在地緣政治壓力上升的背景下，中加經貿關係為何往往表現為持續、重組與階段性再校準，而非線性走向全面經濟斷裂。基於新古典現實主義的邏輯，本文主張系統性壓力並不直接決定經貿結果，而是經由中國領導層的評估與優先順序排序加以仲介，並具體塑造對加拿大國家經濟方略的政策形式（Form）、時序（Timing）與範圍（Scope）。全文的核心論點是「領導層主導的可控範圍內漸進微調」：本文所稱「可控範圍內的漸進微調」，係指在可控的政策範圍內，透過選擇性、可逆且分階段的工具組合，對對外經濟回應進行持續的細微調整。領導層並非在「脫鉤/不脫鉤」的二元框架中機械選擇，而是將政策結果約束在「完全脫鉤—完全自由流通」兩端之間的政策容許區間內，通過選擇性、可調整的工具組合，在安全訴求、經濟穩定與收益保留之間進行權衡。為了使此一機制具備跨事件的可檢驗性，本文進一步引入兩個條件變項：領導層安全優先/安全化權重（security prioritization）與部門可替代性（sectoral substitutability），並以一個 2×2 結果矩陣概括其交互作用與對政策工具（形式）、時序（時間）與範圍（部門/議題範圍）的可觀測預期。方法上，本文採用質化過程追蹤與系統性政策文本分析，重建關鍵緊張事件中的決策邏輯，並識別可觀測重要的政策。經驗分析圍繞四個命題展開，分別連接領導層排序與政策設計、分階段實施與時間管理、執行層的「執行—轉化」機制，以及可控範圍與條件性可逆性。本文進一步強調「可控範圍約束下的動態性」：由於領導層優先順序排序會隨外部與內部條件變化而重排，中加經貿關係在同一可接受區間內呈現階段性收緊、放寬與部分回撤的動態軌跡。 經驗上，本文所考察的事件一致地落在「高安全優先／低可替代性」（Type II）的配置：地緣政治收緊提高安全考量，但高擾動成本與利益保留誘因促使政策呈現選擇性、分階段、且具有條件性可逆的漸進微調，而非全面且不可逆的經濟斷裂。

This paper explains why China–Canada economic and trading relations persist yet are selectively tightened and partially recalibrated under geopolitical pressure rather than moving linearly toward comprehensive rupture, from the Chinese perspectives. Drawing on neoclassical realism, it argues that systemic constraints are filtered through leadership assessment and policy‑priority ordering, which then shape the form, timing, and sectoral scope of China’s economic statecraft toward Canada. The core mechanism is leadership‑mediated bounded calibration: instead of a binary “decoupling versus non‑decoupling” trajectory, Beijing deploys selective and adjustable instruments—often procedurally mediated, non‑tariff measures—sequenced in phases and framed to preserve room for conditional reversal. To make cross‑episode expectations explicit, the analysis introduces two conditioning variables, security prioritization and sectoral substitutability, summarized in a 2×2 analytical matrix of expected response configurations. Methodologically, the study uses qualitative process tracing and systematic policy‑text analysis across major episodes of bilateral tension and tests four propositions concerning (1) leadership cognition and priority ordering, (2) time management through phased implementation, (3) an execution–transformation layer shaped by administrative routines, accountability risks, and coordination costs, and (4) bounded calibration and conditional reversibility as a signaling and feasible rollback strategy. The evidence most consistently aligns with the high‑security‑salience/low‑substitutability configuration (Type II): heightened security concerns coexist with high disruption costs, encouraging targeted, phased, and conditionally reversible measures rather than comprehensive economic rupture. The thesis contributes a mechanism‑centered account that prioritizes instrument choice, sequencing, sectoral targeting, and reversibility conditions over endpoint prediction.

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