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研究生: 馬薇妮
Aswini Kumar
論文名稱: 科技地緣政治與中等強國 : 臺灣與印度之比較研究
Technogeopolitics and Middle Power: A Comparative Study of Taiwan and India
指導教授: 劉復國
Fu-Kuo Liu
口試委員: 劉德海
Liou, To-Hai
林超琪
Lin, Chao-Chi
姚宏旻
Yau, Hon-min
Kossa, Martin
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
International Doctor Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IDAS)
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 263
中文關鍵詞: 科技導向中等強權(TOMP美中科技競爭武器化相互依賴科技民族主義半導體地緣政治台灣印度印太
外文關鍵詞: Technology-Oriented Middle Power (TOMP);, US-China Technology Competition, Weaponized Interdependence, Techno-Nationalism, Semiconductor Geopolitics, Taiwan, India, Indo-Pacific
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  • 美中科技競爭的加劇已在印太地區產生劇烈的結構性壓力,然而科技導向中等強權(technology-oriented middle powers, TOMPs)的回應方式卻明顯各異。本論文探討科技導向中等強權(TOMPs)在美中科技對抗中為何採取不同的戰略態勢,以及結構性制約如何形塑其能動性(agency)。本文以半導體為核心的印太科技秩序為背景,發展出一項針對台灣與印度的比較案例研究。本論文將TOMP定義為具有全球重要科技能力、在科技價值鏈中占據結構性不可替代地位,並將科技能力作為地緣政治工具運用於治國策略中的中等強權。本文區分出兩種次類型:台灣作為一個以內在扼制點權力(intrinsic chokepoint power)為根基、致力於維持不可或缺性的TOMP;印度則作為一個透過供應鏈整合、市場規模與數位能力尋求位置性籌碼(positional leverage)的包容性、多元化TOMP。科技地緣政治能動性架構(Techno-geopolitical Agency Framework, TGAF)整合了新現實主義(neo-realism)、武器化相互依賴(weaponized interdependence)、科技民族主義(techno-nationalism)與鑲嵌式重商主義治國策略(embedded mercantilist statecraft),以解釋此種差異。本研究採用質性比較案例研究方法,運用政策文件分析、過程追蹤(process tracing)與次級資料綜合分析。本研究的貢獻包括TOMP概念構念、內在性/位置性扼制點(intrinsic/positional chokepoint)之區分,以及以台印半導體協調為例證的「TOMP對TOMP合作」(TOMP-to-TOMP cooperation)概念。本文進一步推進了中等強權能動性、半導體地緣政治,以及戰略性科技競爭下國際政治經濟學等領域的學術研究。


    The intensification of US-China technological competition has generated acute structural pressures across the Indo-Pacific, yet technology-oriented middle powers (TOMPs) have responded in markedly divergent ways. This study addresses why technology-oriented middle powers (TOMPs) adopt different strategic postures amid U.S.-China technological rivalry and how structural constraints shape their agency. It develops a comparative case study of Taiwan and India within the semiconductor-centered Indo-Pacific technology order.
    The study defines TOMPs as middle powers with globally significant technological capabilities, a structurally non-substitutable position in technology value chains, and statecraft strategies that use technological capability as a geopolitical instrument. It distinguishes two subtypes: Taiwan as an indispensability-preserving TOMP anchored in intrinsic chokepoint power, and India as an inclusive-diversifying TOMP seeking positional leverage through supply-chain integration, market scale, and digital capacity.
    The Techno-geopolitical Agency Framework (TGAF) integrates neo-realism, weaponized interdependence, techno-nationalism, and embedded mercantilist statecraft to explain this variation. The study employs qualitative comparative case study methodology, drawing on policy document analysis, process tracing, and secondary source synthesis. The study contributes the TOMP construct, the intrinsic/positional chokepoint distinction, and the concept of TOMP-to-TOMP cooperation, illustrated by Taiwan-India semiconductor coordination. It advances scholarship on middle power agency, semiconductor geopolitics, and international political economy under strategic technological competition.

    Abstract 4
    Abbreviations 12
    Definition of Key Terms 14
    1 Introduction 17
    1.1 Background and Context 17
    1.1.1 Implications on Indo-Pacific Players and Why Middle Powers Matter 21
    1.1.2 Taiwan and India at the Technological Crossroads 24
    1.2 Statement of Problem 27
    1.3 Research Questions 31
    1.4 Research Aims and Objectives 32
    1.5 Analytical Framework of the study 33
    1.6 Significance of the Study and Contribution 34
    1.7 Research Scope and Limitations 36
    1.7.1 Terminology, Scope, and Academic Neutrality 37
    1.8 Research Methodology 38
    1.8.1 Methodological Framework 38
    1.8.2 Research Approach 38
    1.8.3 Research Design 39
    1.8.3.1 Why Taiwan and India: Comparative Case Selection Justification 40
    1.8.4 Data Collection Methods 42
    1.8.5 Documentary Analysis 42
    1.8.6 Policy Document Analysis 44
    1.8.7 Semi-structured Elite Interviews 45
    1.8.8 Sampling Strategy 45
    1.8.9 Data Analysis Methods 46
    1.9 Ethical Considerations and AI Usage 47
    1.10 Structure of The Study 48
    CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 50
    2.1 Introduction 50
    PART I: LITERATURE REVIEW 50
    2.2 Technology and International Relations Theory 50
    2.2.1 Traditional Power-Based Approaches 51
    2.2.2 Why Liberal Institutionalist Accounts Are Set Aside 52
    2.2.3 Emerging Frameworks for Technology in International Relations 53
    2.2.4 Research Gaps in Technology and International Relations Theory 55
    2.3 Semiconductor Industry as Strategic Technology 56
    2.3.1 Semiconductors as Critical Infrastructure 56
    2.3.2 Global Value Chain Evolution and Concentration 57
    2.3.3 Strategic Implications of Semiconductor Dependence 59
    2.3.4 Policy Responses and Industrial Strategies 60
    2.3.5 Middle Power Semiconductor Strategies 61
    2.4 US-China Technology Competition 61
    2.4.1 From Economic Rivalry to Strategic Competition 62
    The Obama Era (2009-2017): Erosion of Engagement and the Precursors of Containment. 62
    Trump 1.0 (2017-2021): The Rupture and the Weaponization of the Entity List. 63
    The Biden Administration (2021-2025): Small Yard, High Fence 64
    Trump 2.0 (2025-Present): The Pivot to G2 Bargaining 64
    2.4.2 Multidimensional Contest 65
    2.4.3 Policy Evolution and Institutional Responses 67
    2.4.4 Theoretical Debates and Future Trajectories 68
    2.4.5 Implications for Middle Powers 68
    2.5 Taiwan’s Position in the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain 69
    2.5.1 Strategic Implications of Taiwan’s Semiconductor Position 69
    2.5.2 Vulnerabilities and Challenges 71
    2.5.3 Taiwan’s Technology Diplomacy 72
    2.5.4 Taiwan-India Technology Relations 73
    2.6 India’s Emerging Role in Technology Geopolitics 74
    2.6.1 The Distinctive Indian Technology Ecosystem 74
    2.6.2 Evolution of India’s Technology Policy 75
    2.6.3 Strategic Drivers of India’s Technology Focus 76
    2.6.4 India-China Technology Relations 77
    2.6.5 India-Taiwan Technology Relations 77
    2.7 Technology Alliances in the Indo-Pacific 78
    2.8 Research Gap 79
    PART II: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 81
    2.9 Neo-Realism and Technology Competition 81
    2.9.1 Power Distribution and Technology Capability 81
    2.9.2 Security Dilemmas in Technology Relations 83
    2.9.3 Limitations of Neo-Realist Approaches and the Refinement Adopted 84
    2.10 Mercantilism and Neo-Mercantilism in Technology Statecraft 84
    2.10.1 Classical Mercantilism and Its Extension to Technology 85
    2.10.2 Neo-Mercantilism and the Asian Developmental State 85
    2.10.3 Digital Neo-Mercantilism and Strategic Sectors 86
    2.10.4 Mercantilism and Middle Power Strategy 87
    2.11 Weaponized Interdependence 88
    2.11.1 The Farrell and Newman Framework 88
    2.11.2 Application to the Semiconductor Value Chain 89
    2.11.3 Cross-Network Weaponization and Counter-Leverage 90
    2.11.4 Refinements and Critiques 90
    2.12 Techno-Nationalism 91
    2.12.1 Technology as National Security and Identity 92
    2.12.2 Contemporary Techno-Nationalist Policy Approaches 93
    2.12.3 Implications for Middle Power Technology Strategies 94
    2.12.4 Limitations of Techno-Nationalist Frameworks 95
    2.13 Middle Power Theory, Technology, and the TOMP Conceptual Gap 95
    2.13.1 Middle Powers Definition 96
    2.13.2 Technology-Capable and ‘Tech Middle Powers’ in Existing Literature 98
    2.13.3 Technogeopolitics: Definition, Dimensions, and Causal Logic 102
    2.13.4 Neoclassical Realism: Bridging International Systems and Domestic Politics 103
    2.13.5 Distinguishing the TOMP Framework from Adjacent Concepts 107
    2.13.6 Theoretical Frames Excluded from the Framework 110
    2.14 An Integrated Framework and the Technology-Oriented Middle Power (TOMP) Construct 111
    2.14.1 Defining the Technology-Oriented Middle Power 112
    2.14.2 TOMP Sub-Types: Indispensability-Preserving and Inclusive-Diversifying 113
    2.14.3 Operational Hypotheses 114
    2.14.4 Framework Limitations and Boundary Conditions 114
    2.15 Chapter 2 Summary 116
    CHAPTER 3: THE UNITED STATES-CHINA TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION 118
    3.1 Introduction 118
    3.2 The Obama Era (2009 to 2017): Engagement Erodes and Containment Emerges 119
    3.3 Trump 1.0 (2017 to 2021): Strategic Competition, Tariffs, the Entity List, and the Foreign Direct Product Rule 124
    3.4 The Biden Administration (2021 to 2025): The Small Yard, High Fence 128
    3.5 Trump 2.0 (2025 to the Present): The Pivot to Bargained Chokepoints 130
    3.6 The Multidimensional Character of the Contest 132
    3.6.1 The Security Dimension 133
    3.6.2 The Economic and Supply-Chain Dimension 133
    3.6.3 The Standards and Governance Dimension 134
    3.7 The China’s Counter-Strategy and Technology Self-Reliance: Strategic Imperative in the Governance Paradigm 135
    3.7.1 Industrial-Policy Intensification 137
    3.7.2 Symmetric Chokepoint Construction 137
    3.7.3 Extraterritorial Jurisdiction and Data Sovereignty 138
    3.7.4 Alternative International Platforms 138
    3.8 The Institutional Architecture of Plurilateral Technology Statecraft 139
    3.8.1 The Bilateral United States Enforcement Layer 139
    3.8.2 The CHIP4 Plurilateral Layer Under Strain 139
    3.8.3 The Quad and IPEF Layer 141
    3.8.4 The European Union Convergence Layer 143
    3.9 Theoretical Synthesis: Reading the Trajectory Through the Four Pillars 143
    3.9.1 The Neo-Realist Pillar 144
    3.9.2 The Mercantilist Pillar 144
    3.9.3 The Weaponized Interdependence Pillar 145
    3.9.4 The Techno-Nationalist Pillar 145
    3.10 Implications for Technology-Oriented Middle Powers 146
    3.11 Chapter 3 Summary 147
    CHAPTER 4: COMPARATIVE CASE STUDIES OF TAIWAN AND INDIA AS TECHNOLOGY-ORIENTED MIDDLE POWERS 148
    4.1 Introduction 148
    4.2 Methodological Note on the Paired Comparison 148
    4.2.1 Bilateral Relations as the Context of Technology Strategy 149
    4.3 Taiwan: The Indispensability-Preserving Technology-Oriented Middle Power 151
    4.3.1 The Historical Formation of Taiwan’s Semiconductor Capability 151
    4.3.2 The Contemporary Industrial Architecture 159
    4.3.3 Taiwan’s Mercantilist Statecraft 161
    4.3.4 Taiwan’s Strategic Chokepoint Position within Networked Interdependence 165
    4.3.5 Techno-Nationalism and the Silicon Shield as Identity 166
    4.3.6 Vulnerabilities and Structural Constraints 168
    4.3.7 Taiwan’s Technology Diplomacy under Bipolarity 171
    4.4 India: The Inclusive-Diversifying Technology-Oriented Middle Power 172
    4.4.1. India’s Technology Strategy in Bilateral and Multilateral Context 173
    4.4.2 The Historical Formation of India’s Technology Ecosystem 177
    4.4.3 The Contemporary Industrial Architecture 178
    4.4.4 India’s Mercantilist Statecraft: Semicon India and Atmanirbhar Bharat 179
    4.4.5 India’s Weaponized Interdependence Position: Emerging Chokepoint and Demand-Side Leverage 180
    4.4.6 Techno-Nationalism and Digital Sovereignty 181
    4.4.7 India-China Technology Relations under Bipolarity 182
    4.4.8 India’s Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment 183
    4.4.9 How Bilateral Relations Shape Technology Strategy 183
    4.4.10 Understanding TOMP Divergence: A Multi-Dimensional Comparative Analysis 184
    4.5 Comparative Analysis: Returning the Two Cases to the Integrated Framework 186
    4.5.1 Structural Position Compared 186
    4.5.2 Mercantilist Statecraft Compared 187
    4.5.3 Weaponized Interdependence Position Compared 187
    4.5.4 Techno-Nationalism Compared 188
    4.5.5 Convergent and Divergent Strategic Outcomes 188
    4.6 The Taiwan-India Technology Partnership as TOMP-to-TOMP Coordination 189
    4.6.1 The Tata Electronics-PSMC Dholera Partnership 189
    4.6.2 Other Pillars of the Bilateral Relationship 190
    4.6.3 Why TOMP-to-TOMP Cooperation Works 191
    4.6.4 Constraints and Risks 191
    4.6.5 Future Challenges, Opportunities, and Scenarios 192
    4.7 Chapter 4 Summary 194
    CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 195
    5.1 Introduction 195
    5.2 Synthesis of the Empirical Findings 195
    5.2.1 The Trajectory of United States-China Technology Competition Is Structurally Driven and Robust Across Administrations 195
    5.2.2 Taiwan Operates the Indispensability-Preserving TOMP Strategy 196
    5.2.3 India Operates the Inclusive-Diversifying TOMP Strategy 197
    5.2.4 Taiwan-India Coordination Is Best Read as Paradigmatic TOMP-to-TOMP Cooperation 197
    5.3 Theoretical Contributions of the Dissertation 198
    5.3.1 The Technology-Oriented Middle Power Construct 198
    5.3.2 The Indispensability-Preserving and Inclusive-Diversifying Sub-Types 199
    5.3.3 The Integrated Techno-geopolitical Agency Framework (TGAF) 199
    5.3.4 The Intrinsic Versus Positional Chokepoint Distinction 200
    5.3.5 TOMP-to-TOMP Cooperation as a Distinct Mode of Coordination 201
    5.4 Empirical Contributions of the Dissertation 201
    5.4.1 A Calibrated Account of the United States-China Technology Trajectory Through Trump 2.0 202
    5.4.2 The Operational Anatomy of Bargained Chokepoints 202
    5.4.3 The Tata-PSMC Partnership as a Paradigmatic Case 202
    5.5 Policy Implications 203
    5.5.1 Implications for Taiwan 203
    5.5.2 Implications for India 204
    5.5.3 Implications for the United States 204
    5.5.4 Implications for China and the Wider System 205
    5.5.5 The Geopolitical Impact of Technology Competition on TOMP Agency 205
    5.6 Limitations and Boundary Conditions 206
    5.6.1 Scope Limitations 206
    5.6.2 Methodological Limitations 206
    5.6.3 Theoretical Boundary Conditions 207
    5.7 A Research Agenda for the Further Development of TOMP Theory 207
    5.7.1 Extending the TOMP Construct to Additional Cases 207
    5.7.2 Extending the Framework to Adjacent Technology Domains 208
    5.7.3 Quantitative Operationalization 208
    5.7.4 The Future of Plurilateral Technology Coordination 208
    5.7.5 The Domestic Politics of TOMP Statecraft 209
    5.8 Future Scenarios for the Indo-Pacific Technology Order 209
    5.9. Concluding Reflections 210
    References 212
    Appendix A: Semi-Structured Interview Protocol and Interviewee Categories 245
    A.1 Interviewee Categories 245
    A.2 Core Interview Questions and Responses 245

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