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研究生: 胡孫寧
Hu, Sun-Ning
論文名稱: 中共的待客之道:習近平時代中共高層會見外賓的模式
The CCP's diplomatic hospitality: patterns of foreign guest reception by top Chinese leaders in the Xi Jinping era
指導教授: 寇健文
口試委員: 張廖年仲
曾偉峯
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 政治學系
Department of Political Science
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 115
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 143
中文關鍵詞: 習近平策略性減壓分憂不分權中國外交領導人外交
外文關鍵詞: Xi Jinping, strategic pressure relief, sharing the burden without sharing power, Chinese diplomacy, leader diplomacy
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  • 在權力高度集中的個人化威權體制下,最高領導人同時面對「無限責任」與「有限精力」這一結構性矛盾。本研究以中共中央政治局常務委員會在習近平時代會見外賓的模式為觀察對象,試圖回答:哪些外賓由習近平會見、哪些可以授權其他常委、授權之後又由誰承接以及這些選擇背後是否潛藏特定的政治邏輯。
    本研究採量化研究途徑,資料來源為「人民數據」領導人活動報導,分別建構國家與企業組織之資料集,並以描述性統計與二元羅吉斯迴歸模型,跨場域檢驗三組研究假設。
    研究發現,習近平時代中共最高層的外賓接待,是一套「策略性減壓」與「政治平衡」並行運作的雙重機制。外賓重要性是習近平是否會見的核心篩選條件,國家會見以職位層級為主導,企業組織會見則以組織類型為核心。此外,減壓的型態因外交慣例的有無而異,在受外交慣例約束的國家場域,習近平對元首級外賓的會見比例不降反升,呈現選擇性的策略性減壓;在缺乏慣例約束的企業場域,隨著年紀增長,整體會見機率系統性下降,呈現全面性的策略性減壓。同時,當習近平缺席時,重要性較高的外賓更傾向交由其信任的非涉外常委承接,藉以稀釋涉外常委的外交資本,構成「分憂不分權」的政治平衡邏輯,此一機制隨時期推進而強化。
    本研究的核心貢獻,在於辨識出外交慣例作為制度條件,如何形塑策略性減壓與政治平衡的具體運作型態,並將最高領導人的外賓會見此一看似事務性的禮賓行為,重新詮釋為個人化威權體制下維繫權力結構、管理領導人精力的治理工具,為威權體制下的菁英政治與領導人外交研究提供新的實證基礎。


    In a highly personalized authoritarian system, the top leader has almost unlimited responsibilities but only limited time and energy. This thesis examines how members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) received foreign guests during the Xi Jinping era, and what political logic lay behind these choices. It asks three questions: how a guest's importance affects whether Xi attends in person or delegates the reception; who takes over when he is absent, and whether this follows a logic of political balancing; and whether these patterns change over time.
    Drawing on leadership-activity reports from the People's Data database, the study builds two datasets, one for meetings with foreign states and one for meetings with foreign firms and organizations, and uses descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression to test three hypotheses in both settings.
    The findings point to two mechanisms working together, which the thesis calls strategic pressure relief and political balancing. A guest's importance is the main factor in whether Xi attends, though what counts as important differs by setting: positional rank in state meetings and organization type in enterprise meetings. The form the relief takes then depends on diplomatic protocol. Where protocol applies, Xi keeps meeting heads of state and instead cuts back on lower-ranking guests, a selective form of relief; where it does not, his attendance falls across the board as he ages, a comprehensive one. When Xi is absent, the more important guests tend to go not to the PSC members responsible for foreign affairs but to trusted members outside that portfolio, an arrangement the thesis describes as "sharing the burden without sharing power." This tendency strengthens over time, though only in state meetings.
    The thesis therefore argues that diplomatic protocol, as an institutional condition, both distinguishes the two forms of relief and shapes whether they change over time. Understood this way, receiving foreign guests is not merely a ceremonial routine but an instrument of governance, one that lets a personalist leader manage his own energy while keeping his hold on power.

    目次 V
    表次 VI
    圖次 VII
    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與問題意識 1
    第二節 文獻回顧 4
    第三節 研究架構與假設 17
    第四節 研究設計與方法 30
    第五節 章節安排 41
    第二章 習近平的會見決策與策略性減壓 43
    第一節 會見活動的總體趨勢與外賓結構 43
    第二節 外賓重要性與習近平出席的選擇性邏輯 55
    第三節 策略性減壓的動態演變與穩健性檢定 64
    第四節 小結 71
    第三章 授權會見的政治平衡邏輯 74
    第一節 授權會見的整體輪廓與常委結構 74
    第二節 政治平衡邏輯的迴歸檢驗 83
    第三節 政治平衡邏輯的穩健性與動態演變 95
    第四節 小結 101
    第四章 企業組織會見的跨場域比較 103
    第一節 企業與組織會見的整體輪廓 104
    第二節 兩階段決策的迴歸與個案分析 111
    第三節 跨場域比較:國家會見 vs 企業組織會見 120
    第四節 小結 124
    第五章 結論 125
    第一節 研究發現 125
    第二節 研究限制 130
    第三節 未來展望 134
    第四節 結語 134
    參考文獻 136

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    聯合新聞網,2025年8月19日,https://udn.com/news/story/6841/8948783。

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