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研究生: 巴圖克
Batgerel Baljinnyam
論文名稱: 投資機會:在蒙古烏蘭巴托開發奧特萊斯購物中心
Investment Opportunity: Developing an Outlet Mall in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
指導教授: 徐愛恩
Tsui, Stephanie
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA)
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 64
中文關鍵詞: 奧特萊斯購物中心開發烏蘭巴托穿戴策略投資經濟
外文關鍵詞: Outlet mall development, Ulaanbaatar, apparel expenditure, tourism impact, investment strategy, economic growth
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  • 本研究探討了在蒙古烏蘭巴托開發中檔高檔奧特萊斯購物中心的可行性,利用不斷增長的家庭服裝支出、日益增長的旅遊業和城市化趨勢。預計到 2025 年,每個家庭的年度服裝支出將達到 196.30 美元,比 2023 年增加 23.5%。該研究評估了市場需求、競爭定位和財務可行性。
    主要調查結果顯示,烏蘭巴托擁有 45 萬戶家庭,且遊客數量不斷增長,預計每年服裝市場的規模將達到 8,830 萬美元,因此,該市場蘊藏著巨大的市場機會。建議的租戶組合為 50% 中檔品牌、30% 經濟型品牌和 20% 高端品牌,以符合當地和遊客的消費模式。財務分析顯示初始投資為 8,580 萬美元,預計內部報酬率為 14%,在中等成長情況下投資回收期為 7-9 年。


    This study explores the feasibility of developing a mid-range premium outlet mall in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, capitalizing on rising household apparel expenditures, increasing tourism, and urbanization trends. Annual clothing expenditures per household are projected to reach $196.30 by 2025, 23.5% increase from 2023. The study evaluates market demand, competitive positioning, and financial viability.
    Key findings indicate a substantial market opportunity, with Ulaanbaatar’s 450,000 households and growing tourist influx contributing to an estimated $88.3 million annual clothing market. A recommended tenant mix of 50% mid-range, 30% budget, and 20% premium brands aligns with local and tourist spending patterns. Financial analysis suggests an initial investment of $85.8 million, with a projected 14% IRR and a 7–9 year payback period under moderate growth scenarios.

    1. Introduction 1
    1.1. International Investment and Collaboration 2
    1.2. Transportation and Traffic jam situation in Ulaanbaatar city 3
    2. Macro-economic Factors 6
    2.1. Economy 7
    2.1.1. Foreign Investment Policies & Tax Incentives 10
    2.1.2. Trade Agreements & Supply Chain Optimization 11
    2.1.3. Tourism Policies & Retail Synergies 11
    2.1.4. Mongolian Government Regulation 13
    2.2. Tourism Industry 13
    3. Market analysis 16
    3.1. Potential Customer Demographics 16
    3.2. Consumer behavior 18
    3.3. Competitive Analysis 20
    4. Business Model & Concept 26
    4.1. Store Concept 26
    4.2. Pricing & Positioning 26
    4.3. Tenant Mix 26
    4.3.1. Operational Management Models for the Ulaanbaatar Outlet Mall 29
    4.4. Location Selection 34
    5. Financial Highlights & Cash Flow Analysis 40
    5.1. Funding Sources 40
    5.2. Scenario Planning 43
    5.3. Exit Strategy 47
    5.4. Cost analysis 49
    5.4.1. Construction Cost Breakdown 51
    5.4.2. Operating cost 54
    5.4.3. Key Cost Reductions & Optimization Strategies 55
    5.5. Revenue Projections 56
    5.5.1. Rental Income 56
    5.5.2. Total Revenue 56
    5.6. Profit & Loss (P&L) Forecast 57
    5.7. Cash Flow & ROI Analysis 58
    5.7.1. 10-Year Cash Flow Statement 58
    5.7.2. Return on Investment (ROI) Analysis 59
    5.8. Sensitivity Analysis 60
    6. Conclusion 61
    Reference 63

    1. National Statistics office Of Mongolia
    2. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
    3. UB Chamber of Commerce 2023 survey
    4. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/MNG#countrydata
    5. https://time.com/7209066/mongolia-prime-minister-oyun-erdene-luvsannamsrai-uranium-france-putin-trump/
    6. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mongolia-ebrd-partner-advance-renewable-energy-2025-01-21/
    7. https://miningdigital.com/articles/rio-tinto-commences-copper-production-at-oyu-tolgoi
    8. https://english.news.cn/20250119/2343ddbcc0084c4cadb63471ea68603e/c.html
    9. https://montsame.mn/en/read/361746#:~:text=Mongolia%20is%20seeking%20to%20welcome,travel%20experience%20are%20top%20priorities.
    10. https://ikon.mn/n/38mj
    11. https://www.statista.com/outlook/co/consumption-indicators/mongolia
    12. https://www.start.io/audience/discount-shoppers-in-mongolia
    13. https://www.1212.mn/mn/dissemination/92570451
    14. https://montsame.mn/mn/read/342836
    15. Mongolia Investment Agency (https://investmongolia.gov.mn)
    16. WTO Trade Policy Review: Mongolia (2023)
    17. Bank of Mongolia Foreign Investment Guidelines
    18. UB Consumer Panel Survey
    19. https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/asia/mongolia/price-history

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