W. Hardle, and D. Martin, New York: Springer-Verlag, 231-246.

    Phelps, E. S. (1978),
    Disinflation Without Recession: Adaptive Guideposts and Monetary Policy ,
    Review of World Economics, 114, 783-890.

    Pivetta, F. and R. Reis (2007),
    The Persistence of Inflation in the United States,
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31, 1326-1358.

    Rose, A.K. (1988),
    Is the Real Interest Rate Stable,
    Journal of Finance, 43, 1095-1112.

    Sargent, T. (1999),
    The Conquest of American Inflation,
    Princeton University Press.

    Siddiqui, M. (1960),
    Distribution of Quantiles Form a Bivariate Population,
    Journal of Research of the National Bureau of Standards, 64, 145-150.

    Stock, J.H. (2001),
    [Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics]: Comment,
    NBER macroeconomics annual 2001, 16, 379-387.

    Taylor, J. B. (1980),
    Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts,
    The Journal of Political Economy, 88, 1-23.

    Taylor, J.B. (1998),
    Monetary Policy Guidelines for Unemployment and Inflation Stability,
    Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy, Cambridge: MIT Press.

    Taylor, J.B. (2000),
    Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and the Pricing Power of Firms,
    European Economic Review, 44, 1389-1408.

    QR CODE
    :::