| 研究生: |
邱政憲 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
影響壽險業房貸違約因素之研究 The determinants on residential mortgage default ─ life insurance industry as an example |
| 指導教授: | 林左裕 |
| 口試委員: |
彭建文
林哲群 林左裕 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 地政學系碩士在職專班 The Master Program of Land Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2017 |
| 畢業學年度: | 105 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 99 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 壽險業 、房貸 、違約 、財務會計準則公報第三十四號 、壽險契約 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Life insurance industry, Residential mortgage, Default, FAS 34, Life insurance contracts |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:59 下載:25 |
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2010年壽險業放款備抵呆帳提列新增財務會計準則公報第三十四號之標準,本文以壽險業保戶為研究對象,採用公報之違約定義,探討過去研究房貸違約顯著因素在新違約定義下之顯著性;另增加壽險契約效力相關變數,以了解壽險契約效力對房貸的影響。採用羅吉特迴歸模型實證結果,過去房貸違約顯著因素在新違約定義下對於保戶房貸依然顯著。而壽險契約的停效或終止除對於房貸違約有顯著影響外,其預警作用亦有助於壽險業資金運用。此外,壽險業者在都會與非都會區或各擔保品分區間,可基於違約顯著因素差異採取不同的徵信方式。
In 2010, the Financial Accounting Standards No. 34 (FAS 34) was added in the assessment of bad debt reserve for mortgage in the insurance industry. Targeting the life insurance proposer and adopting the definition of “default” in FAS 34, this research paper analyses the significance of prominent parameters in residential mortgage default. In addition, this study introduces variables associated with contract effectiveness to explore the impact of live insurance contract effectiveness on mortgage. The empirical results of the logit model indicate that both previous prominent parameters and parameters about status of life insurance contracts are significant in determining default behavior. Therefore, alerts from suspension or termination of life insurance contracts are beneficial to capital manipulation of loan portfolio. Furthermore, life insurance industry could differentiate credit investigation between urban and rural areas or in different collateral regions according to distinct significant determinants.
第一章 緒 論…………………1
第一節 研究動機………………1
第二節 研究目的…………………4
第三節 研究範圍與架構…………………5
第二章 文獻回顧8
第一節 抵押放款種類與提前終止…………8
第二節 違約因素相關文獻………10
第三節 其他相關文獻…………24
第三章 壽險業資金運用之簡介…………………27
第一節 壽險業資金運用之原則………………27
第二節 壽險業資金運用項目…………………28
第三節 放款業務監理機關及監理措施……32
第四節 違約定義……………………35
第五節 備抵呆帳提列…………40
第四章 研究設計與方法………47
第一節 資料說明……………………47
第二節 自變數之敘述統計…………49
第三節 研究方法……………………51
第四節 變數說明與預測………55
第五節 交叉分析結果…………64
第五章 實證結果與分析…………69
第一節 模型適合度檢定………69
第二節 違約顯著影響因子……72
第三節 違約預測機率…………82
第六章 結論與建議………………87
第一節 結 論………87
第二節 建 議………90
參考文獻………………92
表 次
表2-1 違約因素相關文獻整理………23
表3-1 保險業資金運用相關規範……………………29
表3-2 壽險業資金運用表(2011年~2015年) ……………31
表3-3 中央銀行不動產貸款針對性之總體審慎措施………33
表4-1 各年度放款件數、金額及餘額統計…48
表4-2 未減損及減損案件件數、金額統計…48
表4-3 放款存續期間件數統計……49
表4-4 自變數敘述統計………………50
表4-5 自變數皮爾森相關係數………50
表4-6 允差及變異數膨脹因素一覽表……………51
表4-7 104年台灣地區家庭收支調查(年齡)……57
表4-8 104年台灣地區家庭收支調查(學歷)……57
表4-9 擔保品分區概況………………61
表4-10 應變數及自變數定義及預測…………64
表4-11 放款成數交叉統計………64
表4-12 寬限期交叉統計……………65
表4-13 放款用途交叉統計………65
表4-14 放款類別交叉統計………65
表4-15 借款人年齡交叉統計……65
表4-16 借款人學歷交叉統計……66
表4-17 借款人年所得交叉統計………………66
表4-18 借款人婚姻狀況交叉統計……………66
表4-19 是否解約、停效或終止交叉統計……67
表4-20 次貸危機期間貸放交叉統計…………67
表4-21 擔保品屋齡交叉統計…67
表4-22 擔保品縣市交叉統計…67
表4-23 擔保品分區交叉統計…68
表5-1 卡方檢定及離差………………69
表5-2 Hosmer及Lemeshow配適度檢定…………70
表5-3 實證結果……71
表5-4 六都及非六都自變數顯著性…………………77
表5-5 擔保品分區自變數顯著性………………………79
表5-6 各自變數之勝算………………82
表5-7 模型預測能力分析…………86
圖 次
圖1-1 存放款加權平均利率………3
圖1-2 研究流程圖………6
圖4-1 失業率與本國銀行逾放比分布……………58
圖4-2 房價指數(2001~2015年)………………………62
圖4-3 經濟成長率與本國銀行逾放比分布……62
圖4-4 基準放款利率與本國銀行逾放比分布…63
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林左裕與賴郁媛,(2005)。我國銀行業逾放比與總體經濟因素間關係之研究。商管科技季刊,6卷1期,頁165-179。
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張哲銘、王貞靜與謝昇樺,(2014)。放款品質、經營績效與資訊不對稱─兼論34號公報第三次修訂之效果。會計審計論叢,4卷1期,頁53-98。
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三、網際網路(最後造訪日期均為2016.12.03)
中華民國統計資訊網:https://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4
中央銀行統計資訊網:http://www.pxweb.cbc.gov.tw/dialog/statfile9.asp
中華民國人壽保險商業同業公會:http://www.lia-roc.org.tw/
立法院法律系統:http://lis.ly.gov.tw/lglawc/lglawkm
全國法規資料庫:http://law.moj.gov.tw/
金融監督管理委員會銀行局:http://www.banking.gov.tw/ch/
金融監督管理委員會保險局:http://www.ib.gov.tw/ch/
金融監督管理委員會證券期貨局:http://www.sfb.gov.tw/ch/index.jsp
財團法人保險事業發展中心:http://www.tii.org.tw/opencms/actuarial/actuarial1/
財團法人會計研究發展基金會:http://www.ardf.org.tw/ardf.html
國家發展委員會景氣指標查詢系統:http://index.ndc.gov.tw/n/zh_tw