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研究生: 宮可倫
論文名稱: 應用Nelson-Siegel系列模型預測死亡率-以英國為例
指導教授: 蔡政憲
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系
Department of Risk Management and Insurance
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 38
中文關鍵詞: 隨機死亡率模型Nelson-Siegel利率模型死亡率預測
外文關鍵詞: Stochastic mortality model, Nelson-Siegel interest rate model, Mortality forecast
相關次數: 點閱:153下載:155
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  •   Existing literature has shown that force of mortality has amazing resemblance of interest rate. It is then tempting to extend existing model of interest rate model context to mortality modeling. We apply the model in Diebold and Li (2006) and other models that belong to family of yield rate model originally proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) to forecast (force of) mortality term structure. The fitting performance of extended Nelson-Siegel model is comparable to the benchmark Lee-Carter model. While forecasting performance is no better than Lee-Carter model in younger ages, it is at the same level in elder ages. The forecasting performance increases for 5-year ahead forecast is better than 1-year ahead comparing to Lee-Carter forecast. In the end, the forecast outperforms Lee-Carter model when age dimension is trimmed to age 20-100.

    1 Introduction 1
    2 Literature Review 3
    2.1 Lee-Carter family model . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
    2.2 Nelson-Siegel family model . . . . . . . . . . . 6
    3 Modeling Mortality 9
    3.1 Notation, Assumption and Data . . . . . . . . . .9
    3.2 Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
    3.3 In-sample fitting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
    3.4 Discussion of Lt; St and Ct . . . . . . . . . . .12
    4 Forecasting Mortality 15
    4.1 Model Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
    4.2 Out-of-Sample Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . .16
    5 Conclusion 19

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