| 研究生: |
黃崇岳 Huang, Chong-Yue |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
能源市場衝擊與穩定政策效果之評估 The evaluation of the effects of the stabilization policy for energy market shocks |
| 指導教授: |
賴廷緯
Lai, Ting-Wei |
| 口試委員: |
陳冠任
Chen, Guan-Ren 朱琇妍 Chu, Shiou-Yen |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2020 |
| 畢業學年度: | 109 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 44 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 動態隨機一般均衡模型 、能源市場衝擊 、泰勒法則 、麥卡勒姆法則 、穩定政策 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | DSGE model, energy market shocks, Taylor’s rule, McCallum’s rule, stabilization policy |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202001742 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:156 下載:51 |
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本文透過建立一個新興凱因斯的動態隨機一般均衡模型,用以分析能源市場發生變化時,中央銀行採取穩定政策平穩經濟的效果。本文發現,若衝擊來自能源市場需求面,即要素生產力衝擊,則泰勒法則較麥卡勒姆法則具有穩定經濟的作用;若衝擊來自能源市場供給面,則泰勒法則在穩定通貨膨脹方面較為有效,而麥卡勒姆法則在穩定產出缺口方面較為有效。此外,本文亦發現依循麥卡勒姆法則制定的貨幣政策,對刺激家計單位的勞動供給以及經濟體系的均衡產出亦較為有效。
We analyze the effects of the stabilization policy for energy market shocks using a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In the case of the total factor productivity shock, which is the energy demand shock, the policy that follows Taylor’s rule is more useful than the policy that follows McCallum’s rule for stabilizing the economy. In the case of the energy supply shock, Taylor’s rule is useful for stabilizing inflation, while McCallum’s rule is useful for stabilizing output gap. Moreover, we find that McCallum’s rule drives the labor supply of the household more obviously than Taylor's rule, and thus, McCallum’s rule is more useful for driving the output.
表次 5
圖次 6
第一章:前言 7
第二章:文獻回顧 9
第三章:資料與景氣波動的特徵 11
第四章:理論模型 13
第一節:最終財廠商決策問題 13
第二節:中間財廠商決策問題 14
第三節:勞動仲介廠商決策問題 17
第四節:家計單位的決策問題 18
第五節:中央銀行施政法則 23
第六節:外生衝擊與全面均衡 23
第五章:參數校準 27
第六章:外生衝擊的效果分析 31
第一節:要素生產力衝擊的均衡分析 31
第二節:能源供給衝擊的效果分析 34
第三節:小結 37
第七章:結論 38
參考文獻 40
附錄 44
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