本文探討選民的民粹態度如何轉化為對民粹政黨的投票行為，並聚焦於國家層次經濟自由化在此關係中所扮演的調節角色。既有文獻對民粹態度與民粹投票之關聯尚無一致結論：部分研究發現兩者呈正相關，另一些研究則指出兩者並無顯著連結。為回應此一理論難題，本文主張民粹選民的投票抉擇取決於所處國家的經濟結構脈絡，並提出假設：在經濟自由化程度較高的民主國家中，全球化所引發的分配不均，更易於將選民既存的潛在民粹態度活化，進而轉化為對民粹政黨的支持；反之，在自由化程度較低的國家，此一關聯則相對薄弱。研究方法上，本文採混合研究設計檢驗上述假設。量化部分運用亞洲民主動態調查（ABS）第五波與 V-Party 資料，並以多層次模型（MLM）驗證跨國層次的調節效果。質化部分則以過程追蹤法分析台灣 2018 至 2020 年間的「韓國瑜現象」，檢視在高度經濟自由化的情境下，民粹政治的供給面如何透過「庶民」論述動員「全球化輸家」。實證結果顯示，民粹態度與經濟自由化的跨層次交互項為正且統計上顯著，並在替換貿易自由度指標與控制非線性設定下仍然穩健；台灣案例的過程追蹤測試亦進一步證實高度自由化成為民粹政治人物與民粹選民在供給與需求面上結合的因果機制成立。本文的貢獻在於嘗試闡明總體經濟結構如何影響個人政治行為，並深化全球化與民粹政治關聯的解釋框架。

This study investigates how voters' populist attitudes translate into voting behavior for populist parties, focusing centrally on the moderating role of national-level economic liberalization in this relationship. Existing literature presents inconsistent empirical findings regarding the association between populist attitudes and voting behavior: while some studies indicate a positive correlation, others find no significant link. To address this theoretical puzzle, this study argues that the voting choices of populist voters are contingent upon the country's economic structural context. Specifically, this study hypothesizes that in democracies with higher levels of economic liberalization, the distributive inequalities induced by globalization are more likely to activate voters' latent populist attitudes, thereby strengthening their support for populist parties; conversely, this association is weaker in countries with lower levels of liberalization. Methodologically, this study adopts a mixed-methods approach to test the hypothesis. The quantitative analysis utilizes data from the fifth wave of the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) and the V-Party Dataset, employing Multilevel Modeling (MLM) to verify the moderating effect at the cross-national level. The qualitative component employs the process tracing approach to examine the case of "Han Kuo-yu phenomenon" (2018–2020) in Taiwan, in which I analyze how, within a context of high economic liberalization, the supply side of populism mobilizes "globalization losers" through "commoner" (Shumin) rhetoric. This study contributes to the literature by elucidating how macro-economic structures constrain micro-political behavior, refining the explanatory framework concerning the nexus between globalization and populist politics.

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