本研究旨在探討匯率對貨幣流通速度之影響。以臺灣作為小型開放經濟體之典型案例，蒐集 1997 年第一季至 2024 年第四季之季資料，將貨幣流通速度以名目 GDP 除以貨幣總計數 M2 之比率衡量，匯率採中央銀行公布之新臺幣對美元銀行間成交之匯率，並納入實質 GDP、金融業拆款利率、固定資本形成與金融機構放款等總體變數，以確保估計在循環與結構層面皆具可比性與可重現性。方法上，本研究先以 ADF 與 PP 單根檢定檢視各變數整合階數，重點在確認不存在 I（2）以符合 ARDL 邊界檢定法之前提；續以 ARDL 邊界檢定法檢驗是否存在長期共整合關係，並在該基礎上採用 ARDL-ECM 模型辨識長期與短期效應，以誤差修正項刻畫偏離均衡後之收斂速度，另透過殘差診斷檢定確認模型適切性與估計結果之穩健性，同時，為補充檢視變數間之動態關聯，另搭配 Toda-Yamamoto MWALD 格蘭傑因果檢定作為補充分析。實證結果顯示：在控制景氣與循環因子後，貨幣流通速度呈現明確之順週期性；新臺幣貶值與貨幣流通速度在長期存在正向關聯，顯示外需擴張與結算頻率提升，對於資金周轉效率具推升效果；金融機構放款作為金融深化代理，對長期貨幣流通速度則為負向關聯，反映信用擴張伴隨準貨幣沉澱之影響。整體而言，貨幣流通速度函數在納入匯率與關鍵循環因子後可回復穩定，且均衡調整機制運作良好。本研究之貢獻在於：從匯率視角重估臺灣貨幣流通速度函數的穩定性與決定因子，並為政策評估外部衝擊與金融監理之協調提供經驗證據。

This study investigates the impact of the exchange rate on money velocity. Using Taiwan as a representative small open economy, the study employs quarterly data from 1997Q1 to 2024Q4. Money velocity is measured as nominal GDP divided by broad money (M2), while the exchange rate is proxied by the New Taiwan dollar–U.S. dollar interbank transaction rate published by the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). The model further controls for real GDP, the interbank money market interest rate, gross fixed capital formation, and bank lending to ensure comparability and replicability across cyclical and structural dimensions. Methodologically, the study first conducts ADF and PP unit root tests to identify integration orders, with particular emphasis on confirming the absence of I(2) variables as a prerequisite for the ARDL bounds testing approach. It then applies the ARDL bounds test to examine whether a long-run cointegration relationship exists and, conditional on cointegration, estimates an ARDL–ECM to distinguish long-run and short-run effects, using the error-correction term to characterize the speed of convergence back to equilibrium after deviations. Residual diagnostic tests are additionally performed to confirm model adequacy and the robustness of inference. To supplement the assessment of dynamic linkages among variables, the Toda–Yamamoto MWALD Granger causality test is also employed. Empirical results show that money velocity is clearly pro-cyclical after controlling for business-cycle and related factors; in the long run, New Taiwan dollar depreciation is positively associated with money velocity, suggesting that external-demand expansion and higher settlement frequency may enhance the efficiency of fund turnover; by contrast, bank lending, serving as a proxy for financial deepening, exhibits a negative long-run relationship with velocity, indicating that credit expansion may be accompanied by an accumulation of quasi-money balances. Overall, incorporating the exchange rate and key cyclical controls improves the stability of the money-velocity function and supports a well-functioning equilibrium adjustment mechanism. This study contributes by reassessing the stability and determinants of Taiwan’s money-velocity function from an exchange-rate perspective and by providing empirical evidence to inform policy evaluation regarding external shocks and the coordination of financial regulation.

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