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研究生: 馬凱文
Kevin Tycho Manuele
論文名稱: 績效導向發展補助對地方國家能力的影響:來自烏干達 USMID 計畫的實證證據
The Effect of Performance-Based Development Grants on Local State Capacity: Evidence from Uganda’s USMID Program
指導教授: 薛健吾
Chien-wu Alex Hsueh
口試委員: 林竣達
Jiun-Da Lin
李佳怡
Chia-yi Lee
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 國際事務學院 - 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
International Master's Program in International Studies(IMPIS)
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 90
中文關鍵詞: 發展補助國家能力世界銀行烏干達USMID成果導向計畫自有財源收入
外文關鍵詞: development grants, state capacity, World Bank, Uganda, USMID, Program-for-Results, own-source revenue
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  • 本論文探討績效導向發展補助對地方國家能力的影響。本文評估烏干達城市基礎設施發展支持計畫(Uganda Support to Municipal Infrastructure Development, USMID)。該計畫是世界銀行於2013年至2024年間推動、總額達5.6億美元的發展計畫,目的在於改善烏干達地方政府的城市基礎設施與制度績效。本文採用混合研究方法,比較22個接受USMID補助的城市地方政府與19個未接受USMID補助的城市地方政府。本文以自有財源收入能力以及全國性績效評估分數作為衡量地方國家能力的指標,並以四個城市地方政府的個案研究補充量化分析。本文主張,雖然USMID提升了地方政府遵守補助管理要求的能力,但沒有證據顯示這些能力轉化為更廣泛的地方國家能力提升。迴歸模型結果顯示,USMID對自有財源收入成長沒有統計上顯著的影響,並且對全國性績效評估表現有統計上顯著的負面影響。這些研究結果顯示,能力建構活動應更集中於地方政府既有的治理職責,而非補助管理所需的官僚程序要求。


    This thesis examines the effect of performance-based development grants on local state capacity. It evaluates the Uganda Support to Municipal Infrastructure Development (USMID) program, a US$560 million World Bank development program implemented from 2013 to 2024 to improve urban infrastructure and the institutional performance of Ugandan local governments. The study compares 22 USMID urban local governments with 19 non-USMID urban local governments using a mixed-methods design. State capacity is measured using own-source revenue generation and scores on a nationwide performance assessment. The quantitative analysis is supplemented by case studies of four urban local governments. The thesis argues that while USMID built capacity to comply with grant management requirements, there is no evidence that this translated into generalized state capacity gains. Regression models find no statistically significant effect of USMID on own-source revenue growth, and a statistically significant negative effect on the nationwide performance assessment. These findings suggest that capacity-building activities should be more heavily targeted towards existing governance responsibilities rather than the bureaucratic requirements of grant management.

    Chapter 1 Introduction 7
    1.1 Research Motivation 7
    1.2 Research Question 8
    1.3 Research Strategy and Limitations 10
    1.4 Structure 12
    Chapter 2 Literature Review 15
    2.1 State Capacity Definitions 15
    2.2 State Capacity and International Development 16
    2.3 Case Studies Literature 20
    2.4 Case Selection 21
    2.5 Measurement 26
    2.6 Expected Outcomes 28
    Chapter 3 Methodology 31
    3.1 Data 31
    3.2 Quantitative Analysis Methodology 35
    3.3 Case Study Analysis Methodology 37
    Chapter 4 Quantitative Results and Analysis 39
    4.1 Own-Source Revenue Analysis 39
    4.2 Local Government Management of Service Delivery Analysis 46
    Chapter 5 Case Study Analysis 51
    5.1 Jinja 51
    5.2 Masaka 53
    5.3 Njeru 55
    5.4 Kapchorwa 57
    5.5 Conclusion 58
    Chapter 6 Discussion and Conclusion 61
    References 65
    Appendix 77
    Appendix A: Own-Source Revenue Data 78
    Appendix B: Own-Source Revenue Data Summary 79
    Appendix C: Own-Source Revenue Growth Model with All Year Pairs 80
    Appendix D: Local Government Management of Service Delivery (LGMSD) Themes and Subscores 81
    Appendix E: Local Government Management of Service Delivery (LGMSD) Full Regression Table 86
    Appendix F: Census Boundary Corrections 90

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