本論文以分量迴歸估計方法探討民主與經濟發展的關係,
在政治民主對經濟成長的影響上,使用全世界78國1960-2008年的年資料並以追蹤資料分量迴歸方法進行分析,
實證結果發現民主對經濟成長的影響具非線性的關係,
且在經濟成長率高時呈正U型的影響,而在低經濟成長時兩者呈倒U型關係。此結果顯示在經濟繁榮時民主透過競租行為影響經濟較為嚴重,
反之經濟蕭條時,再分配政策產生的負面效果較為明顯。另一方面,本文以動態追蹤資料分量迴歸分法分析民主政治對經濟波動的影響,
分析全世界82國在1960-2008年的追蹤資料,發現民主在經濟波動越劇烈時,穩定經濟的效果愈強且顯著,
而在經濟穩定時,則為不顯著的正向影響。實證結果支持Rodrik (1999a,2000b)的理論,在經濟波動越劇烈的國家,
民主政治越能透過政治和解來穩定經濟波動。

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