文獻顯示存貨對於銷售和盈餘具有預測能力（Bernard and Noel 1991）。本文進一步探討比較後進先出法和國際會計準則允許之存貨計價方法所揭露之存貨，對於銷售和盈餘之預測能力。2003年發布之國際會計準則第二號公報「存貨」，禁止公司採用後進先出法衡量存貨，本研究擬觀察後進先出法和非後進先出法存貨對公司銷售與盈餘的預測能力是否有所差異。
本研究選取採用後進先出法並且揭露後進先出存貨準備之公司做為樣本，計算出樣本公司在國際會計準則規定下應有之存貨水準，測試與比較後進先出法之存貨與依國際會計準則揭露之存貨，孰者對銷售與盈餘之預測更具攸關性。實證結果顯示，後進先出存貨與國際會計準則存貨代理變數之實證結果並不顯著，顯示存貨在銷售與盈餘之預測迴歸模型中為一雜訊，存貨對銷售和盈餘之預測並不具有增額資訊，也說明存貨生產平穩理論與避免缺貨理論無法解釋存貨對銷售和盈餘預測之關聯性，因此無法判斷採用何種存貨計價方法所揭露之存貨，對銷售與盈餘較具預測能力。

In economic literature, production smoothing model and stockout model address the predictability of inventory disclosure on sales and earnings. Based on these models, Bernard and Noel (1991) show that inventory disclosure predicts sales and earnings. This study further investigates and compares the predictability of the sales and earnings by inventory reported under last in, last out (LIFO) and that under International Accounting Standard 2 (IAS 2). Thus this study compares the predicting ability of inventory on sales and earnings under IFRS and non-IFRS.
This study selects the companies adopting LIFO and disclosing LIFO reserve, calculates the inventory reported under IFRS, and determines the inventory’s ability to predict future sales and earnings under different inventory valuation methods. The empirical results show that the coefficients for the unexpected inventories under LIFO and IFRS are both statistically insignificant, suggesting that the unexpected inventories are merely noises in the models, and that the effects of production smoothing model and stockout model are not prevailed. Thus, it is difficult to determine which inventory valuation method can generate the inventory that leads to better sales and earnings prediction.

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