在貿易自由化以及全球價值鏈的擴張下，各國市場互相依存，國際價格的波動對小型開放經濟體系的經常帳造成影響。有鑒於過去實證的文獻上，貿易條件與經常帳的關係並不穩定。因此，本文主要目的為研究臺灣貿易條件的變動，並分析臺灣與全球和臺灣與主要貿易夥伴國的資料是否符合Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (H-L-M)效果，當貿易條件惡化時，連帶經常帳也跟著惡化。比較臺灣整體貿易條件和臺灣與主要貿易夥伴國的貿易條件走勢，臺灣對全球的貿易條件從2000年以來一路下滑，趨勢和臺灣與中國大陸的貿易條件相同；臺灣與美國和南韓的貿易條件波動程度比較大，兩者分別在不同時期各有一個高峰；相比之下，臺灣與日本的貿易條件則相對穩定。本文根據經常帳現值模型，建構向量自我迴歸模型、向量誤差修正模型和衝擊反應函數，分析貿易條件與經常帳和貿易條件與貿易餘額的動態關係。實證結果顯示，H-L-M效果僅顯著地存在臺灣與全球和臺灣與日本的短期關係中。顯示過去實證文獻以國家與全球為討論的範疇下，H-L-M效果不見得會成立，可能可以從國家與主要貿易夥伴國的層級去解釋。

In the background of trade liberalization and the expansion of global value chains, markets in different countries are connected, which means that the fluctuations of prices of commodity goods could easily have impacts on current accounts of small open economies. In the past studies, the relationship of terms of trade and current account are not stable. According to the past studies, the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (H-L-M) effect describes the deterioration of terms of trade ends up with the deterioration of current account. Therefore, the main purpose of this thesis is to study the terms of trade of Taiwan and find that if the H-L-M effect exists in Taiwan, from the scope of global and main trade partners. Comparing the trend of the aggregate terms of trade with disaggregate terms of trade, namely the bilateral number with China, US, Japan and South Korea. The trend of the aggregate terms of trade is quite the same as the bilateral one with China, both of them declining from 2000. The bilateral terms of trade with US and South Korea are volatile from 2003 to 2019, each has a spike during the empirical period. By contrast, the bilateral terms of trade with Japan is more stable and without a declining trend. In this paper, the concept of present value model is used to build a theoretical model. Vector autoregression model, vector error correction model and impulse response function are used to study the dynamic relation of terms of trades and trade balances. Empirical results show that the H-L-M effect only exists in the cases of the current account and the trade balance with Japan, which may tell us why the H-L-M effect is unstable in the previous studies.

中央銀行（2011）。全球暨台灣貿易條件變動之解析。中央銀行年報，中華民國100年，103-106。
主計總處、經建會（2011）。我國貿易條件變動情形。檢自: http://www.cbc.gov.tw/public/Attachment/152511123171.pdf
沈淑芬、徐耀南（2014）。臺灣貿易條件、經常帳與生產力的關係。臺灣銀行季刊，65(4)，1-15。
林根興（2012）。臺灣貿易條件、實質所得與貿易餘額關係之研究－HLM效應之驗證(未出版之碩士論文)。中國文化大學國際貿易學系，台北市。
陳坤銘、郭炳伸、林信助、林家慶（2012）。新台幣實質匯率與產業升級及對外投資關係。中央銀行季刊，34(1)，3-38。
曹俊（2014）。價格貿易條件變動的經常項目效應(未出版之碩士論文)。廈門大學經濟學系，福建省，中國大陸。
張麗娟（2018）。近10年我國與韓國出口情勢分析。財政園地，67，11-19。
Blanchard, O. J. and D. Quah (1989). The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and aggregate supply disturbances. The American Economic Review, 79(4), 655-673.
Bouakez, H. and T. Kano (2008). Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(1), 260–281.
Cashin, P. and C. J. McDermott (2002). Terms of trade shocks and the current account: evidence from five industrial countries. Open Economies Review, 13, 219-235.
Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg and J. H. Stock (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836.
Granger, C. W. J. and P. Newbold (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
Harberger, A. C. (1950). Currency depreciation, income, and the balance of trade. Journal of Political Economy, 58(1), 47-60.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
Laursen, S. and L. A. Metzler (1950). Flexible exchange rates and the theory of employment. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 32(4), 281-299.
Mendoza, E. G. (1995). The terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and economic fluctuations. International Economic Review, 36(1), 101-137.
Matsuyama, K. (1988). Terms-of-trade, factor intensities and the current account in a life-cycle model. The Review of Economic Studies, 55(2), 247-262.
Obstfeld, M. (1982). Aggregate spending and the terms of trade: is there a Laursen-Metzler effect? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97(2), 251-270.
Otto, G. (2003). Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect. Journal of International Money and Finance, 22(2), 155-184.
Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48.
Sachs, J. D., R. N. Cooper and S. Fischer (1981). The current account and macroeconomic adjustment in the 1970s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 12(1), 201-282.
Svensson, L. E. O. and A. Razin (1983). The terms of trade and the current account: the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect. Journal of Political Economy, 91(1), 97-125.
Shafiullah, M., F. Islam and R. Navaratnam (2018). The Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect: evidence from five SAARC countries. Empirical Economics, 58(4), 1749–1777.
Tsen, W. H. (2009). Terms-of-trade and trade balance: some empirical evidence of Asian economies. The International Trade Journal, 23(4), 422-457.