| 研究生: |
葉憶婷 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
股市價量關係: 工具變數分量迴歸方法的應用 |
| 指導教授: | 管中閔 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2007 |
| 畢業學年度: | 95 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 60 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 價量關係 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:238 下載:0 |
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本文經由模擬比較Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005)所提出的工具
變數分量迴歸方法與傳統分量迴歸方法在不同的內生性情況下, 其估
計偏誤的特性。另一方面,也藉由工具變數分量迴歸方法分析台灣、新
加坡、南韓與香港股市報酬率與成交量間的關係。以工具變數分量迴
歸方法分析價量關係不僅能完整描繪條件於成交量下報酬率的分配,
亦能修正以傳統分量迴歸方法估計同期價量關係所造成估計結果不具
一致性的問題。本文實証結果顯示台灣、新加坡、南韓與香港的正報
酬率與成交量有正向關係; 負報酬率與成交量多有負向關係。且正報
酬率與成交量的相依程度隨著分量的增加而逐漸增加, 而負報酬率與
成交量的相依程度則隨著分量的減少而逐漸增加。
1 前言1
2 文獻回顧3
2.1 價量關係. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2 理論模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.3 分量迴歸模型與估計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.4 分量迴歸大樣本性質. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.5 變異數矩陣之估計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3 工具變數分量迴歸模型12
3.1 工具變數分量迴歸模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.2 工具變數分量迴歸的大樣本性質. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4 模擬19
4.1 模擬設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.2 模擬結果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
5 實證分析23
5.1 資料描述與處理. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.2 實證模型與工具變數的挑選. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
5.3 實證結果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
6 結論
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