Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1. Research Topic 4
2. The Argument 6
3. The Assumptions, Primary Goals and Strategies 7
4. Conceptual Framework 8
4.1 Theoretical constraints of the international system 9
4.2 Taiwan’s position in the international immunity 9
5. Literature Review 10
5.1 Structural Realism, Anarchy and the International System 10
5.2 Kenneth Walt and the Study of International Relations 11
6. Methodology: Sources and Process 12
6.1 Sources Classification 12
6.2 Methodological Barriers 13
Chapter 2: Conceptual Framework 15
1. Classical Realist Thinkers 16
1.1 Thucydides’ Account of the Peloponnesian War 16
1.2 St. Augustine and Human’s Nature 18
1.3 Niccolo Machiavelli and the Role of the Leadership 18
1.4 Thomas Hobbes and Anarchy 19
2. Hans Morgenthau and the Balance of Power 19
2.1 Relations Between Individuals and Relations Among Nations 20
2.2 Autonomy of the Politics, Morality and Power 21
2.3 International Politics and the Balance of Power 22
3. Kenneth Waltz: Structural Aspects of the Balance of Power 23
3.1 A scientific theory of international relations 24
3.2 Structure, Domestic and International Politics and Anarchy 27
3.3 Structures as Independent Determinants of Behavior 28
3.4 Economic and Political Effects of Anarchy 29
3.5 Anarchy and Change 31
4. Stephen Walt: Alliance Politics and the Balance-of-Threat 32
4.1 States’ Behavior in a Balance-of-Threats Theory 33
4.2 Factors Influencing the Level of Threat 34
5. Barry Posen and the Buck-Passing Strategy 35
5.1 The Origins of War 36
5.2 The Number of Great Powers and Buck-Passing Behaviors 36
Chapter 3: Ambiguous Ambiguity 39
1. Strategic Ambiguity in Historical Perspective 40
1.1 The Second World War 40
1.2 Mutual Defense Treaty with Taipei 41
1.3 Normalization of Sino-American relations 43
1.4 Taiwan Relations Act 45
1.5 F-16 Arms sales and Taiwan Strait crisis 49
1.6 ‘Three noes’ policy vs. ‘State-to-state’ theory 51
1.7 Washington-Beijing-Taipei relations in the 21st century 52
2. The U.S. objectives in the Cross-Strait Stalemate 54
2.1 Commitment to Taiwan Defense 55
2.2 Commitment to the ‘Status Quo’ 55
Chapter 4: Rise to Superpower Status 59
1. and the Sino-American Normalization 61
2.1 The Korean War and the Sino-Soviet Threat 61
2.2 The Jinmen Crises and the Rise of the Beijing Threat 65
2.3 The Sino-Soviet Split and the Expansion of the Soviet Threat 67
2.4 Sino-American Normalization and the Balance of Power 69
2.5 Arms sales to Taiwan 70
2. The American Factor in post-ECFA Cross-Strait Relations 72
2.1 The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the Rise of a Unipolar World 73
2.2 Balancing the United States 75
2.3 The signing of the ECFA 75
2.4 Washington views of the ECFA signing 79
3. Ma Ying-jeou’s pragmatic diplomacy 81
Chapter 5: Conclusion 87
Bibliography 92