| 研究生: |
黃翔何 Huang, Xiang-He |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
美元國際貨幣地位的變遷:美元化或去美元化 The Evolution of the U.S. Dollar's International Status : Dollarization or De-Dollarization |
| 指導教授: | 黃仁德 |
| 口試委員: |
張元晨
姜樹翰 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 181 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 布列敦森林制度 、美元化 、去美元化 、美元穩定幣 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Bretton Woods System, Dollarization, De-dollarization, U.S. Dollar-denominated Stablecoin |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:45 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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國際貨幣的主導地位,並非僅由其在官方外匯準備中的比重決定,而是建立在計價、交易、支付、融資與價值儲藏等功能,以及金融市場、流動性供給與制度網絡的共同支撐之上。近年來,官方準備資產多元化、本國貨幣結算與數位貨幣的發展,使去美元化成為國際金融的重要議題;然而,美元準備資產占比下降,是否意味美元國際貨幣地位逐漸沒落。將以英鎊與美元主導地位的歷史變遷為比較脈絡,從國際貨幣功能與全球金融結構切入,探討美元化的深化以及去美元化的進展。
研究結果顯示,美元在官方準備資產中的比重雖長期下降,但在全球外匯交易、跨境支付、美元融資、安全資產與抵押品制度中仍居核心地位。美國公債的市場深度、聯準會的流動性支持與支付清算網絡,共同提高改用其他貨幣的成本。美元穩定幣亦將美元使用延伸至加密資產與新型跨境支付。現有本國貨幣結算、黃金配置與替代支付安排主要用於風險分散,尚未形成能承接美元各項功能的完整替代體系。因此,當前國際貨幣體系較接近美元主導下的多元化,而非其主導地位的全面終結。
英鎊經驗顯示,主導貨幣的更替,不僅需要原有發行國的經濟、財政與制度信用持續弱化,也須有替代貨幣具備足夠的市場深度、金融網絡與危機流動性支持。對臺灣而言,2012至2025年間,美元占出口外匯收入的比重除2020年外均超過九成,進口外匯支出中的美元比重亦始終超過八成,反映企業的報價、收付款、貿易融資與避險安排已形成明顯的美元黏著性。綜合而言,美元的國際地位並非不可逆轉,但在其他貨幣尚未建立完整替代能力之前,其核心地位仍不易被全面取代。
The dominance of an international currency is determined not solely by its share of official foreign exchange reserves, but also by the extent to which it functions as a unit of account, medium of exchange, means of payment, funding currency, and store of value, as well as by the financial markets, liquidity provision, and institutional networks that support these roles. In recent years, the diversification of official reserve assets, the expansion of local-currency settlement, and the development of digital currencies have made de-dollarization a major issue in international finance. A central question, however, is whether the dollar’s declining share of reserve assets signals a gradual erosion of its international monetary status. Drawing on the historical evolution of sterling and the dollar as dominant international currencies, this study examines the deepening of dollarization and the progress of de-dollarization through the lenses of international monetary functions and the structure of global finance.
The findings show that although the dollar’s share of official reserve assets has declined over the long term, it remains central to global foreign exchange trading, cross-border payments, dollar funding, and safe-asset and collateral systems. The depth of the U.S. Treasury market, liquidity support from the Federal Reserve, and established payment and clearing networks collectively raise the cost of switching to other currencies. U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins have also extended the use of the dollar into crypto-asset markets and new forms of cross-border payment. Existing local-currency settlement arrangements, allocations to gold, and alternative payment mechanisms serve primarily to diversify risk and have yet to form a comprehensive alternative system capable of performing the full range of functions currently served by the dollar. Accordingly, the current international monetary system is better characterized as diversification under dollar dominance than as a wholesale end to that dominance.
The experience of sterling shows that a transition between dominant currencies requires not only a sustained weakening of the incumbent issuer’s economic, fiscal, and institutional credibility, but also the emergence of an alternative currency with sufficient market depth, financial networks, and crisis liquidity support. For Taiwan, between 2012 and 2025, the dollar accounted for more than 90 percent of export foreign exchange receipts in every year except 2020, while its share of import foreign exchange payments remained above 80 percent throughout the period. These patterns reflect pronounced dollar stickiness in firms’ pricing, receipts and payments, trade finance, and hedging arrangements. Overall, the dollar’s international monetary status is not irreversible; however, its core position is unlikely to be fully displaced until other currencies develop comprehensive substitutive capabilities.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究內容與章節安排 2
第二章 英鎊的興起與沒落 5
第一節 英鎊國際地位的建立 5
第二節 金本位與倫敦金融中心對英鎊地位的支撐 6
第三節 第一次世界大戰與英鎊體系的動搖 8
一、英國戰時財政結構的惡化 9
二、戰時金本位制度的鬆動 11
第四節 第一次世界大戰後恢復金本位與英鎊地位的鬆動 13
第五節 第二次世界大戰與英鎊的落幕 15
第六節 結語 17
第三章 美元的崛起與獨霸 19
第一節 美元國際化的起步與挫折 19
一、第一次世界大戰前後美元國際化的制度限制與歷史背景 20
二、聯邦準備銀行制度的建立與美元國際化的起步 21
三、經濟大蕭條與美元國際化的中斷 23
四、貨幣集團的分立與美元國際貨幣地位的未能確立 25
第二節 布列敦森林制度的建立與運作 26
一、布列敦森林制度形成的背景 26
二、布列敦森林制度的運作方式 29
第三節 布列敦森林制度的崩潰 31
第四節 石油美元的建立 35
一、後布列敦森林制度時期的美元需求 35
二、1970年代能源危機與石油市場的制度化轉折 36
三、美沙協議與石油美元機制的形成 37
四、石油美元與全球準備貨幣需求的結構性擴張 39
第五節 廣場協議 40
一、美元升值壓力與廣場協議 41
二、日圓升值與泡沫經濟 42
三、廣場協議的制度意義 44
第六節 結語 45
第四章 美元作為國際貨幣的重要性變化 47
第一節 美元化與去美元化的理論基礎 47
一、美元國際貨幣地位的觀察層次 48
二、通貨替代與資產替代 48
三、美元化的制度型態與功能表現 49
四、去美元化的層次、途徑與限制 51
第二節 美元霸權對美國的經濟利益與金融權力 52
一、美元的鑄幣稅收益 53
二、美元霸權帶給美國的投資與融資收益 54
三、美元霸權帶來的匯率與金融權力 56
第三節 美元在官方準備中比重的變化 57
一、主要國際貨幣在官方外匯準備中的比重變化 57
(一)歐元成立前 58
(二)歐元成立後 58
(三)納入人民幣後 60
第四節 國際貨幣在外匯市場的交易比重變化 60
一、主要國際貨幣在外匯市場不同交易中的比重變化 61
(一)主要國際貨幣的外匯交易比重 61
(二)主要國際貨幣外匯交易中即期交易的比重 63
(三)主要國際貨幣外匯交易中換匯交易的比重 65
第五節 主要國際貨幣的國際支付比重 67
第六節 美元指數與美元國際貨幣地位 69
第七節 結語 71
第五章 美元化的深化 73
第一節 全球安全資產與美元資產的需求 73
一、安全資產短缺與美元資產的需求端支撐 74
二、外國私人部門持有美國公債比重上升 76
三、美元安全資產的便利收益 77
四、便利收益的自我強化與美元國際貨幣地位 79
第二節 全球美元融資網絡與官方流動性支持 80
一、美元作為全球金融條件的核心 81
二、資產負債表外美元支付義務與美元融資依賴的深化 83
三、聯準會對全球美元流動性的支持 85
四、聯準會提供全球美元流動性的能力 88
五、私人信貸與非銀行機構的美元中介擴張 90
六、私人信貸擴張與美元流動性依賴 92
第三節 跨境美元支付清算體系與抵押品依賴 94
一、跨境美元支付體系的架構 95
二、美元清算的效率優勢 97
三、集中清算機構的美元抵押品需求 99
第四節 結語 101
第六章 美元穩定幣與美元國際貨幣地位的深化 105
第一節 穩定幣的類型 105
一、穩定幣主要類型與發行制度 106
二、法幣抵押型穩定幣與美元連結 107
第二節 美元穩定幣與美元國際貨幣地位的延伸 109
一、美元穩定幣在加密通貨市場中的計價主導地位 110
二、美元穩定幣與新興市場的非正式美元化 111
三、美元穩定幣的發行準備金與美國公債需求 113
四、美元穩定幣的套利與美元需求 116
五、金融開放程度與美元的滲透 117
第三節 結語 118
第七章 去美元化的進展 121
第一節 官方準備資產結構的變化 121
一、黃金準備的占比變化 122
二、中國的官方準備資產與人民幣結算發展 124
三、俄羅斯的官方準備資產結構變化 126
四、印度的官方準備資產配置與國幣結算 129
第二節 金融制裁對美元體系的影響 131
一、俄羅斯央行的資產凍結事件 131
二、央行資產制裁的潛在成本 134
三、支付體系多元化 135
第三節 數位通貨與跨境支付體系的發展 137
一、數位人民幣與人民幣跨境支付的應用發展 138
二、非美元清算管道的建立 139
三、數位支付發展下美元體系的挑戰 141
第四節 美國財政與去美元化 142
一、美國公債的貨幣性與新杜里芬困境 143
二、美國財政可持續性與去美元化 145
三、美國財政惡化與去美元化的資產配置 147
四、美元購買力弱化與去美元化動機 148
第五節 結語 150
第八章 美元國際貨幣地位的展望 153
第一節 英鎊經驗對美元的啟示 153
第二節 布列敦森林制度經驗對美元的啟示 156
第三節 美元化深化的因素 158
第四節 數位通貨與美元化 161
第五節 去美元化的因素 162
第六節 人民幣與歐元對美元貨幣地位的挑戰 163
第七節 臺灣的美元化 167
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