論文提要

惡性通貨膨脹的經驗雖然苦不堪言，但是它提供了一個觀察人們預期心理如何影響經濟變數的絕佳機會。因為物價的快速上漲，使得除了通貨膨脹率此外的變數都顯得無足輕重。

P.Cagan在他1956年的經典作“Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation.”裡，把通貨膨脹率的預期引入模型，但最後解釋惡性通貨膨脹的形成原因時，卻沒有將預期行為的力量表示出來。本論文認為：旣然引入預期變數，那麼預期產生的效果將與外生的貨幣數量變動共同決定通貨膨脹率。這是本論文的第一個工作。

近幾年來，理性預期假說（Rational Expectations Hypothesis）漸漸廣泛地受到學者們的注意。我們利用台灣36〜38年間的資料找出一組符合理性預期的通貨膨脹率預期。將它與由Cagan的適應性預期假說（Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis）所導出的通貨膨脹率預期分別代入貨幣需求函數，看看是否有什麼差異存在。這是第二項工作。

嘗試著解釋台灣當時惡性通貨膨脹的成因則是本論文的第三個工作。

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