Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordan(1968) 建立了一條單一迴歸縮減式，以實證分析檢視究竟貨幣政策抑或財政政策對整個經濟活動的影響較顯著，較可靠且較

快速，結果顯示：貨幣政策連中三元，而財政政策則相形見絀。此一主題即刻引起包括Keynesian 學者在內的經濟學家廣泛地討論。財政政策或貨幣政策經濟效果之研究熱潮於焉展開。有的學者針對此一簡單的迴歸模型結構加以強化或予以重新設定，有的則針對變數的選擇提出不同的看法，也有從計量的技巧著手。

中華民國為一小型開放經濟，資源有限，益以外交方

面的孤立、阻絕，卻能屢創經濟奇蹟，除了人民的勤奮向上外，政府所扮演的角色亦功不可沒。然而政府在政策的運用上，究竟以何種政策較為有效?值得深入探討。

本文主要的特色是：以St. Louis Equation 為基礎，除了傳統的財政政策與貨幣政策以外，又加入與我國關係密切的貿易政策做為解釋變數。在方法上，每一個政策都有2~3個項目可供選擇(財政政策為政府總支出和政府消費性支出：貨幣政策為MlA，MIB 和M2 ;貿易政策為進出口淨額，進出口總額和出口總額)。接著，依據計量上的理論標準，諸如：外生性檢定與單根檢定以選取一最合適之變數。然後，根據Almon lag technique 以minimized residual sum of squares 為標準來決定最適的lag 與degree 。最後，檢定變異數不齊一的問題，如果此問題存在，將採加權最小平方法(WLS) 以消除之。所有資料來源除了政府總支出外，皆取自教育部工作站EPS 台灣地區國民所得統計資料庫的季資料。

根據本文的研究發現，貿易政策的係數最大且顯著，而財政政策與貨幣政策都不顯著，應證了以出口為導向的貿易政策是台灣經濟成長一項較為重要之因素。

一、 中文部分:

(一)林華德著，計量經濟學導論，台北:三民書局，民國七十七年十二月再版。
(二)吳榮義、王塗發及周添城，台灣貿易長期出超及其對策研究，台灣銀行季刊第三十九卷第三期，民國七十七年九月，頁38–51。
(三)徐偉初，華格納法則及貝克假設之實證檢定:台灣地區公共支出水準成長趨勢研究，國立政治大學學報第五十期，民國七十三年十二月，頁205-224 。
(四) ???，我國國民所得與公共支出:因果關係之實證檢定，國立政治大學學報第五十四期，民國七十五年十二月，頁65-86 。
(五)莊春發，貿易集中度、出口不穩定、經濟成長??台灣之研究，經濟研究第二十三期，民國七十年十二月，頁139-151。
(六)陳師孟著，總體經濟演義，台北:新陸書局，民國七十九年九月。
(七)郭崑謨、魏啟林，台灣貿易成長的經濟策略分析，台灣經濟金融月刊第二十四卷第十二期，民國七十七年十二月，頁25-34 。
(八)解立亞，貨幣政策的目標，台灣經濟金融月刊第二十三卷第九期，民國七十六年九月，頁2-5 。
(九)賴建誠，依賴經濟下的市場結構??以台灣為反例1952?1981 ，經濟研究第二十七期，民國七十六年一月，頁119-130 。

二、外文部份:

1. Andersen, Leonall C., and Keith M. Carlson, "A Monetarist Model for Economic Stabi1ization."Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, 52 (April 1970),7-25.
2. ???, and ???, " St. Louis Model Revisited ."International Economic Review, 15CJune 1974),305-327.
3. ???, and Jerry L. Jordan. "Monetary and Fiscal Actions: A Test of Their Relative Importance in Economic Stabilization." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, 50(Novernber 1968), 11-24.
4. Batten, Dallas S., and Daniel L. Thornton, "Polynominal Distributed Lags and the Estimation of the St. Louis Equation." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, 65: 4(April 1983),13-25.
5. Carlson, Keith M., "The St. Louis Equation and Monthly Data." .Federal ? Reserve Bank of St .Louis, Review, 57(January 1975),14-17.
6. ???, "Does the St. Louis Equation Now Believe in Fiscal Policy?" Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, 60(February 1978), 13-19.
7. ??? , "Money, Inflation, and Economic Growth:Some Updated Reduced Form Results and Their Implications."Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, 62(April 1980). 13-19.
8. ???, and Scott' E. Hein, "Monetary Aggregates as Monetary Indicators." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Review. 62 (November 1980). 12-21.
9 . ???, and ???. "Four Econometric Mode1s and Monetary Policy: The Long-Run View."Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Review, 65:1(January. 1983), 13-24.
10. Corrigan. E. Gerald. "The Measurement and Importance of Fiseal Policy Changes." Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Monthly Review (June 1970), 133-145.
11. Davis, G. Richard. "How Much Does Money Matter? A Look at Some Recent Evidence. " Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Monthly Review (June,1969), 119-131. ?
12. Deleeuw, Frank. and John Kalchbrenner, "Monetary and Fiscal Actions: A Test of Their Relative Importance in Economic Stabilization Comment." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,Review. 51 (April 1969),6-11.
13. Dickey, David A., William R. Bell, and Robert B. Miller, "Unit Roots in Time Series Models:Test and Implications." The American Statistician,40:1(February 1986), 12-26.
14. ??? , and Wayne A. Fuller, "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74:366(June 1979), 427-431.
15. Elliott, J.W., "The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Actions on Total Spending-The St. Louis Total Spending Equation Revisited." Journal of Money. Credit. and Banking, 7(May 1975),181-192.
16. Friedman. Benjamin M., "Even the St. Louis Model Now Believes in Fiscal Policy. " Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 9(May 1977),365-367.
17. Fuller, Wayne A., Introduction to Statistical Time Series, New York:John Wiley & Sons, 1976.
18. Goldfeld, Stephen M., and Richard E. Quandt,"Some Tests for Homoscedasticity." Journal of American Statistical Association, 60:310 (June 1965), 539-547.
19. Gordon, Robert J., "Notes on Money, Income, and Gramlich." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 3(May 1971),533-545.
20. Gramlich, Edwa rd M., "The Useful ness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy as Discretionary Stabilization Tools." Journal of Money, Credit,and Banking, 3(May 1971),506-532.
21. Granger, C. W. J., "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. " Econometrica, 37:3 (July 1969),424-438.
22. Hafer, R.W., "Selecting a Monetary Indicator:A Test of the New Monetary Aggregates." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, 63 (February 1981), 12-18.
23. ??? , "The Role of Fiscal Policy in the St.Louis Equation." Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, Review, 64 (January 1982), 17-22.
24. Johnston, J., Economic Methods, 3th ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc. Press,1984 .
25. Maddala, G.S ., Introduction to Econometrics,New York: Macmillan Publishing Company, Inc. Press, 1988.
26. Mehra, Yash P., and David E. Spencer, "The St.Louis Equation and Reserve Causation: The Evidence Reexamined." Southern Economic Journal 45:4 (April 1979), 1104-1120.
27. Meyer, Laurence H., and Chris Varvares, "A Comparison of the St. Louis Model and Two Variations:Predictive- Performance and Policy Implications."Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,Review, 63 (December 1981), 13-25.
28. Pagano. Marcello, and Michael J. Hartley, "On Fitting Distributed Lag Models Subject to Polynominal Restrictions." Journal of Econometrics.16 (June 1981), 171-198.
29. Pindyck, Robert S., and Daniel L. Rubinfeld, Econometric Model and Economic Forecasts, 2th ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc. Press. 1981.
30. Sargan, J. D., and Alok Bhargava" "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the ' Gaussian Random Walk." Econometrica, 51:1 (January 1983), 153-174.
31. Schmidt, Peter, "A Modification of the Almon Distributed Lag." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69:347(September 1974),679-681.
32. ??? ,and Roger N. Waud, "The Almon Lag Technique and Monetary Versus Fiscal Policy Debate." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 68:341 (March 1973), 11-19.
33. Shiller, Robert J ., "A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors."Econometrica, 41:4 (July 1973), 775-788.
34. Silber, William L., "The St. Louis Equation:'Democratic' and 'Republican 'Versions and Other Experiments." The Review of Economic and Statistics, 53:4 (November 1971), 362-367.
35. Sims, Christopher A., "Money, Income, and Causality."The American Economic Review, 62:4(September 1972), 540-552.
36. Vrooman, John, "Does the St. Louis Equation Even Believe in Itself? " Journal of Money,Credit, and Banking, 11 (February 1979), 111-117.
37. Williams, David, C.A.E. Goodhart, and D.H. Gowland, "Money, Income, and Causality: The U.K.Experience." The American Economic Review,66:3 (June 1976), 417-423.