隨著中國在亞太地區的崛起及美國川普政府的上台，中美在東南亞的戰略競爭日益激烈。大多數東協國家傾向採取在中、美之間「避險」的策略，以降低風險與潛在損失；然而，菲律賓卻展現出在中、美之間搖擺的外交特徵，這是結構現實主義理論所難以解釋的現象。為此，本研究以納入國內政治變數的「新古典現實主義」為分析視角，提出核心論點：領導人的國內支持基礎是影響其外交政策方向與穩定性的關鍵因素。當領導人政治地位穩固時，能更自主推動其認為對國家最有利的外交策略；反之，若缺乏政治安全，則傾向迎合民意以鞏固政權。在菲律賓，由於社會普遍不信任中國，故當領導人在感受到其政權的安全未鞏固時，則更可能採取抗中的政策，使菲律賓的外交從在中、美之間「避險」轉向較為「抗衡中國」的方向。透過比較艾奎諾三世（2010–2016）、杜特蒂（2016–2022）與小馬可仕（2022–2025）三位總統，本研究驗證了領導人對其政權穩定與否的感受，是菲律賓外交政策在「避險」與「抗衡中國」之間搖擺的重要影響因素。

With China’s rise in the Asia–Pacific and the advent of the Trump administration in the United States, strategic competition between China and the United States in Southeast Asia has intensified. Most ASEAN countries have tended to adopt a strategy of hedging between Beijing and Washington to mitigate risks and potential losses; however, the Philippines has exhibited a pattern of foreign policy oscillation between China and the United States, a phenomenon that structural realism alone struggles to explain. To address this puzzle, this study adopts neoclassical realism, which incorporates domestic political variables, and advances the core argument that a leader’s domestic support base is a critical determinant of the direction and stability of foreign policy. When a leader’s political position is secure, they are better able to autonomously pursue what they perceive to be the most beneficial foreign policy strategy for national interests; conversely, when political security is weak, leaders are more likely to accommodate public opinion in order to consolidate their hold on power. In the Philippine context, where public distrust of China is widespread, leaders who perceive their political position as insecure are more inclined to adopt anti-China policies, thereby shifting the country’s foreign policy orientation from hedging between China and the United States toward a more explicit balancing posture against China. Through a comparative analysis of the administrations of Benigno Aquino III (2010–2016), Rodrigo Duterte (2016–2022), and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (2022–2025), this study demonstrates that leaders’ perceptions of regime stability are a key factor driving the Philippines’ oscillation between hedging and balancing against China.

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