| 研究生: |
黃子桓 Huang, Tzu-Huan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
外匯報酬之流動性、動能及價值交易策略分析 The Exchange Rate Return Pricing Models Including Factors of Liquidity, Momentum and Value Strategy |
| 指導教授: |
林建秀
Lin, Chien-Hsiu |
| 口試委員: |
林建秀
Lin, Chien-Hsiu 廖四郎 Liao, Szu-Lang 程智男 Chen, Chih-Nan |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2020 |
| 畢業學年度: | 108 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 41 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 外匯交易 、流動性交易策略 、動能交易策略 、價值交易策略 、Fama-MacBeth兩步驟迴歸 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | FX trading, Liquidity strategy, Momentum strategy, Value strategy, Fama-MacBeth Regressions |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202000600 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:104 下載:5 |
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本研究以探討流動性因子是否可解釋外匯報酬為主軸,比較兩種衡量流動性之指標Bid-Ask Spread與Corwin and Schultz (2012) 所建構之流動性因子,何者解釋外匯報酬能力較強。透過OLS迴歸及Fama-MacBeth兩步驟迴歸與定價誤差檢定,發現利用Corwin and Schultz(2012) 所建構之因子模型通過卡方聯合定價模型測試,其模型不存在定價誤差,故Corwin and Schultz (2012)所建構之因子模型較Bid-Ask Spread所建構之四因子模型更為適切。
另一方面利用HML投組法將37國匯率資料透過貨幣高低價倍數(CS流動性指標)、貨幣前期超額報酬、貨幣五年累積實質匯率變化量(FXV值)之測度進行分類,分別建構出流動性、動能及價值交易策略因子。透過OLS迴歸及Fama-MacBeth兩步驟迴歸與定價誤差檢定,分別檢視二因子(市場因子及流動性因子)、三因子(市場、動能及價值因子)及四因子(市場因子、流動性、動能及價值因子)模型之外匯報酬定價能力。根據實證分析結果,三因子模型在變數解釋能力、調整後判定係數以及定價誤差為零之聯合卡方檢定皆表現的較二因子及四因子模型適切。
This paper is mainly discussed whether the liquidity factor can explain the excess returns of foreign exchange, and compare the two liquidity factors constructed by Bid-Ask Spread and Corwin and Schultz (2012), which factors can explain the excess returns of foreign exchange properly. By using the OLS regression, Fama-MacBeth two-step regression and the test of pricing error, we found that only the factor model constructed by Corwin and Schultz (2012) passed the test of pricing error, which means that there was no pricing error in factor model constructed by Corwin and Schultz (2012) and is more suitable than the factor model constructed by Bid-Ask Spread.
Further, we used the exchange rate data of 37 countries to construct the LIQ, MS, VALUE factors via HML (high minus low) methodology. Using the FX of high and low price multiples (CS index), last month of the FX excess return, and the FX five-year cumulative real exchange rate change (FXV) as the measurements. By the OLS regression and Fama-MacBeth two-step regression and test of pricing error, we respectively examined the pricing ability of two-factor model (market and liquidity factor), three-factor model (market, momentum and value factor) and four-factor model (market, liquidity, momentum and value factor). According to the empirical analysis, the three-factor model is the best model to explain the FX excess return, comparing with the two-factor and four-factor models. No matter the adjusted coefficient of determination, and the test of pricing error, three-factor model perform well indeed.
第一章 緒論:1
第一節 研究背景及動機:1
第二節 研究目的:2
第三節 論文架構及章節介紹:2
第二章 文獻回顧:3
第一節 流動性(Liquidity)文獻探討:3
第二節 動能交易(Momentum) 文獻探討:6
第三節 價值交易(Value) 文獻探討:8
第三章 樣本選擇與研究方法:10
第一節 樣本選擇:10
第二節 策略因子建構:14
第三節 研究方法:27
第四章 實證結果分析:30
第一節 外匯二因子、三因子及四因子模型之比較:30
第五章 結論與建議:36
參考文獻:38
附錄:41
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