| 研究生: |
吳奕寬 Wu, Yi-Kuan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
自願性氣候變遷資訊揭露之於公司信用風險:輔以機器學習的法說會會議紀錄文本萃取 The Impact of Voluntary Climate Change Information Disclosure on Corporate Credit Risk: Machine-Learning Assisted Text Mining of Earnings Call Transcripts |
| 指導教授: |
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu |
| 口試委員: |
許育進
Hsu, Yu-Chin 徐之強 Hsu, Chih-Chiang 盧佳琪 Lu, Chia-Chi |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2024 |
| 畢業學年度: | 112 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 35 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 信用風險 、氣候情緒 、氣候變遷 、資本成本 、資訊不對稱 、資訊揭露 、機器學習 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Climate Change, Climate Sentiment, Cost of Capital, Credit Risk, Information Asymmetry, Information Disclosure, Machine Learning |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:53 下載:0 |
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透過 Sautner et al. (2023)由法說會之自願性氣候變遷資訊輔以機器學習方法萃取之氣候資訊揭露程度,我們發現公司氣候變遷的資訊揭露與其信用風險呈現顯著負向關係,且隨著期限結構增加,此關係愈強烈,我們推測氣候資訊的揭露導致公司資本成本下降,進而使公司信用風險下降。從短期角度來看,公司所在國家對其短期信用風險有所影響;而在長期,公司本身的特性則成為影響長期信 用風險的關鍵因素。我們更進一步發現,相較於獲利波動較小的公司,獲利波動較大的公司在揭露氣候資訊後,其短期信用風險更為顯著地下降,這顯示了獲利不穩定的公司透過揭露氣候資訊,能夠快速減少資訊不對稱性,降低短期信用風險。最後,氣候情緒指標反映了投資者對公司氣候資訊的樂觀程度,其與各天期的違約機率呈現負向關聯,顯示出投資人的樂觀情緒有助於降低公司的信用風險。
Using machine learning methods to extract voluntary climate change information disclosure from earnings calls conducted by Sautner et al. (2023), we find a significant negative relationship between firms' disclosure of climate change information and their credit risk. Moreover, as the term structure increases, this relationship becomes stronger. We speculate that climate change information disclosure leads to a decrease in firms' cost of capital, thereby reducing their credit risk. From a short-term perspective, the country in which the firm operates influences its short-term credit risk. Whereas in the long term, the firm's characteristics become key factors affecting long-term credit risk. Furthermore, we find that compared to firms with smaller performance volatility, firms with larger performance volatility experience a more significant reduction in short-term credit risk after disclosing climate information. This demonstrates that firms with unstable profits can quickly reduce information asymmetry and lower short-term credit risk through climate information disclosure. Finally, the climate sentiment index reflects investors' optimism about firms' climate information, showing a negative correlation with default probabilities across different maturity periods, indicating that investor optimism helps reduce firms' credit risk.
致謝 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 信用風險 5
2.1.1 信用違約風險模型回顧 5
2.1.2 信用違約風險的期限結構 6
2.2 氣候變遷風險 6
2.2.1 氣候風險與公司違約風險 6
2.2.2 資訊揭露、資訊不對稱與資本成本 7
2.2.3 氣候資訊的量化 9
第三章 研究資料與方法 11
3.1 假說建立 11
3.2 變數介紹 12
3.2.1 氣候變遷曝險與氣候情緒 12
3.2.2 氣候變遷二元語法搜尋演算法 13
3.2.3 公司違約機率 15
3.2.4 控制變數 16
3.3 資料整理與描述 17
3.4 實證模型 20
第四章 實證結果 21
4.1 迴歸分析結果 21
4.1.1 混合估計模型 21
4.1.2 公司與時間固定效果模型 23
4.1.3 國家與時間固定效果模型 24
4.1.4 縱橫資料迴歸模型 25
4.2 公司獲利穩定度與氣候資訊揭露的效果 27
4.3 氣候情緒 28
第五章 結論 30
參考文獻 32
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全文公開日期 2029/06/13