| 研究生: |
張玲玲 Chang Ling-Ling |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
文在寅政府新南方政策:地緣政治與地緣經濟視角 Moon Jae-in’s New Southern Policy: A Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Perspective |
| 指導教授: |
李明
Lee, Ming |
| 口試委員: |
劉德海
Liou, To-Hai 張少文 Chang, Shao-Wen 河凡植 Ha, Bum-Sig 吳崇涵 Wu, Chong-Han |
| 學位類別: |
博士
Doctor |
| 系所名稱: |
國際事務學院 - 東亞研究所 Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies |
| 論文出版年: | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 232 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 地緣政治 、地緣經濟 、文在寅政府 、南韓外交戰略 、新南方政策 、平衡外交 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | geopolitics, geoeconomics, Moon Jae-in administration, Korea’s Diplomatic Strategy, New Southern Policy, balancing diplomacy |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:29 下載:6 |
| 分享至: |
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本文以文在寅政府推行的「新南方政策」為例,從地緣政治與地緣經濟的雙重視角出發,探討中型國家南韓在美中戰略競逐格局下的外交策略選擇與調適。研究採用層次分析與戰略三角理論為主要分析途徑,結合文獻分析、比較研究與個案研究方法,檢視南韓在東協與印度推展新南方政策的動因、過程與成效。本文提出三項假設,分別針對美中與新南方國家合作緊密度、競爭強度,以及南韓國內民意對中國的態度,以檢驗其對政策推展的影響。
研究結果顯示,在東協地區,美中呈現高度競爭(Ct約0.97‐1.0)且影響力近乎均勢,形成對南韓不小的安全與政治壓力;而在印度,雙方競爭強度轉為中度競逐(Ct約0.47‐0.56),美國主導性上升,反而為南韓創造更多政策推動空間。整體而言,合作緊密度的提升為南韓提供外部契機,但競爭強度的升高則壓縮政策的戰略迴旋。
在國內層次方面,南韓社會的反中情緒升高,使新南方政策在話語與安全議題上傾向與美國連動;然而,經貿上對中國的高度依賴限制了政策脫鉤的可能性,呈現出「有限連動」的結構。個人層次上,文在寅以務實與平衡為核心的外交風格,透過「人民、和平、繁榮」(3P)三大願景的外交論述延續「戰略模糊」,以在結構性壓力下維持有限自主的外交空間。
綜上,「新南方政策」展現出地緣政治的制約性與地緣經濟的機會性並存的特徵,凸顯中型國家在強權競逐環境中以「避險」與「平衡外交」維繫戰略空間的努力。研究結果說明,南韓的外交行為並非單一理性選擇,而是國際結構壓力、國內政治互動與領導人決策風格交互作用的結果,反映出地緣政治與地緣經濟在中型國家外交行為中動態並存與相互牽制的關係。
This study takes South Korea’s New Southern Policy under the Moon Jae-in administration as a core case to examine how a middle power navigates its diplomatic strategies and adjustments amid the U.S.–China strategic rivalry, through a dual perspective of geopolitics and geoeconomics. Employing layered analysis and the strategic triangle theory as the main analytical approaches, and combining documentary analysis, comparative research, and case study methods, this research investigates the motivations, processes, and outcomes of South Korea’s NSP toward ASEAN and India. Three hypotheses are proposed, focusing on the degree of U.S.–China cooperation and competition with the NSP partner countries and South Korean public attitudes toward China, to test their effects on policy implementation.
The findings indicate that in ASEAN, the U.S. and China are engaged in high-intensity competition (Ct ≈ 0.97–1.0) with nearly balanced influence, creating considerable political and security pressure on Seoul. In India, by contrast, the competition has shifted to a moderate level (Ct ≈ 0.47–0.56), with the U.S. gaining relative dominance, thereby providing South Korea with greater policy maneuverability. Overall, while stronger cooperation between the two powers offers external opportunities, heightened competition compresses South Korea’s strategic flexibility.
At the domestic level, rising anti-China sentiment in South Korean society has made the NSP’s rhetoric and security cooperation more closely aligned with the United States. However, South Korea’s deep economic dependence on China constrains its ability to decouple, resulting in a pattern of limited alignment. At the individual level, President Moon Jae-in’s pragmatic and balanced diplomatic style—embodied in the “People, Peace, and Prosperity” vision—maintained a degree of strategic ambiguity to preserve limited autonomy under structural pressure.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與問題 1
第二節 研究途徑與方法 4
第三節 文獻回顧與理論對話 12
第四節 研究範圍與限制 32
第五節 研究設計與架構、章節安排 34
第二章 南韓的地緣環境與戰略 41
第一節 南韓的地緣環境與戰略 41
第二節 文在寅政府之戰略布局 52
第三節 新南方國家對南韓的戰略意涵 58
第四節 小結 75
第三章 美中與東協、印度關係緊密度 77
第一節 美中的東協政策 77
第二節 美中的印度政策 83
第三節 美中與東協、印度的關係緊密度 89
第四節 小結 127
第四章 美中競逐與新南方國家、南韓的戰略互動 129
第一節 美中在新南方國家的競逐程度 129
第二節 東協國家、印度的立場 134
第三節 南韓的戰略連動 137
第四節 小結 142
第五章 影響新南方政策推展的關鍵地緣因素 145
第一節 新南方政策推展的成果評估 145
第二節 假設檢驗 159
第三節 關鍵地緣因素分析 167
第四節 小結 171
第六章 結論 175
參考文獻 181
中文部分 181
英文部分 200
韓文部分 219
中文部分
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網際網路
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BBC NEWS 中文,2021/2/23。〈中印關係:邊界衝突無礙生意往來 中國再次成為印度頭號貿易伙伴〉,《BBC NEWS 中文》,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-56168906>。
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中華人民共和國商務部,〈中國-東盟自由貿易區(含“10+1”升級)〉(協定文本),中國自由貿易區服務網,<http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/china_dongmeng_upgrade/dongmeng_special.shtml>。
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英文部分
專書
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專書論文
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期刊論文
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官方公告、文件
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박성준. 왕윤종, 연원호 등, 2021. 미중 기술패권경쟁과 한국경제, 서울: 국회미래연구원.
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배긍찬. 2016. 2016년 ASEAN 관련 정상회의 결과분석: ASEAN, ASEAN+3, EAS를 중심으로, 서울: 국립외교원 외교안보연구소.
배긍찬. 2021. ASEAN 연구기행, 서울: 국립외교원 외교안보연구소.
신남방정책특별위원회. 2021. 2021 신남방지역 경제무역투자 통계집, 서울: 신남방정책특별위원회.
신남방정책특별위원회. 2021. 신남방정책 플러스-“마음이 함께 뜁니다”, 서울: 신남방정책특별위원회.
아산정책연구원. 2022. 2023 아산국제정세전망: 복합경쟁, 서울: 아산정책연구원.
여인곤, 김국신, 전병곤, 배긍찬, 이원덕 & 이재현. 2023. 새 정부의 경제 및 대북 정책 기대효과, 서울: 현대경제연구원.
여인곤, 김국신, 전병곤, 배긍찬, 이원덕 & 이재현. 2023. 새 정부의 경제 및 대북 정책 기대효과, 서울: 현대경제연구원.
유재광 편. 2019. 국제전략 연구- 안보·경제·문화전략을 중심으로, 서울: 국회미래연구원.
윤영관. 2016. 외교의 시대: 한반도의 길을 묻다, 서울: 미지북스.
이기태, 배정호. 2019. 국제전략환경의 변화와 한국의 신남방정책, 서울: 통일연구원.
이신화, 이용욱. 2020. 미·중 전략경쟁의 미래와 한국의 경제·외교적 대응. 서울: 국민경제자문회의지원단.
이지혁. 2021. 신남방정책 플러스를 통한 한-아세안 협력방안 모색, 서울: 한국수출입은행해외경제연구소.
장현철. 2021. 대아세안 공공외교 추진 전략, 서울: 국립외교원.
전봉근. 2021. 동북아 지정학과 한국 외교전략: 강중국과 중추국 정체성을 중심으로. 서울: 국립외교원 외교안보연구소.
정형곤. 2024. 한국 반도체 산업의 수출입 구조 및 글로벌 위상 분석. 서울: 오늘의 세계경제.
조원득. 2021. 미중 경쟁 구도 하 인도 외교정책의 변화 양상과 신남방정책, 서울: 국립외교원 외교안보연구소.
조한범, 권재범, 박지원, 이재현, 이현태, 최윤정, 황재호. 2021. 신남방정책・신북방정책 근미래전략과 주요사업추진방안. 서울: 통일연구원.
조흥국, 윤진표, 이한우, 최경희, 김동엽. 1999. 동남아시아의 최근 정치·외교에 대한 전략적 평가: 태국, 베트남, 인도네시아, 필리핀을 중심으로, 서울: 대외경제정책연구원.
주재우, 이신화. 2021. 미·중 다자주의 경쟁과 한국의 중견국 외교전략 한반도 평화정착을 위한 제언, 서울: 한국유엔체제학회.
채재병, 김일기, 김상규 & 이상현. 2019. 주변국의 사이버환경과 한반도평화체제구축. 서울: 통일연구원.
최원기. 2021. 신남방정책 4년 평가 : 외교적 성과와 향후 과제. 서울: 국립외교원 외교안보연구소.
최인아, 곽성일, 정재완 등. 2020. 인도태평양 전략과 신남방정책의 협력 방향, 서울: 대외경제정책연구원.
최인아, 이재호, 김소은, 최경희. 2022. 한-인도네시아 포괄적 미래 협력 방안 연구, 서울: 대외경제정책연구원.
최인아主編. 김정곤, 정재완, 이재호 등, 2022. ISSUE 20 NRC POLICY BRIEF:김소은글로벌 불확실성의 시대, 신남방정책 어떻게 달라져야 하는가?, 서울: 세종경제·인문사회연구회.
최진우, 김새미, 김지윤, 모춘흥, 서지원, 진달용& 한준성. 2021. 아세안 지역 한류콘텐츠 활성화 방안, 서울: 대외경제정책연구원.
통일연구원국제전략연구실. 2015. 제7차 KINU 통일포럼: 동북아 국제질서 전환기 한국의 전략적 딜레마와 통일·외교정책 방향. 서울:통일연구원국제전략연구실.
한국정당학회. 2017. 제19대 대통령선거 후보자토론회 토론의제개발. 서울: 한국정당학회.
현대경제연구원. 2023. 새 정부의 경제 및 대북 정책 기대효과, 서울: 현대경제연구원.
황병덕·박영호·임강택 등. 2013. 한반도 통일공공외교 추진전략(Ⅱ): 한국의 주변4국 통일공공외교의 실태 연구(총괄보고서). 서울: 통일연구원.
專書論文
김기정. 2021. “외교 유연성의 시대적 의미와 의의,” 김기정 김정섭 남궁곤등, 미중 경쟁과 한국의 외교 유연성, 서울: 국가안보전략연구원.
김상기&이동률&이혜정&이기태&이우태. 2017. “결론: 한국의 대응.” 김상기 외, 트럼프 행정부 출범 이후 동아시아 전략환경 변화와 한국의 대응. 서울: 통일연구원.
김창희. 2018. “한반도 비핵화와 남북관계의 쟁점과 과제.” 한반도 비핵화와 미국 및 중국의 역할, 그리고 남북관계, 서울: 국회입법조사처 외교안보팀.
김흥규, 이왕휘, 이승주, 조양현, 이창주, 이상현, 정재흥, 부형욱, & 차두현. 2021. 미국 바이든 행정부 시대 미중 전략경쟁과 한국의 선택 연구. , 서울: 세종연구소
期刊論文
구본학. 2015/12. “한·미동맹과 한·중 전략적 동반자관계의 조화.” 新亞細亞(New Asia), 제22권 제4호 통권85호, pp.135-161.
구본학. 2015/12. “한·미동맹과 한·중 전략적 동반자관계의 조화.” 신아시아연구소, 제22권 제4호 통권85호, pp.135-161.
권기영. 2017/8. “'한한령(限韓令)'을 통해 본 중국 대외문화정책의 딜레마.” 중국문화연구, Vol. 37, No. 37, pp. 29-54.
김동엽. 2023/10. “소다자주의(minilateralism)가 아세안중심성 (ASEAN Centrality)에 미치는 영향: 한국의 대 아세안 협력 전략에 관한 시사점을 중심으로.” 동남아시아연구, 33권3호, pp. 1-33.
남광규. 2022/8. “'동북아의 지정학적 성격과 한국외교 방향의 모색.” 한반도미래연구, 제7호, pp. 69-96.
남대엽. 2020/5. “한국의 대중국 해외직접투자가 수출에 미치는 영향: 제조업과 중간재를 중심으로.” 중소연구, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 141-167.
루이 아르작. 2014. “한국의 지정학, ‘영향력 외교’로 나아가는 길.” 영토해양연구, 2014, 8권, pp.108-136.
박영준. 2015/봄. “새로운 아태지역 지정학 구도와 한미일 해양협력 과제.” Strategy 21, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 94-120.
박용수. 2020/3. “미중 패권경쟁과 문재인 정부의 대응전략.” 한국동북아논총. Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 5-27.
박정준. 2018/5. “미국 vs 중국 무역 전쟁의 본질과 한국 : G2의 무역갈등과 한국에 미치는 영향.” 함께하는 FTA. vol. 72, pp.6-9.
배기찬. 2019/10. “인도·태평양, 일대일로 그리고 한국의 신남방정책.” 열린정책, 통권 제4호, pp. 132-141.
신욱희. 2021/가을. “지경학의 시대: 주체/구조와 안보/경제의 수평적 상호작용.” 한국과 국제정치, 제37권 제3호 2021년(가을) 통권 114호, pp.35-36.
양운철. 2020/12. “미국과 중국의 갈등 심화와 한국의 포지셔닝(positioning).” 세종논평, No. 2020-34.
이문기. 2017/1. “미중관계의 변화와 균형외교전략의 모색.” 현대전국연구. 제18집2호, pp.18-26. <https://docviewer.nanet.go.kr/reader/viewer>.
이상환 2017/2. “북한 핵무기 개발과 한국의 외교전략 : 미국 신행정부의 대외정책에 대한 대응을 중심으로.” 정치정보연구. 제20권제1호(통권 제42호), pp.121-141.
이승욱. 2018/. “접경지역의 도시지정학: 경기도 파주시 대북전단살포 갈등을 사례로.”
이승현. 2018/1. “문재인 정부의 대북정책 : 다섯 가지 핵심어를 중심으로.” 의정논총. 13권, 1호, pp.163-186.
이재현, 강충구. 2020/2. “아세안과 신남방정책에 대한 한국인의 인식: 정치성향과 세대의 간극.” ISSUE BRIEF(The Asan Institute for Policy Studies), 2020-03, pp.1-16. <https://www.asaninst.org/contents/%EC%95%84%EC%84% B8%EC%95%88%EA%B3%BC-%EC%8B%A0%EB%82%A8%EB%B0%A9% EC%A0%95%EC%B1%85%EC%97%90-%EB%8C%80%ED%95%9C-%ED% 95%9C%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%B8%EC%9D%98-%EC%9D%B8%EC%8B %9D-%EC%A0%95%EC%B9%98%EC%84%B1/>.
이재현. 2022/10. “아세안 중심성에 대한 이해와 한국의 전략.” ISSUE BRIEF(The Asan Institute for Policy Studies), 2022-26, pp.1-13.
이재현. 2022/2. “신남방정책을 기반으로 한 한국형 인태전략 제안.” ISSUE BRIEF(The Asan Institute for Policy Studies), 2022-7, pp.1-14.
정성장. 2017/6. “문재인정부의 북핵 및 대북정책 방향,” 세종정책브리핑, No.2017-11, pp. 1-20.
정해식 & 임달호. 2018/5 “임달호글로벌 ICT 산업의 수출 경쟁우위 패턴변화에 관한 연구 :한국과 중국 및 일본을 중심으로.” 한일경상논집, Vol. 79, No. 0, pp. 67-91.
조성렬. 2017. “문재인 정부 대북정책의 과제와 전망: 한반도 비핵화와 평화체제의 비전을 중심으로.” 한국통일정책연구논총. 26권, 1호, pp. 1-28.
주봉호. 2014. “제2장 한반도 분단의 대내외적 원인에 관한 연구.” 통일전략, 2014, vol.14, no.1, pp. 47-97.
주재우. 2020/3. “한미 안보협력과 한중 경제협력: 중국의 패권도전에 대한 소고.” 한국국가전략, 통권제12호, pp.119-163.
최영종. 2019. “인도태평양 시대 한국의 ‘신남방정책’과 새로운 지역주의 전략의 모색. ” 동북아연구, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 5-35.
최윤정. 2018/12. “2018년 인도 정세와 한국-인도 관계 평가 및 2019년 전망.” 정세와 정책, 2018년제22호. pp. 1-5.
최인아, 2022. “글로벌 불확실성의 시대, 신남방정책 어떻게 달라져야 하는가?” NRC Policy Brief, 2022 ISSUE 20, pp. 1-12.
최재덕. 2020/6. “한·미동맹과 한·중 전략적 동반자관계의 조화.” 슬라브학보, 제30권 제2호, pp.173-204.
최천운, 이상만. 2021/11. “미·중 간 전략적 경쟁시기 한국의 대외협력정책에 관한 연구-경쟁과 협력의 지경학적 관점을 중심으로.” 중소연구, 제45권 제3호, pp.147-181.
研討會論文
김경일. 2018/12/17. “한반도 평화체제구축과 지경학 시대의 도래.” 2019 한반도의 그림: 지경학 시대의 도래와 한반도 평화체제, 서울: 통일연구원. pp. 13-24.
최원기. 2019/5/8. “신남방정책 성과와 향후 외교적 과제.” 신남방·신북방정책과 문재인 정부의 외교전략, 서울: 국립외교원. pp. 11-19.
網際網路
KOTRA. 2017/2/9. “[KOTRA 보고서]수출확대를 위한 국가별 경제협력방안 수립:중국.” 한중콘테츠연구소, <https://blog.naver.com/china-contents-lab/220930973144>.
MBC. 1988/2/25. “제13대 노태우 대통령 취임식, 6공화국 출범.” MBC 뉴스, <https://imnews.imbc.com/replay/1988/nwdesk/article/1806771_29513.html>.
Moon's chronicler™. 2021. “문재인정부 국정백서.” 문재인정부 디지털 기록관. <http://presidentmoon.org/wpp/view?id=WPM0207102>.
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研究/工作報告
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