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| 研究生： |
廖健豪 Liao, Chien-Hao |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
政黨衝突對經濟發展的影響 The influence of political conflict on economic development |
| 指導教授： |
楊子霆
Yang, Tzu-Ting 黃柏鈞 Huang, Po-Chun |
| 口試委員: |
鄭子長
Cheng, Tzu-Chang Forrest |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年： | 2020 |
| 畢業學年度： | 108 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 24 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 政黨衝突 、經濟發展 、政策不確定性 、政黨衝突指數 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | Political conflict, Economic development, Policy uncertainty, Political conflict index |
| DOI URL： | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202000193 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：202 下載：11 |
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| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
政黨衝突是否影響台灣經濟成長的影響一直是學界和產業界關心的議題，本研究參考Azzimonti（2018）嘗試利用1990年至2018年的台灣新聞資料，來建構政黨衝突指數（Political Conflict Index，以下簡稱PCI指數），並以計量模型探討政黨衝突對於總體經濟和企業投資的影響。研究結果顯示，PCI指數在重大衝突的重大事件（國民大會、政治遊行和政策改革）有明顯的上升趨勢，並且政府是否為分立政府顯著影響PCI指數的變化。而計量結果顯示，PCI指數的上升將會顯著造成FDI 的下降，而當PCI上升1倍時，企業的資本支出率將下降0.05個標準差。
Whether or not political conflicts affect Taiwan’s economic development has been a topic of concern to academics and industry. This study refers to Azzimonti (2018) 's attempt to use Taiwanese news from 1990 to 2018 to construct the Political Conflict Index, and use econometric models to explore the impact of political conflicts on the overall economy and corporate investment. The research results show that the PCI index has a clear upward trend in major events of political conflicts (National Congress, political marches and policy reforms), and whether the government is a divided government has significantly affected PCI index. The measurement results show that the rise of the PCI index will cause a significant decline in FDI, and when the PCI doubles, the company's capital expenditure rate will fall by 0.05 standard deviation.
第一章 緒論 7
第二章 文獻回顧 8
第一節 政黨衝突的量化 8
第二節 政黨衝突與企業投資的理論模型 9
第三節 政黨衝突與企業投資的實證研究 9
第三章 研究方法 10
第一節 PCI 指數建構方法 10
第二節 PCI 指數建構結果 12
第三節 向量自我回歸模型結果 17
第四節 計量分析結果 20
第四章 結論 23
參考文獻 24
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