| 研究生: |
張孟溢 Chang, Meng Yi |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣股票市場的產業外溢效果 Spillover of industry effect in Taiwan stock market |
| 指導教授: |
郭維裕
Kuo, Wei Yu |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系 Department of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 2010 |
| 畢業學年度: | 98 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 45 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 外溢效果 、一般化向量自我相關模型 、產業 、波動 、報酬 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Spillover, generalized VAR, industry, volatility, return |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:145 下載:32 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
We investigate the spillover of industry effect in Taiwan stock market. Using a generalized vector autoregressive where forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to variable ordering, we objectively propose measures of both total and directional spillovers on return and volatility daily data. In full-sample analysis, there is a heavy spillover effect in the interaction between stock market and industries. The stock market acts as a receiver from the information diffused from the industries, but the industries could not be confirmed as spillover outputer or inputer. The rolling-sample findings also pinpoint the high spillovers during the financial events. Finally, conducting the robustness test, we divide the sample periods into subperiods and switch the daily data toward weekly and monthly data, then obtaining the consistent results with prior inference.
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
Chapter 2. Generalized Spillover Definition and Measurement5
Chapter 3. Data 9
Chapter 4. Empirical study in Taiwan market 11
4.1 Full- sample spillover analysis
4.2 Rolling-sample spillover analysis
Chapter 5. Robustness 19
5.1 Subperiods
5.2 Weekly and monthly data
Chapter 6. Conclusion 25
References
Alizadeh, S., Brandt, M.W. and Diebold, F.X. (2002). “Range-based estimation of stochastic volatility models,” Journal of Finance, vol. 57(3):, 1047–92.
Bollerslev, Tim, (1986), “Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,” Journal of Econometrics 31, 307-327.
Cavaglia, Stefano, Dimitris Melas, and George Tsouderos. (2000). “Cross-Industry
and Cross-Country International Equity Diversification”. The Journal of
Investing. Vol. 9, no.1: 65-71
Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2009), "Measuring Financial Asset Return and
Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic
Journal, 119: 158-171.
Diebold, F.X. and Yilmaz, K. (2010), "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive
Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," International Journal of
Forecasting, forthcoming. (With discussion.)
Edwards, S. and Susmel, R., (2001).” Volatility dependence and contagion in
emerging equity markets.” Journal of Development Economics, 66: 505-532.
Edwards, S. and Susmel, R.,( 2003).” Interest-rate volatility in emerging markets.”
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 :328-348.
Engle, Robert E., (1982).” Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with
estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation,” Econometrica 50:
987-1007.
Engle, R.F., Ito, T., Lin,W., (1990).” Meteor showers or heat waves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market.” Econometrica 58: 525–542.
Eun, C.S., Shim, S. (1989), “International Transmission of Stock Market
Movements,” Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis, 24: 241-256.
Forbes, K., Rigobon, R. (2002), “No Contagion, only Interdependence: Measuring
Stock Market Comovements,” Journal of Finance, 57: 2223-2261.
Garman, M.B. and Klass, M.J. (1980). “On the estimation of security price volatilities from historical data,” Journal of Business, vol. 53(1): 67–78.
Hamao, Y., Masulis, R.W., Ng, V. (1990), “Correlations in Price Changes and
Volatility across International Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 3:
281-307.
Hamilton, J.D., (1989). “A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary
time series and the business cycle.” Econometrica 57:357–384
Hamilton, J.D. and Susmel, R., (1994). “Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
and changes in regime.” Journal of Econometrics, 64 :307-333.
Harvey, C.R. (1995), “Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 8: 773-816.
Heston, Steven L. and K. Geert Rouwenhorst. (1994). “Does Industrial Structure Explain the Benefits of Industrial Diversification?” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 36, no.1: 3 –27.
Hong, H., Stein, J.,( 1999).” A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets.” Journal of Finance 54 :2143–2184.
Hong, H. and Torous, W. and Valkanov, R. (2007), “Do Industries Lead Stock Markets?” Journal of Financial Economics 83:367-396.
Karolyi, G.A. (1995). “A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions
of Stock Returns and Volatility: The case of the United States and Canada,”
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13 :11-25.
King, Mervyn A and Wadhwani, Sushil, (1990). "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1) :5-33.
King, M., Sentana, E. and Wadhwani, S. (1994), “Volatility and Links Between
National Stock Markets,” Econometrica, 62 : 901-933.
Koop, G., Pesaran, M.H., and Potter, S.M. (1996), “Impulse Response Analysis in
Non-Linear Multivariate Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 74: 119–147.
Lessard, Donald. (1974). “World, National, and Industry Factors in Equity Returns”.
Journal of Finance. Vol. 29, no. 3: 379-391.
Morana, C., Beltratti, A. (2006), “Comovements in International Stock Markets,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, forthcoming.
Parkinson, M. (1980), “The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return,” Journal of Business, 53: 61-65.
Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1998), “Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in
Linear Multivariate Models,” Economics Letters, 58: 17-29.
Richards, A.J. (1995), “Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability, but not Cointegration,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 36: 631-654.
Shiller, R., (2000).” Irrational Exuberance.” Broadway Books, New York.
Sims, C., (2001).” Rational Inattention.” Princeton University Working Paper.