過去十年間，中國發展迅速。但是最近兩年一些問題漸漸浮現，中國似乎再也無法維持兩位數的GDP增長率。為了解決這些問題，中國目前推出全面性改革。其中金融改革備受矚目，有望推進中國的經濟轉型。由於一個國家的金融體系和經濟密不可分，分析中國的金融體系有主於理解中國經濟目前面臨的困境與挑戰。本個案試圖從中國的利率和匯率改革研究中國經濟的未來走勢。本個案首先從在2013年發生的兩次錢荒談起，分析錢荒相關的各個經濟部門；隨後闡述中國政府要推進的利率改革與匯率改革相關的政策；最後本個案研究了這些政策可能對經濟各部門產生的影響和中國未來可能的經濟走向。

In the last ten years, China has been developing with a rapid speed. But problems have gradually emerged in these two years. It seems that China can no longer sustain its two-digit GDP growth rate and have severe potential problems. To solve these problems, the Chinese government is now implementing an all round reform including a financial one, which is a crucial step to transform its economy to a more balanced and sustainable one. The finance sector of a nation is often closely related to the performance of its economy. Analyzing the current status of the financial sector in China could be a way to understand the difficult position China’s economy is facing. The case tries to analyze the future status of China’s economy through researching on the interest rate reform and exchange rate reform in China. The case first introduces the two money crunches happened in 2013 and then analyzes the possible reasons of the crunches and major parties involved. Then the case demonstrates the major policies implemented and to be implemented by Chinese government concerning the liberalization of interest rate and exchange rate. Finally, the case researches on possible influences of these policies on the parties involved and gives an expectation on China’s future economy in view of current progress made.

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