隨著中國一帶一路的推展，中國在國際的影響力日益擴張，非洲亦成為其大力經營的對象。然而，非洲各國對中國的回應卻存在差異：有些國家積極展開合作，將中國視為發展的重要夥伴；另一些國家則在合作之餘，仍保持警惕，展現與中國較衝突的姿態。本文之目的即在回答「為什麼非洲各國對中國的互動呈現出不同的模式？」、「中國的投資是否能夠有效轉化為影響力」、「中國在非洲的投資，是否會影響非洲對美國行為？」。本文以新古典現實主義為分析視角，認為中國的影響力必須透過單元層次的轉換，民主程度正是其中關鍵的調節因素。本文以2005年至2021年間49個非洲國家為樣本，並使用GDELT大數據資料庫，將行為區分成合作、低度衝突、高度衝突作為依變數，以中國投資作為體系變數，民主制度為單元調節變數，運用GEE模型進行實證分析。結果發現，中國投資對非洲國家的影響力，必須透過民主程度的交互作用才能顯現。在合作層次，中國投資能促進合作，但隨著民主程度提高，其正向效果逐漸減弱；在低度衝突層次，中國投資有助於降低衝突，但隨民主程度提升而趨於不顯著；至於高度衝突，則無顯著關聯。此外，中國投資的影響侷限於非洲與中國的關係中，無法外溢至非洲和美國的互動；相對之下，民主程度在非洲與美國的合作和低度衝突中則具有顯著效果。整體而言，本文釐清了中國投資、民主制度與非洲國家外交行為之間的關聯，並驗證了新古典現實主義對於「外部壓力必須透過國內變數解讀後轉換」的核心主張，中國的影響力雖可觀，但能否發揮作用，最終仍取決於非洲的單元條件。

With the expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Africa has become a major arena of Chinese engagement. Yet African states respond differently: some embrace cooperation, while others remain cautious and conflictual. This study asks: Why do African states display divergent responses to China? Can Chinese investment translate into influence? Does it affect Africa and U.S. relations? Using neoclassical realism as the analytical approach, the study argues that China’s influence is mediated by domestic institutions, particularly democracy. Drawing on data from 49 African countries (2005–2021) and the GDELT database, diplomatic interactions are coded as cooperation, low-intensity conflict, and high-intensity conflict. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) are employed for empirical analysis. Findings show that Chinese investment matters only through interaction with democracy: it promotes cooperation and reduces low-intensity conflict, but these effects weaken as democracy increases; no significant effect is found for high-intensity conflict. Moreover, China’s investment influences only China–Africa relations, with no spillover to Africa–U.S. ties. In sum, the study confirms the neoclassical realist claim that external pressure must be filtered through unit variables.

中文部分
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