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| 研究生： |
黃學亮 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
模擬技術與廻歸分析在行銷決策應用上之研究 無 |
| 指導教授： | 祈富生 |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 統計學系 Department of Statistics |
| 論文出版年： | 1978 |
| 畢業學年度： | 67 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 120 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 無 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：198 下載：0 |
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第一章 前言1
第二章 貝氏決策理論在行銷決策上之應用6
第一節 貝氏決策理論之一般特質6
第二節 貝氏決策理論在分配決策上之應用，直接銷售與間接銷售之比較8
第三節 貝氏決策理論在價格決策之競標模式之應用10
第四節 貝氏決策理論在新產品決策上之應用18
第五節 貝氏分析在推銷員之甄選及配置決策上之應用22
第六節 EMV在旅行推銷員問題之應用27
第三章 馬可夫鏈鎖在行銷決策上之應用32
第一節 馬可夫鏈之一般特質32
第二節 推移機率之估計36
第三節 馬可夫鏈鎖在市場占有率預測上之應用46
第四節 馬可夫鏈鎖在市場佔有率預測上之評估53
第五節 馬可夫鏈鎖在分配決策上之應用57
第六節 馬可夫鏈鎖在價格決策上之應用61
第七節 馬可夫鏈鎖在促銷決策上之應用67
第八節 馬可夫鏈鎖在銷售計劃與控制上之應用70
第四章 蒙地卡羅方法在行銷決策上之應用 74 第一節 蒙地卡羅方法之一般特質 74 第二節 蒙地卡羅方法在損益平衡分析上之應用75
第三節 利用蒙地卡羅方法做價格決策79
第四節 利用蒙地卡羅方法做新產品計劃81
第五章 廻歸分析在行銷決策上的應用85
第一節 廻歸分析的一般特質85
第二節 廻歸分析在損益平衡分析上的應用89
第三節 C -V-P 分析在行銷組合決策上之應用92
第四節 廻歸分析在價格決策上之應用97
第五節 廻歸分析在推銷員配置決策上之應用100
第六節 廻歸分析在廣告支出決策上之應用105
第六章 結論107
第一節 幾種統計方法之回顧107
第二節 統計方法在實際應用時所遭到之困難108
第三節 如何有效地將統計方法應用到行銷決策上111
參考資料113
(一)期刊部份
1. Chambers, J. C. S. K. Mullick and D. D. Smith. “How to Choose the Right Forecasting Technique.” Harvard Business Review. July-Aug. 1971. pp. 45-74.
2. Chatfield, C. “Statistical Inference Regarding Markov Chain Models.” Applied Statistics Vol 22. 1973. pp 7-19.
3. Dorfman, R. and P. O. Steiner, “Optimal Advertising and Optimal Quality.” American Economic Review. Dec. 1954. pp. 826-836.
4. Ezzati, A. “Forecasting Market Shares of Alternative Home- heating Units by Markov Processes Using Transition Probabilities Estimated from Aggregate Time Series Data. “ Management Science Vol 21. 1974. pp. 462-472.
5. Ferrara, W. L., J. C. Hayya, and D. A. Nachman, ”Normalcy of Profit in the Jadicke-Robichek Model.” The Accounting Review. April 1972, pp. 299-307.
6. Frank, R. E. and P. E. Green, “Bayesian Statistics and Marketing Research. “ Applied Statistics Nov. 1966 pp. 173-190.
7. Harris, L. “New Product Marketing; A Case Study in Decision Making Under Uncertainty. “ Applied Statistics Vol 16. 1967 pp 39-42.
8. Hartung, P. H. and J. L. Fisher, “Brand Switching and Mathematical Programming in Marketing Expansion.” Management Science, XI Aug. 1965. pp 231-243.
9. King, W. R. “A Stochastic Personnel-Assignment Model.” Operations Research, XIII. Jan-Fib. 1965. pp. 67-81.
10. Kotter, P. “The Use of Mathematical Models in Marketing.” Journal of Marketing Research. Oct. 1963. pp. 31-41.
11. ______“Marketing Mix Decisions for New Products.” Journal of Marketing Research. Feb. 1964. pp. 43-49.
12. ______“Operations Research in Marketing.” Harvard Business Review. Jan-Feb. 1967. pp. 30-46.
13. Lee, T. C., G. G. Judge, and A. Zellner, “Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Estimation of Transition Probability.” Journal of American Statistics Association. 1968. pp. 1162-1179.
14. Liao, M. “Model Sampling: A Stochastic Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis.” The Accounting Review. 1975. pp. 780-790.
15. Mitchell, M. S. “The Probability of being the Lowest Bidder.” Applied Statistics, Vol 26, No. 2. 1977. pp. 191-194.
16. Robert, H. V. “Bayes Statistics in Marketing,” Journal of Marketing.” Vol. 27, .(Jan. 1963) pp. 1-4.
17. Styan, G. P. H. and H. Smith, Jr., “Markov Chain Applied to Marketing.” Journal of Marketing Research. 1. Feb. 1964 pp. 50-55.
18. Thompson, W. W. and J. U. McNeal, “Sales Planning and Control Using Absorbing Markov Chain“ Journal of Marketing Research, Feb. 1967, pp. 62-66.
19. Vidale, M. L. and H. B. Wolfe, “ An Operation Research Study of Sales Response to Advertising.” Operations Research, Jan. 1957. pp. 370-381.
(二)
1. Alderson, W., and P. E. Green: Planning and Problem Solving in Marketing. Homewood, III.: Richard D. Irwin 1969.
2. Bierman, H., C. P. Bonini, and W. H. Haussman: Quantitative Analysis for Business Decision. 5th. ed. Homewood. III.: Richard D. Irwin 1977.
3. Clark, W. A., and D. E. Sexton: Marketing and Management Science: A Synergism, Homewood III.: Richard D. Irwin. 1972.
4. Donnelly, J. H., and J. M. Ivancevich: Analysis for Marketing Decisions. Homewood. III.: Richard D. Irwin. 1970.
5. Drapper, N.R., and H. Smith: Apply Regression Analysis. New York: John Wiley and Sons. 1966.
6. Frank, R. E., and P. E. Green.: Quantitative Methods in Marketing. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1967.
7. Green, P. E., and D. S. Tull: Research for Marketing Decisions. 3rd. ed. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. 1975.
8. Harder, T.: Introduction to Mathematical Models in Market and Opinion Research, New York: Gordon and Breach/Science Publisher 1969.
9. Johnstone, J. : Econometric Methods. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill 1972.
10. Jolson, M. A., and T. Hise: Quantitative Techniques for Marketing Decisions.” New York: Macmillan 1973.
11. Jones, T. M.: Introduction to Decision Theory, Homewood III.: Richard D. Irwin.
12. King, W. R.: Quantitative Analysis for Marketing Management. New Jersey: McGraw-Hill, 1967.
13. Kolter, P. : Marketing Decision Making: A Model Building Approach. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970.
14. _____ : Marketing Management, Analysis, Planning and Control 3rd. ed. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. 1975.
15. Lee, T. C., G. G. Judge, and A. Zellner: Estimating the Parameters of the Markov Probability Model from Aggregate Time Time Data. 2nd ed. Amsterdam: North Holland 1975.
16. Montgomery, D. B. and G. L. Urban: Management Science in Marketing. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1969.
17. Mood, A. M., F. A. Graybil, and D. C. Boes: Introduction to the Theory of Statistics. 3rd. ed. New Jersey: McGraw-Hill 1974.
18. Ostle. B. and R.W. Mensing: Statistics in Research 3rd. ed. Ames: The Iowa State Univ. Press 1975.
19. Thierauf R. J. and K. C. Klekamp: Decision Making Through Operations Research, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons. 1975.
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