面對臺灣生育率屢創新低的人口結構危機，2023年總生育率已跌至歷史新低的0.87。過去的文獻多聚焦於高房價、教育負擔及女性雙重束縛等傳統社經因素。目前國際流行病學與生殖醫學證實，空氣汙染暴露會誘發體內氧化壓力與發炎反應，微觀上損害生殖機能，宏觀上亦會觸發不安全感而弱化生育意願。本研究旨在填補此一文獻缺口，系統性探討空氣汙染對臺灣各縣市層級總生育率的實質衝擊與空間溢出效應。
在實證策略上，本研究考量各縣市間人口流動與政策示範的空間相依性，以2013至2024年臺灣20個縣市的追蹤資料為基礎，導入「空間自我迴歸固定效果模型」。為精確剝離環境毒害的真實力道並釐清汙染源的粒徑差異，本研究建構涵蓋細懸浮微粒與較大粒徑懸浮微粒的四組混合時效與遞延對照模型，並針對極端政策干擾（如特定縣市高額生育津貼引發之戶籍機械性遷徙）設立虛擬變數以進行嚴謹的穩健性檢定。
結果揭示四大核心發現：首先，細懸浮微粒對生育率具顯著且穩健的直接負向打擊，較大懸浮微粒則不顯著，印證了微觀生理毒性在總體數據上的分異特質，證實空汙為壓抑生育的隱形殺手。其次，空間自我迴歸模型係數為正，確認生育行為具跨區「社會傳染」的空間外溢特質。第三，結婚率展現最強正向影響，反映東亞「婚育包裹」文化。第四，女性高教與僵化職場形塑雙重束縛。建議應將空汙防制納入人口政策，推動跨域治理以達雙贏。

Facing Taiwan’s demographic crisis with the total fertility rate(TFR) plummeting to a historic low of 0.87 in 2023, previous literature has largely focused on socioeconomic factors like housing prices and education costs. However, recent epidemiological studies demonstrate that air pollution exposure induces oxidative stress and inflammation, microscopically impairing reproductive functions and macroscopically weakening fertility intentions. This empirical study aims to effectively fill this literature gap by investigating the substantial impact and spatial spillover effects of air pollution on TFR across Taiwanese counties.
Methodologically, accounting for spatial dependence, this study utilizes panel data from 20 Taiwanese counties from 2013 to 2024 to comprehensively apply a Spatial Autoregressive Fixed Effects(SAR-FE)model. To accurately isolate environmental toxicity and identify pollutant particle size differences, four comparative models incorporating fine (PM2.5)and coarse(PM10)particulate matter are constructed. Furthermore, rigorous robustness checks are conducted to control for extreme policy interventions, such as welfare-induced migrations triggered by regional baby bonuses.
Empirical results reveal four core findings: First, PM2.5 exhibits a significant and robust direct negative impact on TFR, whereas PM10 is insignificant. This crucially demonstrates how micro-level toxicological damages manifest in macro-level empirical data, verifying PM2.5 as an invisible killer suppressing fertility. Second, the significantly positive spatial autoregressive coefficient confirms that fertility behaviors possess cross-regional "social contagion" and spatial spillover characteristics. Third, the crude marriage rate demonstrates the strongest positive influence, reflecting the unique East Asian "marriage package" culture. Fourth, female higher education and rigid industrial workplaces form a structural double bind. Policymakers should incorporate air quality control into national population policies and promote cross-regional governance to achieve environmental and demographic sustainability.

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