對於私部門儲蓄（private saving）之組成成分──公司儲蓄（cor-

porate saving）與家庭儲蓄（household saving）間究竟存在著什麼樣

的互動關係，因涉及政府之租稅重分配政策是否可提升私部門儲蓄的課題

，一直是關心資本形成的經濟學者所爭論的焦點。本文即希望透過

Granger- Sims檢定法則，首次透過因果關係的角度澄清兩者之間的關連

關係，確立可能存在的因果方向及型態，以作為政府施政時的參考。臺灣

地區之實證結果顯示：公司儲蓄(SC)、家庭儲蓄(SH)不論在所得稅負變數

是否存在下，均呈現同向之回饋因果關係。個體儲蓄決策過程中，超理

性 (ultra rationality)並不存在，一旦公司儲蓄、家庭儲蓄兩者之一有

所增減，必帶動另一者作同方向之變動，對整體私部門儲蓄率之變動只有

加劇而無抵消之效果。是故在所得稅負重分配政策的採行上，政府須審慎

考慮其對私部門資本形成所帶來之負面打擊。

壹、中文部份
一、汪義育「台灣物價與所得波動之探討一向量自迴歸分析之
結論」， 中國經濟學會年會論文集抽印本， 1985 。
二、封昌宏，祖稅收入與政府支出之因果關係檢定一台灣地區實
證，東吳大學經研所碩士論文， 1991。
三、徐偉初「公共支出、公共收入及國民所得:因果關係之驗
證」，國立政治大學學報，第五十六期， 1987。
四、梁志民，台灣總體經濟時間數列長期趨勢與短期波動關聯之
研究，政大財研所碩士論文， 1991 。
五、楊雅惠「 貨幣、利率與物價之因果檢定一多變數時間數列
模型之運用」 中華經濟研究院，經濟專論(85) , 1986。
六、蔡玉時，公共支出與國民所得之因果關係一台灣地區之實証
分析，政大財研所碩士論文， 1991。
七、蔡麗茹，台灣總體經濟變動之因果關係檢定，政大貿研所碩
士論文， 1988。
八、蔡麗茹，總體數列之非恆定計量方法與應用，政大經研所博
士論文， 1992。
九、蘇慶祥「 我囡囡民儲蓄統計編製之研究」 中央銀行季刊
，第十三卷，第二期， 1991/6 。

(1) Aghevli, Bijan B., James M. Boughton, Peter J.
Montiel, Delano Villanueva, and Geoffery Woglom
( 1990) , "T heR ole 0 f Nat 'i 0 n a 1 S a vi n gin the Wo r 1 d
Economy: Recent Trends and Prospects," IMF Occational
Paper # 67.
(2) Baumol, Wi 11 ian J., Peggy Heim, Burton G. Malkiel,
and Richard E. Quandt(1970) ,Earnings Retention,New
Capital ,and the Growth of the Firm, "Review of
Economics and Statistics,vol.52,pp.345-355.
(3) Bhatia, Kul B.(1979),"Corporate Taxation, Retained
Earnings, and Capital Formation," Journal of Pubic
Economics, Vol. 11,pp.123-134.
(4) Blades, Derek W., and Peter H. Sturm ( 1982) , "The
Concept and Measurement of Savings: The United
States and Other Industrialized Countries," in
Saving and Government Policy, Federal Reserve Bank
of Boston Conference Series, No. 25.
(5) Boskin, Michael J.(1988),"Issues in the Measurement
and Interpretation of Savings and Wealth,"
NBER Working Paper # 2633.
(6) Bovenberg, A. Lans and Owen Evans(1989),"National
and Personal Sav i ng : Meas ureme nt and Analysi s of
Recent Trends," IMF Working Paper # 89/99.
(7) David, Paul A., and John L. Scadding(1974),"
Private Savings: Ultra-rationality, Aggregation
and Den i son I sLaw," Journa 1 of Po 1 it i ca 1 Economy,
Vol. 82,pp.225-249.
(8) Denison, Edward F.(1958),"A Note on Private Saving
," Rev i e w 0 f E con 0 m i c san d S tat i s tic s, Vol. 40, P P .
261-267.
(9) Dickey, D.A.,and W.A. Fuller(1981),"Likel-ihood
Ratio Statistics for Autogressive Time Series with
a Unit Root," Econometric,Vol. 49,pp.l057-72.
(10) Easterbrook, Frank H. (1984), "Two Agency-Cost
Explanations of Dividends," American Economic
Review, Vol.74, pp.650-59.
(11) Feldstein, Martin S.(1973),"Tax Incentives,
Corporate Saving, and Capital Accumulation in the
United States," Journal of Publ ic Economics, Vol.
2, pp.159-171.
(12) Feldstein, Martin S., and George Fane(1973),"Taxes
, Corporate Dividend Policy and Person Saving: The
Bri t ish Post War Experi ence," Revi ew of Economi cs
and Statistics, Vol. 55,pp. 399-411.
(13) Fuller, W.A.(1976), Introduction to Statistical
Time Series, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
( 14) Granger , C. ~J .J.(1 969 ),"I nvesti g at ing Causa l
Relationship by Econometric Models and Cross
(15) Granger, C.W.J.(1980),”Testing for Causality: A Personal View Point,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.2, pp.329-52.
(16) Hendershoot, Patric H., and Joe Peek (1987),”Private Saving in the United States:1950-85,” NBER Working Paper #2294.
(17)Howrey, E. Philip, and Saul H. Hymans(1978), “The Measurement and Determination of Lonable-Funds Saving,” Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.3, pp.655-705.
(18)Johnston,J.(1984),Econometric Methods, New York:McGraw-Hill , third edtion.
(19)Kaldor, Nicholas (1955),”Alternative Theories of Distribution, “Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 23, pp. 83-100.
(20)Miller, Merton H., and Kevin Rock(1985), “Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information,” Journal of Finance, Vol.40, pp.1031-51.
(21)Musgrave, Richard A., and Peggy B. Musgrave (1984),Public Finance in Theory and Practice, 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Unknown Order," Biometrika, Vol.71,pp.599-608.
(25) Schwert, C.W.(1987), lf Effects of Model Misspecification
on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic
Data,lI Journal of Monetary Economics,. Vol. 20,pp.
73-103.
(26) Schwert, C.W.(1988),"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte
Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Paper
No. 73.
(27) Shefrin, Hersh M. ,and Meir Statman(1984), "Explani
ng I nvestor Preference for Cash D i vi d ends I II
Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 13, pp.253-82
(28) Shleifer, Andrei,and Robert W. Vishny(1986),IILarge
Shareholders and Corporate Control, Journal of
Pol itical Economy, Vol.94,pp.461-88.
(29)Sims, Christopher(1972),”Money,Income,and Causality.” American Economic Reform:A Review,” IMF Staff Papers,37, pp 1-70.
(31)Summers, Lawrence H.,and Chris Carool(1987),”Why Is U.S. National Saving So Low? “Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Vol.2 ,pp.607-42.
(32)von Furstenberg, George M.(1981),”Saving,” in Henry J. Aaron and Joseph A. Pechman, eds., How Taxes Affect Economic Behavior, pp.327-390.