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研究生: 孫嘉傑
Sun, Chia-Chieh
論文名稱: 南海爭端中的美國因素研究:2009-2021
指導教授: 劉復國
Liu, Fu-Kuo
口試委員: 盧業中
Lu, Yeh-chung
胡瑞舟
Hu, Jui-Chou
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 國際事務學院 - 外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
Master's Program in Strategic and International Affairs
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 244
中文關鍵詞: 南海美中關係亞太再平衡印太戰略航行自由行動
外文關鍵詞: South China Sea, US-China relations, Asia-Pacific Rebalancing, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Freedom of Navigation
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202200234
相關次數: 點閱:66下載:0
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  • 南海是全球衝突熱點,也是亞太區域最難以解決的爭端之一,主要是涉及領土主權爭端、能源競爭、海域權利主張重疊、交通航線及地理戰略位置重要性等多項因素,美國雖然不是南海領土主權聲索國家,但卻扮演最主要且關鍵角色。
    歐巴馬以「亞太再平衡」戰略作為維繫全球領導地位的工具與方法,確認21世紀美國的霸權繫於南海之政策方向,為美國外交戰略之一大轉變,川普執政後,片面退出跨太平洋夥伴協定,改與各國重新簽訂雙邊貿易協定,以「印太戰略」取代歐巴馬「亞太再平衡」戰略,美國的戰略傾斜加劇了南海聲索國間的劍拔弩張,中國崛起的力量也對美國霸權地位形成挑戰。美國除拉攏南海周邊相關聲索國家共同牽制中國,域外國家的參與也促使中國加深危機感,使其加速在南海的開發及控制,以及軍事現代化,讓南海的地緣政治難題更加難以解決。
    當前南海局勢緊張局勢雖因各國忙於對付新冠疫情與專注提振國內經濟而稍有緩和,然而各種挑戰和不確定性仍然存在,中美間可針對彼此的利益契合點加強推進合作,以減少未來兩國在南海可能之爭端。


    The South China Sea is a hotspot of global conflict and one of the most difficult disputes to resolve in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly involving territorial sovereignty disputes, energy competition, overlapping maritime claims, sea lines of communication, and the importance of geostrategy. Although the United States is not one of the claimant countries over the South China Sea, it plays a significant and key role in the region.
    The Obama administration maintained its global leadership with the “Asia-Pacific Rebalancing” strategy to ensure that the hegemony of the United States in the 21st century is relevant to its policy of the South China Sea, which is one of the major changes in the United States’ diplomatic strategy. After President Trump took power, he unilaterally withdrew the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and decided to only negotiate trade deals with individual allies, and replaced the “Asia-Pacific Rebalancing” strategy with the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. The strategic tilt of the United States has intensified the tension in the South China Sea. The rising China also challenges the position of the United States. In addition to American effort of forging an alliance around the South China Sea to contain China, the external involvement has also prompted China to deepen its sense of crisis, and accelerate its development and control in the South China Sea as well as its military modernization. As a result, it has made the geopolitical challenge in the South China Sea more difficult to solve.
    Although the tension in the South China Sea has eased slightly as countries are busy dealing with the COVID-19 and focusing on boosting domestic economies, many challenges and uncertainties still lie ahead. The United States and China might consider strengthen cooperation as a way to prevent from conflicts in the interests of both countries.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究動機與目的 1
    第二節 文獻回顧與探討 10
    第三節 研究方法 21
    第四節 研究範圍與限制 23
    第五節 章節安排 24
    第二章 南海戰略環境變遷 25
    第一節 南海歷史與地理戰略價值 25
    第二節 南海戰略因素變遷原因 33
    第三節 美國重返亞太戰略之影響 39
    第四節 小結 44
    第三章 歐巴馬與川普政府的南海戰略 47
    第一節 歐巴馬政府時期南海戰略作為 48
    第二節 川普政府時期南海戰略作為 57
    第三節 歐巴馬與川普政府南海「航行自由行動」比較分析 66
    第四節 小結 78
    第四章 美國南海政策作為之影響 85
    第一節 美國因素造成南海周邊情勢之變化 86
    第二節 中國對美國南海政策之因應 93
    第三節 相關國家對美國南海政策之因應 106
    第四節 小結 119
    第五章 南海爭端未來發展走向 125
    第一節 南海仲裁之影響 126
    第二節 南海周邊國家未來可能行動 132
    第三節 美中南海角力前景展望 155
    第四節 小結 167
    第六章 結論 171
    第一節 研究發現 172
    第二節 後續研究建議 184
    參考文獻 187
    附錄一 歐巴馬政府時期南海地區主要海事紛爭概覽 239
    附錄二 川普政府時期南海地區主要海事紛爭概覽 241

    中文部分
    書籍:
    中國南海研究院,《美國在亞太地區的軍力報告2016》,北京,時事出版社,2016年。
    沈明室、劉蕭翔主編,《2021年印太區域安全情勢評估報告》,臺北市:財團法人國防安全研究院,2021年。
    李哲全、王尊彥主編,《2019年印太區域安全情勢評估報告》,臺北市:財團法人國防安全研究院,2019年。
    宋燕輝,《美國與南海爭端》,臺北市:元照出版有限公司,2016年。
    吳士存,《南沙爭端的起源與發展》,北京:中國經濟出版社,2010年。
    劉復國、甘逸驊主編,《南海仲裁案裁決後我國的因應之道》,臺北市:政治大學臺灣安全研究中心,2017年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2010年南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:政大國關中心,2011年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2011年南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:政大國關中心,2012年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2012年南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:政大國關中心,2013年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2013年度南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:國立政治大學安全研究中心,2014年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2014年度南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:國立政治大學安全研究中心,2015年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2015年度南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:國立政治大學安全研究中心,2016年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2016-2017年南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:國立政治大學安全研究中心,2017年。
    劉復國、吳士存主編,《2017-2018年度南海地區形勢評估報告》,臺北市:國立政治大學安全研究中心,2019年。
    蘇冠群,《中國的南海戰略》,臺北市:新銳文創,2013年。
    專書譯著:
    蕭雷.德瑞(Chollet Derek)著,林添貴譯,2017。美國該走的路(The Long Game: How Obama Defied Washington and Redefine America’s Role in the World)。臺北市:八旗文化。
    比爾.海頓(Hayton Bill)著,林添貴譯,2015年。南海:21世紀的亞洲火藥庫與中國稱霸的第一步?(The South China Sea- The Struggle for Power in Asia)。臺北市:麥田出版。
    約翰.米爾斯海默(Mearsheimer John)著,王義桅、唐小松譯,2014年。大國政治的悲劇(The Tragedy of Great Power Politics)。臺北市:麥田出版。
    約瑟夫.奈伊(Joseph S. Nye, Jr.)著,林添貴譯,2015。美國世紀的終結(Is The American Century Over?)。臺北市:麥田出版。
    期刊論文:
    王冠雄、歐陽子惇,〈論歐巴馬政府南海政策執行之變化─航行自由〉,《展望與探索》,第16卷第11期(107年11月),頁75-106。
    任遠喆,〈亞太再平衡視角下的美國南海戰略及其地區安全悖論〉,《南洋問題研究》,2016年8月第20161 期,頁13-23。
    宋燕輝,〈美國歐巴馬政府就南海問題所持態度與立場之研究〉,《中美關係專題研究:2009-2011》,2014年6月第13冊,頁49-78。
    吳士存、陳相秒,〈中美南海博弈:利益、衝突與動因—兼論破解南海『安全困局』之道〉,《亞太安全與海洋研究》,2019年4月,頁40-56。
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    林柏州,〈中國對台的灰色地帶威脅─威脅態樣與因應〉,《國防安全研究院國防情勢特刊,110年12月16日第15 期,頁1-11。
    林滿紅,〈亞太歷史、臺灣與南海――《中日和約》中的「南沙群島、西沙群島」〉,《中央研究院近代史研究所集刊》,2017年9月第97期,頁1-43。
    胡波,〈南海觀察─為何中美兩軍相遇規則不適用於海警〉,《世界知識》,2021年第11期,頁74。
    倪峰,〈美國重返亞洲及其評估〉,《美國戰略研究簡報》,2012年1月第1期,頁21-26。
    許然博,〈中共南海島礁建設 對我海軍軍事戰略之影響〉,《海軍學術雙月刊》,2017年4月第51卷第2期,頁6-26。
    姜民真,〈解析南海仲裁案後越南對華外交策略的調整〉,《邊界與海洋研究》,2017年9月第2卷第5期,頁100-111。
    張心怡,〈川普當選後的亞太區域安全情勢〉,《全球政治評論》,2017年1月第57期,頁13-17。
    張凱銘,〈美國與中國積極介入南海爭端之戰略動因思考〉,《全球政治評論》,2016年1月第53期,頁140-142。
    陳偉寬、劉先舉,〈從南海歷史與戰略價值探索中越未來發展〉,《海軍學術雙月刊》,2017年10月第51卷第5期,頁85-86。
    陳鴻瑜,〈中華民國政府繪製南海諸島範圍線之決策過程及其意涵〉,《國史館館刊》,2016年3月第47期,頁91-118。
    陳鴻瑜,〈舊金山和約下西沙和南沙群島之領土歸屬問題〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,2011年10月第12卷第4期,頁 1-26。
    曾偉峯,「近期澳洲與中國大陸關係評析」,展望與探索,第19卷第4期(2021年4月),頁33-40。
    劉鋒,〈南海油氣資源開發與合作〉,《新東方月刊》,2010年6月第177期,頁20~21。
    鄧中堅,〈美國在南海面對中國的理論與政策作為:國際政治與國際法的對話〉,《全球政治評論》,2018年第61 期,頁31-54。
    蔡季廷、陳偉華,〈中國對南海仲裁案法制化之回應〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,2017年1月第18卷第1期,頁 59-122。
    蔡明彥,〈中國在南海的強勢外交與美中戰略角力〉,《臺灣國際研究季刊》,2017年第13卷第1期,頁13-54。
    盧業中,〈拜登政府外交新政:大國政治的解析〉,《全球政治評論》,2021年7月第75期,頁7-12。
    鍾永和,〈中美南海策略之研究-以戰略利益析論〉,《海軍學術雙月刊》,2017年10月第51卷第5期,頁11~25。
    謝志淵,〈美國『印太戰略』的機遇與挑戰-兼論對臺灣影響〉,《海軍學術雙月刊》,2018年6月第52卷第3期,頁61-75。
    學位論文:
    黃奕玲,2011,《美國歐巴馬政府的南海政策2009─2012》,臺北市:東吳大學政治學系碩士論文。
    黃華璽,2014,《再平衡vs. 核心利益─美國重返亞洲對中國南海政策之影響》,臺北市:政治大學國際事務學院碩士論文。
    報紙:
    「美國對南海問題戰略考量的變遷」,《中國社會科學報》,2014年4月14日,第945期,(2018年10月31日檢索)
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