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研究生: 陳美惠
論文名稱: 非線性時間序列轉折區間認定之模糊統計分析
Fuzzy Statistical Analysis for Change Periods Detection in Nonlinear Time Series
指導教授: 吳柏林
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 商學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 1999
畢業學年度: 87
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 65
外文關鍵詞: Revised centered cumulative sums of squares, Genetic-based searching, Leading genetic model
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  • Many papers have been presented on the study of change points detection. Nonetheless, we would like to point out that in dealing with the time series with switching regimes, we should also take the characteristics of change periods into account. Because many patterns of change structure in time series exhibit a certain kind of duration, those phenomena should not be treated as a mere sudden turning at a certain time.

    In this paper, we propose procedures about change periods detection for nonlinear time series. One of the detecting statistical methods is an application of fuzzy classification and generalization of Inclan and Tiao’s result. Moreover, we develop the genetic-based searching procedure, which is based on the concepts of leading genetic model. Simulation results show that the performance of these procedures is efficient and successful. Finally, two empirical applications about change periods detection for Taiwan monthly visitors arrival and exchange rate are demonstrated.

    封面頁
    證明書
    致謝詞
    論文摘要
    目錄
    表目錄
    圖目錄
    Chapter 1   Introduction
    1.1 Motivations
    1.2 Literatures Review of Change Points Detection
    Chapter 2   Identification of Change Periods
    2.1 Reviews of Change-point Detection
    2.2 Statistics for Centered Cumulative Sums of Squares
    2.3 Rules for Classification
    Chapter 3   Clustering with Fuzzy Statistics
    3.1 Fuzzy Statistics
    3.2 Using Fuzzy Entropy
    Chapter 4 Genetic-based Searching
    4.1 Genetic Algorithms
    4.2 Revised Forward Selection of Leading Genetic Models
    4.3 Genetic-based Searching for Change Periods
    Chapter 5 Simulation Studies
    5.1 Models Simulation
    5.2 The Application of Revised CUSUM Algorithm
    5.3 The Application of Genetic-based Searching
    Chapter 6   Empirical Examples
    6.1 Application to Taiwan Monthly Visitors Arrival
    6.2 Application to Taiwan Monthly Exchange Rates
    Chapter 7   Conclusions
    References

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