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| 研究生： |
林澤慶 Lin, Tse-Ching |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
網球雙打選手的技能評分模型探討 A Study on Skill-Rating Models for Doubles Tennis Players |
| 指導教授： |
翁久幸
Weng, Chiu-Hsing |
| 口試委員: |
陳定立
Chen, Ting-Li 黃子銘 Huang, Tzee-Ming |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 統計學系 Department of Statistics |
| 論文出版年： | 2021 |
| 畢業學年度： | 109 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 35 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 技能評分系統 、職業網球雙打 、場地 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | Skill-rating System, Professional Tennis Doubles, Surfaces |
| DOI URL： | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101154 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：333 下載：16 |
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技能評分系統是根據參賽隊伍的比賽戰績與其他相關資料，以評估隊伍實力與預測獲勝機率的一套計算方法。以職業網球比賽為例，選手的實力發揮往往受到比賽場地因素的影響，近年有學者針對網球單打提出一個將場地因素納入考量的模型，研究結果顯示納入場地因素的模型可以更準確地預測獲勝機率。本論文參考文獻中的相關討論，將此模型推廣至職業網球雙打比賽。本研究結果顯示納入場地因素於雙打比賽可以提高預測準確率，此外更新技能變數的變異程度也可提高預測準確率。
A skill-rating system is a system that evaluates players’ skills and predict the winning probability based on competition records and relevant information. Take Association of Tennis Professionals as an example. Player’s performance is often affected by the surfaces. In recent years, some researchers have proposed models that take surfaces into consideration for tennis singles. Research results show that models incorporating surfaces can more accurately predict the probability of winning. The present thesis aims to extend this model to tennis doubles matches. The experimental results show that the inclusion of surfaces in doubles matches can improve the accuracy of prediction.
第1章 緒論 7
1.1 研究動機 7
1.2 研究目的 8
第2章 文獻回顧 9
2.1 Bradley-Terry Model 9
2.2 Elo 10
2.3 Glicko 11
第3章 研究方法 14
3.1 GenElo Surface Model 14
3.2 多組別多組員之比賽 16
3.3 結合場地於雙打比賽 18
第4章 資料介紹 23
4.1 ATP雙打資料集 23
第5章 分析結果 25
5.1 參數設定 25
5.2 評估準則 28
5.3 模型預測結果 28
5.3.1 多組別多組員之比賽 28
5.3.2 結合場地於雙打比賽 29
5.3.3 整體 32
第6章 結論與建議 33
參考文獻 34
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