本研究探討新冠疫情對臺灣及東協十六國的貿易影響，藉由傳統引力模型以及卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法 （Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, PPML），使用 2019 年 1 月至 2022 年 9 月期間的貿易數據結合疫情確診病例數資料進行實證分析，以附加價值研究探討疫情在供應鏈貿易下對國際貿易影響的短期、後期與長期效應。此外，研究中亦計算出口國對中國中間財貿易的進口份額，考慮疫情衝擊經由中國供應鏈的間接傳遞途徑。研究結果顯示，短期內，新冠疫情對臺灣和東協十六國的出口貿易具有即時的負面效果，對中國供應鏈的參與度增加將加劇雙邊貿易的不利影響。然而，各國在後期與長期的應對策略調整下，疫情嚴重程度的影響力顯著減緩。另外，針對進口國與出口國的供應鏈相對位置進行分析，位於供應鏈上游的國家更容易受到突發性衝擊，而在相對下游的國家較能靈活調整供應鏈和生產策略以應對疫情帶來的變化。

This study investigates the effects of the pandemic on trade for Taiwan and sixteen ASEAN countries. Employing the traditional gravity model and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation (PPML), this analysis integrates trade data from January 2019 to September 2022 with COVID-19 case numbers to conduct empirical research across 17 exporting countries and 75 importing countries. The study explores the short-term, subsequent, and long-term effects of the pandemic on international trade within supply chain dynamics by analyzing added value. Additionally, the research also accounts for the import share of intermediate goods from China by the exporting countries, considering the indirect transmission of the pandemic impact through the Chinese supply chain. Results indicate that, in the short term, COVID-19 had an immediate negative impact on the exports of Taiwan and ASEAN countries, with an increase in involvement with the Chinese supply chain exacerbating the adverse bilateral trade effects. However, as countries adjusted their strategies in the later stages, the severity of the pandemic's impact significantly diminished. Moreover, the analysis of the relative positions in the supply chain shows that countries located upstream are more susceptible to sudden disruptions, while those downstream are better able to adapt their supply chains and production strategies to cope with changes brought about by the pandemic.

高珮珊 (2023)，中美貿易戰、新冠疫情、烏俄戰爭對臺灣進出口的影響。未出版之博（碩）士論文，國立政治大學，財政學系，臺北市。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/5qrfpf

張量淇 (2022)，新冠肺炎疫情對雙邊貿易的影響：以東協十加六和台灣為例。未出版之博（碩）士論文，淡江大學，產業經濟學系碩士班，新北市。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/99a75m

鄭維安 (2023)，全球新冠疫情與臺灣對外貿易流量：貿易引力模型之應用分析。未出版之博（碩）士論文，國立政治大學，國際經營與貿易學系，臺北市。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/q4u5nu

鍾美伶 (2022)，新冠肺炎(COVID-19)對台灣貿易之影響 - DID模型之應用。未出版之博（碩）士論文，國立東華大學，國際企業學系，花蓮縣。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/7jue26

Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American economic review, 93(1), 170-192.

Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic literature, 42(3), 691-751.

Aslam, A., Novta, N., & Rodrigues-Bastos, F. (2017a). Calculating trade in value added. International Monetary Fund.

Carrere, C. (2006). Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. European economic review, 50(2), 223-247.

Cheng, I.-H., & Wall, H. J. (2005). Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration.

Eppinger, P., Felbermayr, G. J., Krebs, O., & Kukharskyy, B. (2020). Covid-19 shocking global value chains.

Espitia, A., Mattoo, A., Rocha, N., Ruta, M., & Winkler, D. (2022). Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains. The World Economy, 45(2), 561-589.

Guan, D., Wang, D., Hallegatte, S., Davis, S. J., Huo, J., Li, S., Bai, Y., Lei, T., Xue, Q., & Coffman, D. M. (2020). Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures. Nature human behaviour, 4(6), 577-587.

Guilhot, L. (2010). Assessing the impact of the main East-Asian free trade agreements using a gravity model. First results. Economics Bulletin, 30(1), 282-291.

Hassani, K., & Shahwali, D. (2020). Impact of COVID 19 on international trade and China’s trade. Turkish economic review, 7(2), 103-110.

Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 60, 101135.

Kejzar, K. Z., & Velic, A. (2020). Covid-19, trade collapse and GVC linkages: European experience. Covid Economics, 61, 222-244.

Khorana, S., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Ali, S. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the Global and Intra-Commonwealth Trade in Goods. International Trade Working Paper 2021/08. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.

Kiyota, K. (2022). The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network. Journal of Asian Economics, 78, 101419.

Koopman, R., Powers, W., Wang, Z., & Wei, S.-J. (2010). Give credit where credit is due: Tracing value added in global production chains.

Koopman, R., Wang, Z., & Wei, S.-J. (2014). Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports. American economic review, 104(2), 459-494.

Larch, M., Shikher, S., Syropoulos, C., & Yotov, Y. V. (2022). Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors. Economic Inquiry, 60(3), 1038-1063.

Naseer, S., Khalid, S., Parveen, S., Abbass, K., Song, H., & Achim, M. V. (2023). COVID-19 outbreak: Impact on global economy. Frontiers in public health, 10, 1009393.

Phillips, C. A., Caldas, A., Cleetus, R., Dahl, K. A., Declet-Barreto, J., Licker, R., Merner, L. D., Ortiz-Partida, J. P., Phelan, A. L., & Spanger-Siegfried, E. (2020). Compound climate risks in the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Climate Change, 10(7), 586-588.

Pinar, T., ALTUN, A., & YANIKKAYA, H. (2023). The Early Impacts of Covid-19 on Production in Türkiye: An Analysis of International Production Chains. International Review of Economics and Management, 11(1), 17-34.

Raei, M. F., Ignatenko, A., & Mircheva, M. (2019). Global value chains: what are the benefits and why do countries participate? International Monetary Fund.

Tyazhelnikov, V., Romalis, J., & Long, Y. (2022). Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation. Working Paper.

Urata, S., & Okabe, M. (2010). The impacts of free trade agreements on trade flows: An application of the gravity model approach. Free trade agreements in the Asia Pacific, 11(1), 195-240.

Vo, T. D., & Tran, M. D. (2021). The impact of covid-19 pandemic on the global trade. International Journal of Social Science and Economics Invention, 7(1), 1-7.

Yao, X., Zhang, Y., Yasmeen, R., & Cai, Z. (2021). The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis. PloS one, 16(3), e0249118.