| 研究生: |
賴彥君 Lai Yen-Chun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
美國次級房貸風暴對全球股價走勢的衝擊與影響-以DCC模型分析 Using DCC Model to Analyze the Impact of the Subprime Mortage Crisis on the Global Stock Market |
| 指導教授: |
林金龍
Lin Jin-Lung |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度: | 96 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 70 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 次級房貸 、動態條件自我相關模型 、台灣股市 、美國股市 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | subprime, DCC, Taiwan stock market, American stock market |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:311 下載:152 |
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摘要
2007年初美國發生次級房貸大量違約, 陸續有銀行倒閉, 進而撼
動整個美國與歐洲股市。一向與美國有密切貿易關係的台灣,在此事
件中到底受到多大的影響? 本文利用DCC模型探討次貸風暴前後,台
美股價間的關係是否有發生顯著的變化? 實證結果發現: 台灣與美國
的動態相關係數在次級房貸之後, 反而變小, 可見台灣的股市並未受
到很大的衝擊, 而亞洲地區的大多數國家也都與台灣相似,與美國的
動態相關係數變小,可見亞洲地區在次貸風暴中扮演著避風港的角色。
第一章序論1
第一節研究動機. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第二節次級房貸簡介. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第三節研究方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
第二章文獻回顧與模型設定4
第一節單變量GARCH模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
第二節多變量GARCH模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
第三章實證結果17
第一節資料來源. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第二節資料處理. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第三節ARCH檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
第四節VAR模型估計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
第五節DCC模型估計. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
第四章結論與建議25
第一節結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
第二節建議. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
表. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
圖. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43
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