| 研究生: |
德希蒙 Simon Deutsch |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
戴姆勒小客車中國市場風險分析 A risk analysis of the Chinese market for Daimler’s passenger car business |
| 指導教授: |
冷則剛
Leng, Tse-Kang |
| 口試委員: |
何富年
Ho, Foo-Nin 張大為 Chang, David |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA) |
| 論文出版年: | 2019 |
| 畢業學年度: | 107 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 94 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 中國 、汽車產業 、風險分析 、戴姆勒 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | China, Automotive market, Risk analysis, Daimler |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201900202 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:109 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
The Chinese market for Automobiles underwent a rapid development in the last 40 years and now is the biggest market in the world. Many foreign carmakers also entered the market, mostly through joint venture agreements with local companies.
Daimler AG is the mother company of the oldest car brand in the world, Mercedes-Benz. For Daimler’s passenger car business, China became the single biggest market in 2015 and the company is now active in the market with different joint ventures operating R&D, production and sales facilities. The sheer size of the Chinese automotive market offered and offers great opportunities for Daimler’s passenger car business but also exposes the company to certain business risks: Firstly, a slowdown in general economic growth and a less dynamic automotive market naturally impose a risk on a company who sells a big proportion of its cars in China. Recently, the macroeconomic situation is also influenced by the US-Chinese trade disputes. Secondly, within the markets there are certain risks threatening Daimler’s market position such as new customer preferences for mobility services instead of car ownership, not being able to keep up with the demand for electric vehicles, losing customers’ trust as well as risks that come with the joint venture relationships as well as the legal environment in China. This thesis aims at assessing Daimler’s management of these risks by using statements given by top managers over the past years.
1. Introduction 1
1.1. History of the Chinese Automotive Market 3
1.2. The Chinese Automotive Market Today 8
1.2.1. Passenger Car Sales in China 8
1.2.2. Passenger Car Production in China 10
1.2.3. Import & Export of Passenger Cars 11
1.2.4. Governmental Market Steering 13
1.3. German Carmakers in China 14
1.4. Daimler in China 16
1.4.1. Beijing Benz Automotive (BBAC) 18
1.4.2. Mercedes-Benz Sales Service 20
1.4.3. Foton Benz 21
1.4.4. Fujian Benz 22
1.4.5. Denza 23
1.4.6. Joint Ventures with Geely 24
2. Risk Analysis of the Passenger Car Market in China 25
2.1. Risks derived from Macroeconomic Developments 26
2.1.1. Development of the Chinese Economy 26
2.1.2. Development of the Passenger Car Market in China 29
2.1.3. The US-China Trade Dispute 31
2.2. Risks derived from the Qualitative Development of the Automotive Market in China 32
2.2.1. Changes in Customer Behavior and Preferences 32
2.2.2. E-Mobility as a Game Changer 36
2.2.3. Angry Netizens – The Risk of Upsetting the Chinese Public 39
2.2.4. Joint Venture Relations as a Risk Factor 42
2.2.5. The Legal Environment in China 44
3. Risk Analysis of the Chinese Passenger Car Market for Daimler 47
3.1. Risk of unfavorable Market Development for Daimler 48
3.2. Risk from the US-China Trade Disputes 55
3.3. Risks from Shifts in Consumer Preferences away from Vehicle Ownership 59
3.4. Risks related to the Rise of E-Mobility in China 63
3.5. Risk of Causing Negative Publicity 67
3.6. Risk through Joint Venture Relations 70
3.7. Risk through Copyright Infringements 75
4. Conclusion & Outlook 77
5. References 79
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http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/byd-tang-plug-in-hybrid-aus-china-auf-dem-nuerburgring-a-1239906.html
https://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/warum-lange-entwicklungszyklen-fuer-autohersteller-zum-problem-werden-a-881990.html
https://www.stimme.de/suedwesten/wirtschaft/wi/Auto-Daimler-Deutschland-China-Baden-Wuerttemberg-Daimler-grundsaetzlich-offen-fuer-Zusammenarbeit-mit-Geely;art19071,3995923
https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.interview-mit-hubertus-troska-die-s-klasse-bleibt-in-sindelfingen.48a5bb12-2103-478c-b171-0725757c5cce.html
https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.mercedes-entwicklungschef-ola-kaellenius-die-kosten-sind-eine-herausforderung.933d6dbe-0552-4a2a-8751-bcc22956e0d9.html
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/auto/carsharing-wie-in-den-anfangstagen-von-amazon-1.1882061
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/auto/smart-geht-nach-china-rache-auf-schwaebisch-1.215262
https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/26/geely-becomes-daimlers-largest-shareholder-with-9-billion-stake/
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/16/18389666/electric-sedans-nio-xpeng-geely-shanghai-auto-show
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsrv/inatl/longterm/flash/june/china71.htm??noredirect=on
https://www.weekinchina.com/2019/04/dealing-with-disaster/
Official Company Information and Releases
All Online Sources have been accessed and tested on June 09, 2019
Audi:
https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/production-232
https://www.audi.com/en/company/profile/locations.html
BAIC:
http://en.baicgroup.com.cn/index.php?r=index/default/cate&id=133&tid=104
BMW:
https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/downloads/de/2010/termine-und-events/BMW_in_CHINA.pdf
https://www.bmw.com.cn/zh/all-models.html
https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ir/technologie_workshops/BMW%20Group%20Product,%20Technology%20and%20Business%20Update%202018%2020181203%20-%20Production%20Network.pdf
BYD:
http://bydeurope.com/company/history.php
Daimler:
Daimler AG and DaimlerChrysler Annual Reports accessible under:
https://www.daimler.com/investors/reports/annual-reports/
https://www.daimler.com/career/about-us/locations/location-detail-page-5184.html
https://annualreport.daimler.com/ar2018/combined-management-report/liquidity-and-capital-resources/investment-in-propery-plant-and-equipment
https://annualreport.daimler.com/ar2018/the-divisions/daimler-trucks#
https://blog.car2go.com/de/2014/02/26/people2know-rainer-becker/
https://blog.daimler.com/2018/03/20/smart-fortwo-car2go-china/
https://blog.daimler.com/2018/03/28/joint-venture-bmw-daimler-mobility-services/
https://blog.daimler.com/en/2019/03/28/joint-venture-geely-daimler-smart-china/
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko.xhtml?oid=14752002
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko.xhtml?oid=41827136&ls=L3NlYXJjaHJlc3VsdC9zZWFyY2hyZXN1bHQueGh0bWw_c2VhcmNoU3RyaW5nPUNoaW5hJnNlYXJjaElkPTAmc2VhcmNoVHlwZT1kZXRhaWxlZCZib3JkZXJzPXRydWUmcmVzdWx0SW5mb1R5cGVJZD00MDYyNiZ2aWV3VHlwZT1saXN0JnNvcnREZWZpbml0aW9uPVBVQkxJU0hFRF9BVC0yJnRodW1iU2NhbGVJbmRleD0wJnJvd0NvdW50c0luZGV4PTU!&rs=3
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Best-Global-Brands-2018--the-star-shines-Mercedes-Benz-is-the-worlds-most-valuable-premium-automobile-brand.xhtml?oid=41444132
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Daimler-buys-battery-cells-in-a-total-volume-of-20-billion-euros.xhtml?oid=42042973
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Mercedes-Benz-grows-worldwide-sales-in-November.xhtml?oid=42011381
https://www.daimler.com/career/about-us/locations/location-detail-page-5185.html
https://www.daimler.com/career/about-us/locations/location-detail-page-5186.html
https://www.daimler.com/career/about-us/locations/location-detail-page-5244.html
https://www.daimler.com/case/en/
https://www.daimler.com/company/joint-venture-with-geely.html
https://www.daimler.com/company/locations/daimler-to-expand-local-mercedes-benz-production-with-its-partner-in-china.html
https://www.daimler.com/company/locations/daimler-to-expand-local-mercedes-benz-production-with-its-partner-in-china.html
https://www.daimler.com/company/tradition/company-history/
https://www.daimler.com/documents/investors/news/capital-market-releases/daimler-mercedes-benz-ir-release-en-20181206.pdf
https://www.daimler.com/innovation/case/shared-services/daimler-and-geely.html
https://www.daimler.com/innovation/next/teile-und-fahre-carsharing-in-china.html
https://www.smartchina.com.cn/
https://www.smartusa.com/about-us
Denza:
https://denza.com/portal/page/index/id/8.html?lang=en
Geely:
http://global.geely.com/history/
Porsche:
https://www.porsche.com/china/en/
https://www.porsche.com/china/en/aboutporsche/aboutporschechina/
Audio and Video Material:
All Online Sources have been accessed and tested on June 09, 2019
Daimler Headlights Audio Podcast – Interview with Chief Economist Müller
https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9oZWFkbGlnaHRzLnBvZGlnZWUuaW8vZmVlZC9tcDM%3D&episode=MDc1NDc4MGZmZWExNzM0NTcwM2FiYWMzZjcyNTgwMDM%3D
Video Interview with Dr. Dieter Zetsche
https://www.swr.de/swr-extra/daimler-boss-dankt-ab-dieter-zetsche-im-gespraech-mit-swr-chefredakteur-fritz-frey/-/id=5692094/did=24105834/nid=5692094/j4es5x/index.html
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