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研究生: 劉正萱
Liu, Cheng-Hsuan
論文名稱: 法人說明會情緒動態變化對股價報酬之影響:以美國股票市場為例
The Impact of Tone Dynamics during Earnings Calls on Stock Returns: the U.S. Stock Market
指導教授: 林靖庭
Lin, Ching-Ting
口試委員: 洪偉峰
Hung, Wei-Feng
林建秀
Lin, Chien-Hsiu
陳虹伶
Chen, Hung-Ling
吳牧恩
Wu, Mu-En
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 金融學系
Department of Money and Banking
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 53
中文關鍵詞: 自然語言處理語調分析動態語調法說會公司管理層分析師
外文關鍵詞: Natural language processing, Tone analysis, Dynamic tones, Earnings call, Corporate manager, Analyst
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  • 法說會作為企業與市場溝通的重要橋樑,除了量化的企業財務數據外,與會者在會議中所展現出的質性資訊亦蘊含高度價值。故,本文以美國S&P 500企業作為樣本,以法說會與會者之語調情緒作為研究因子,探討不同環節、不同角色在法說會中所展現的情緒差異是否影響短期股價報酬。相較過往研究曾關注法說會參與者之個體(如公司管理層、外部分析師)靜態情緒分析,本文更著重於各參與角色在對話中展現出的情緒動態差異對市場的影響性。於此,此研究的主要發現為:法說會「問答環節分析師提問段落」與「公司報告環節」之情緒變動與個股股價表現呈現正相關,當分析師情緒呈現下滑情形時,股價隨之下跌,有效減弱公司管理層過度美化的報告影響力。進一步將此結果進行剖析,則得出兩項發現:首先,高機構投資人佔比的個股展現出更高相關性;再者,當分析師在法說會中參與程度越踴躍時,此正向相關程度亦更為明顯,意即分析師情緒相較報告環節下降越多,股價跌落幅度越深。


    Earnings calls serve as a crucial bridge for communication between corporations and the market. Beyond quantitative financial data, the qualitative information exhibited by participants during these meetings also holds significant value. Thus, this paper uses the S&P 500 companies as samples and examines the tone of participants during earnings calls as research variables. It explores whether the tone gaps displayed by different roles and in different segments of the earnings call impact short-term stock returns. Unlike previous studies that focused on static tone analysis of individual participants (such as corporate managers and analysts), this paper emphasizes the differences in tone dynamics exhibited by various roles during the dialogue and their market impact. The main findings of this research are as follows: The tone difference between 'analyst question' and 'corporate reporting' of the earnings calls shows a positive correlation with the performance of individual stock prices. When analysts’ tones decline, stock prices tend to fall, effectively reducing the impact of overly optimistic reports from corporate managers. Further analysis of these results reveals two findings: First, stocks with a higher proportion of institutional investors show a stronger correlation; second, the more active the analysts' participation in the earnings calls, the more pronounced this positive correlation, meaning that the more analysts’ tones drop compared to the reporting, the deeper the stock price fall.

    第一章 研究動機與貢獻 1
    第一節 研究動機 1
    第二節 研究發現 3
    第三節 研究貢獻 4

    第二章 研究方法 6
    第一節 自然語言處理 6
    第二節 法說會文本處理 8
    第三節 情緒分數計算方式 9
    第四節 實證分析架構 11

    第三章 資料描述 13

    第四章 實證分析結果 16
    第一節 敘述統計 16
    第二節 實證分析結果 20

    第五章 延伸分析結果 29
    第一節 專業投資人關注程度情境分析 29
    第二節 法說會分析師參與程度情境分析 37

    第六章 結論與展望 44

    第七章 參考文獻 47

    第八章 附錄 51

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