| 研究生: |
郭佳妮 Guo, Jia-Ni |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
簡單性偏好 : 來自台灣刮刮樂市場的證據 Simplicity Preference: Evidence from the Taiwan Scratch-off Lottery Market |
| 指導教授: |
周冠男
Chou, Robin K. |
| 口試委員: |
盧建霖
Lu, Chien-Lin 邱健嘉 Chiou, Jian-Jia |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 財務管理學系 Department of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 29 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 簡單性偏好 、有限注意力 、啟發式決策 、台灣彩券 、刮刮樂 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Simplicity Preference, Limited Attention, Heuristic Decision, Taiwan Lottery, Scratch Lottery |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:3 下載:0 |
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本研究以台灣即開型彩券(刮刮樂)市場為對象,探討產品設計的複雜度如何影響銷售表現,並驗證消費者的簡單性偏好(Simplicity Preference)、有限注意力與啟發式決策行為。研究採用 2023 年 8 月至 2025 年 8 月期間發行的 172 檔台灣刮刮樂產品作為樣本,透過普通最小平方法(OLS)進行實證分析。
實證結果顯示:第一,獎項種類數(Outcome)對銷售率具有顯著的負向影響,證實了消費者在面對風險決策時存在「簡單性偏好」,即結構越簡單的產品越受歡迎。第二,代表產品基本面價值的期望報酬淨值(NPV)對銷售率無顯著影響,說明消費者受限於認知資源,傾向於忽略計算成本高昂的資訊,符合「有限注意力」與「理性疏忽」假說。第三,整體獲獎率(Winrate)作為一種具備感官顯著性的特徵,對銷售表現有極顯著的正向驅動作用。
本研究結論指出,在具有博弈性質的市場中,產品的「簡單性」與「顯著特徵」比起客觀的經濟價值更能驅動消費行為。這為彩券發行商在產品設計上提供了的行為金融學建議。
This study examines the Taiwan scratch lottery market to investigate how product design complexity affects sales performance and to verify consumers' Simplicity Preference, Limited Attention, and Heuristic Decision-making behaviors. Using a sample of 172 scratch lottery products issued by the Taiwan Lottery Company between August 2023 and August 2025, the research conducts an empirical analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression.
The empirical findings are as follows: First, the number of prize tiers (Outcomes) has a significant negative impact on sales rates, supporting the "Simplicity Preference" theory which suggests that consumers prefer products with simpler structures when making risky decisions. Second, the Net Present Value (NPV), representing the fundamental economic value, shows no significant impact on sales, indicating that consumers tend to ignore information with high processing costs due to cognitive constraints, consistent with the "Limited Attention" and "Rational Inattention" hypotheses. Third, the overall Winrate, acting as a salient feature, significantly and positively drives sales performance.
The study concludes that in gambling-related markets, product "simplicity" and "salient features" are more influential in driving consumer behavior than objective economic value. These findings provide behavioral finance insights for lottery issuers regarding product design.
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 1
2. Literature Review 4
2.1 Simplicity Preference 4
2.2 Limited Attention 5
2.3 Heuristic Decision 6
2.4 Hypothesis 8
3. Data and Methodology 10
3.1 Sample Selection 10
3.2 Variable definition 11
3.3Methodology 14
4. Empirical Results 15
4.1 Descriptive Statistics 15
4.2 Regression Results of the Baseline Model 18
4.3 Diagnostic Tests 19
4.4 Regression Results of the Revised Model 22
5. Conclusion 25
6. References 26
Appendix 29
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