有關主觀機率判斷的心理學研究發現，人們判斷的品質通常並不佳，而普

遍有過度自信（overconfidence）的現象存在。本研究乃根據

Gigerenzer ，Hoffrage，& Kleinbolting（1991）所提的機率心理模式

（Probabilistic Mental Model; PMMs）為架構，透過圖形知 在實驗一

中操弄問題的抽樣方式（代表性 vs 選擇性）及困難度 高 vs. 低）來檢

視問題的抽樣方式、困難度的影響效果；以及難易效果逆轉（reversal

of the hard-easy effect）的現象。實驗二中操弄圖形間的相似度（高

、中、低）作為選擇抽樣的依據，目的在進一步檢視。研究結果發現：（

１）在知覺材料問題的判斷上受試者仍普遍發生過度自信。（２）高困難

度題目較低困難度題目有較高的過度自信產生。（３）選擇性抽樣問題會

較代表抽樣問題有較嚴重的過度自信，但不同的選擇性抽樣會有不同的影

響效果，而在本研究中，只有線索有效性。

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